Brothers, the journey in the rivers and lakes is not afraid of distance, encountering like-minded friends along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiang Ye.

At 2 AM Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, with a press conference at 2:30 PM to update the dot plot. The market has already fully priced in the expectations for interest rate hikes, and the core of this game lies in not whether there will be a rate hike, but in the number of subsequent rate hikes indicated by the dot plot, and whether Waller's speech leans hawkish or dovish.

1. Macroeconomic Logic: Expectations Have Been Priced In, Three Key Observations

Many people are entangled in several viewpoints: thinking that if Trump tends to lower interest rates, there will be no rate hike; or that the high scale of US debt means the Federal Reserve can't handle rate hikes. Such logic is one-sided. If inflation persists, the pressure of tightening liquidity will not disappear due to debt issues, and the real feedback from market funds is much more worthy of reference than various rumors.

In this meeting, focus on three things: ✅ Dot Plot: Expectations of officials for future interest rates. If the dot plot retains space for rate hikes within the year, it will put pressure on the market; if it releases signals that rate hikes are nearing an end, there may be opportunities for a rebound after negative news is priced in. ✅ Waller's Press Conference Statements: Is there more concern about inflation or employment, and will subsequent policies retain flexible space? A single sentence can change the short-term direction of the market. ✅ Fund Verification: After the decision is made, do not blindly enter the market upon seeing the first sharp rise or drop. Pay close attention to whether prices can stabilize, the continuity of large orders, and whether Bitcoin and ETH trends are synchronized.

On the on-chain level, a large amount of Bitcoin has been transferred to exchanges, and it is temporarily unclear whether this is for staking or selling, which could be a potential signal of bearish sentiment. Additionally, South Korea's cryptocurrency legislation has been postponed until 2027, and the market is focused entirely on this Federal Reserve decision.

My market simulation: Before the decision is made, the market is likely to maintain range-bound fluctuations, making it difficult to establish a clean unilateral trend. After the data is announced, there will likely be a brief tap, with a rebound possible after negative news is priced in, but do not expect a violent surge; it will merely be a rebound recovery; if the decision is compounded with hawkish remarks, then there is still the potential for further downside after the rebound.

Important principle: On the eve of the interest rate decision, keep all trades light, do not hold positions overnight, and adjust thinking in the direction of the news after it is released.

2. Bitcoin BTC | Range: 76388~77725, Short-Term Overbought Exists with Correction Pressure

Current price: 77650 The current round rebounded from the low of 76388, reaching a high of 77725; it has entered the overbought range on the 15-minute level, indicating short-term correction demand. The bullish momentum is released on the 1-hour level, but the 4-hour higher time frame remains in a bearish structure, and the rebound is temporarily defined as a corrective movement under bearish conditions.

▎Resistance Zone First resistance: 77700-78000 (1-hour Bollinger middle track + short-term consolidation platform) Strong resistance: 78300-78500

▎Support Zone Core support: 76500-76800 Strong support: 75600-76000

Range Ideas: 🔹 If the rebound meets resistance in the 77500-78000 range, and a long upper shadow and top-type signal appear on the 15-minute chart, one can light trade for a bearish fall; stop loss at 78300, target looking at 76800→76500, intraday trades, do not hold overnight. 🔹 If the price stabilizes after retracing to 76500-76800 and a stop-loss pattern appears on the 15-minute, it is suitable for light short-term trading for a rebound; stop loss at 76200, target near 77500, take profit at resistance level decisively.

Reminder: If the price cannot stabilize above 77500, there remains the possibility of a further drop to lower points.

3. ETH | Range: 2460~2515, More Volatile, Positions Must Be More Conservative

Current price: 2512 ETH has rebounded from the low of 2460, but the overall trend is weaker than Bitcoin, and the large trend remains bearish, with volatility more pronounced; contract trading must further reduce positions.

▎Resistance Zone First resistance: 2515-2530 Strong resistance: 2545-2560

▎Support Zone Core support: 2460-2480 Strong support: 2430-2435

Range Ideas: 🔹 If the rebound encounters pressure in the 2515-2530 range, try a light short; stop loss at 2550, target 2480→2460, quick in and out. 🔹 If the price stabilizes after retracing to 2460-2480 and a stop-loss signal appears, it is suitable for light trading for a short-term rebound; stop loss at 2440, target near 2515, exit decisively at resistance level.

Reminder: Going long above 2500 has a poor risk-reward ratio; prioritize a resistance-based trading strategy.

4. Gold | 4300 is the Watershed for Bullish and Bearish, Range-Bound Waiting for News Catalyst

Current price: 4338 Gold is oscillating back and forth around the 4300 watershed, with previous lows at 4295 showing buying support. However, as rate hike expectations heat up, the difficulty of a short-term upward breakthrough is considerable; a rebound space may arise only after the wind dies down.

▎Resistance Zone First resistance: 4350-4360 Strong resistance: 4380-4400

▎Support Zone Core support: 4300-4310 Strong support: 4280-4295

Range Ideas: 🔹 If the rebound at 4350-4360 meets resistance, light trading for a drop; stop loss at 4380, target 4310→4300. 🔹 If the price stabilizes after retracing to 4300-4310, light trading for a rebound; stop loss at 4285, target near 4350, quick in and out on short-term trades.

5. Conclusion

The Federal Reserve decision in the early hours of September 17 is the core variable of this round of market activity. Prior to the decision, the market is mainly range-bound, and the range ideas for the three commodities are summarized as follows:

• Bitcoin: The rebound at 77500-78000 mainly meets resistance, and retracement to the low points is only for short-term trading.

• ETH: Clear resistance above 2515, with greater volatility, position must be strictly controlled.

• Gold: Competing around the watershed of 4300, pressure opportunities near 4350 take priority.

Core Discipline: All trades should be light, with stop losses, and no overnight positions. There are two forecast scenarios after the decision: ① Benchmark scenario: a brief spike, a rebound after negative news is priced in; this is a repair market, not a reversal. ② Hawkish scenario: rate hikes combined with hawkish statements, continuing downward after a brief rebound.

💬 Interactive Topic: How many rate hikes do you think Waller will mention in this meeting? Will the dot plot lean hawkish or dovish? Share your judgment in the comments.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is only a technical logic simulation of the market, for reference and exchange only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The financial market is highly volatile, and contract trading carries extremely high risks; please trade rationally, strictly control positions, and carry stop losses at your own risk.

Thank you to all the family members for your trust and companionship; the market changes rapidly, and stable compounding is the long-term way. I am Jiang Ye, see you next time.

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