The total downward depth of Bitcoin over the past two days is barely 1000 points. I reminded everyone yesterday that after general market fluctuations, the second day is usually the period for profits. Stagnating for a day is also to clear one's mind and guide users; returning to the analysis, there isn’t much to discuss, and the market operation is still under control. With Wall Street fully pricing in the probability of interest rate hikes, we now just need to see how many times Kevin Warsh is prepared to increase rates. If Kevin Warsh does not follow market rules and attempts to challenge market expectations, one can refer to the previous Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan, who unilaterally changed the interest rate path, resulting in the market giving him a harsh slap; short-term bond yields soared, long-term bonds became uncontrollable, and in the end, he had no choice but to bow to the market. I know many people say Trump will lower interest rates, that he cannot raise rates, and that with US debt at 40 trillion dollars, he cannot raise rates without being able to pay interest. Such statements really do not hold up under scrutiny. If he indeed dares not to raise rates, the market will demonstrate liquidity exhaustion to you.

Any data could potentially be faked, but market liquidity and market value feedback are two things that cannot be faked. There is no need to delve deeply into the interest rate hike issue; the question we face now is whether we will enter a rate hike cycle? Once the cyclical rate hikes arrive, the depth of Bitcoin will only deepen. This time, everyone can pay attention to the dot plot; different forms of presentation will lead to different results. Looking at oil prices, it is indeed hard to say, as Iran clearly does not want Trump to have it easy. Capital circulation in the crypto space is also very interesting, with thousands of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges; whether this is for staking or selling still needs to be observed in subsequent actions. It is obvious that the preparations of the whales are aimed at setting up for short positions, and for those engaged in contracts, this period should return to the crypto market. Recently, Korea's digital currency bill has also been postponed to 2027, and everyone is waiting for signals from the Americans.

Old Cui summarizes: Overall, it completely aligns with our previous estimates; the news and technical aspects in the market are still leaning towards bears. However, the downward force is indeed not deep, and the only situation that can cause a market reversal is the strategy from the Americans; be it interest rate hikes or legislation, both are evidently beneficial to bears in the short term, making shorting the main theme. This situation will not last long, and answers will be provided to everyone within these two days; those with risk awareness can wait a bit. Volatility in the market does not necessarily favor profits; the best time to profit is after the news and during the correction phase. At least for this month, the original posture will be maintained and the depth will deepen; there is no need to rush into the current market. Old Cui is only afraid that everyone will lose their chips during the fluctuations; spot users must buy within this downward range and should not wait for a new absolute low.

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