Next week the most important thing is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, how important it is, everyone knows. Although I personally believe there will be no interest rate hike, my viewpoint may not be correct, and the market will not necessarily follow my opinion. If I am wrong, then an interest rate hike could be destructive for the market, which means the Federal Reserve might go further down an aggressive path.

In simpler terms, one interest rate hike may not solve the inflation problem in the United States. If Pandora's box is opened, it is very likely that interest rate hikes will again become the Federal Reserve's weapon against inflation, which means that either a recession will come faster, or high interest rates will be maintained for a longer time. Neither is good for the U.S. stock market or Bitcoin, but currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve will not change interest rates.

Aside from the Federal Reserve, the negotiations between Iran and Gulf countries next Monday are also very important. Opening new shipping routes should be without question, and Iran starting to charge for the Strait of Hormuz is also highly probable. However, when this route can officially open for business is the most troublesome issue, especially after Iran prepares to clash with the United States. Will they wait until after the mid-term elections to open and then delay the U.S. for three more months?

If that’s the case, as long as Iran announces that the route will automatically open at a certain time, it could alleviate some global anxiety over rising oil prices. But if Iran says nothing, and the U.S. allows the Strait of Hormuz to be left to its own devices, it is indeed possible that oil prices will rise again, but an increase in oil prices will be a disaster for global inflation.

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