Ducati, a hundred billion waiting to be sold.
Author Pu Fan
This article has 3427 words
Handmade count丨88% AI content丨18%
How to highlight a person's powerful aura? The Hollywood filmmakers who understand visual language the best will tell you to equip them with a heavy motorcycle.
In the Hollywood universe, every tough guy rides a motorcycle. Venom rides a motorcycle, Wolverine rides a motorcycle, Captain America rides a motorcycle, Ghost Rider rides a motorcycle, as if the louder the roar of the engine, the stronger the protagonist's fighting power becomes, and even the domestic film and television industry has accepted this setting. For example, in the phenomenally popular TV drama "Raging", to highlight Gao Qiqiang's son Gao Xiaocheng as a reckless young master, he was also given a "Ducati 1199".
(Film screenshot)
However, in the real world, this product that has brought an aura of heroes to countless people is quickly turning into "a useless item".
Recently, several media outlets reported that Volkswagen is seriously considering selling its motorcycle brand Ducati. Audi CEO (Ducati is a subsidiary under Volkswagen's Audi Group) Gernot Döllner subsequently confirmed the authenticity of the news, stating that "the group is reviewing its current asset portfolio" and will adjust based on the principle of "improving efficiency and focusing on core businesses," with the sale of Ducati being one of the potential options. However, as of now, Volkswagen Group "has not made any decisions."
“We actually don't need Volkswagen”
Ducati was established in 1926, exactly 100 years ago. Before 1945, the company was involved in radio manufacturing, and after World War II, the factory was bombed by the Allies. The company was forced to seek new avenues and produced its first motorcycle with an external engine in 1946, nicknamed the "Horsepower Dog."
In 1954, legendary engineer Dr. T joined Ducati. He is the true technical pioneer of the brand, helping Ducati produce motorcycles that could actually compete. In the 1972 Imola 200 race, two Ducatis took the first and second place, gaining fame instantly, leading to an explosion of orders. Ducati jumped from a local small factory to an international performance motorcycle brand.
Let’s put it this way: if there were trending searches decades ago, Dr. T would be Italy's Zhang Xue.
As one of the representatives of high-end motorcycle brands, Ducati being sold aligns well with the narrative of the times: the global economy is in a downturn, everyone is starting to focus on "cost-effectiveness," and luxury goods that can only provide emotional value or "social empowerment" are being prioritized for elimination. Motorcycles, which are neither as environmentally friendly as bicycles nor as practical as cars, are even less likely to survive.
From sales data, the number of units delivered by Ducati has indeed shown a slight decline. According to financial reports, Ducati delivered 58,224 units in 2023, dropping to 54,495 units in 2024, and further down to 50,895 units in 2025. However, careful analysis of the data reveals that Ducati is quite resilient.
For example, in traditional regional markets, Ducati's decline is quite evident. In 2024 and 2025, Ducati's deliveries in the Chinese market fell by 26% and 31%, respectively. Its two major traditional markets in Europe, Germany and Italy, also saw declines of 11% and 8%, respectively. However, Ducati has successfully found new growth, achieving double-digit growth in Japan, Spain, and Austria.
As for the gains in new markets, they ensured that Ducati's revenue did not drop as sharply as the narrative of the times suggested, instead appearing very stable. From 2022 to 2024, Ducati managed to break through €1 billion in revenue for three consecutive natural years, maintaining a revenue profit margin of about 10%, far exceeding its two major competitors Harley-Davidson (6.7%) and Yamaha (7.65%). It wasn't until 2025 when the U.S. initiated a global tariff war that Ducati dropped below the €1 billion mark, but it still maintained a level of €925 million and achieved revenue of €52 million.
Ducati also does not lack innovative vitality. In 2025, Ducati launched 12 new models. Among them are collectible motorcycles like the Panigale V4 Tricolore Italia and Panigale V4 Lamborghini, as well as consumer-grade motorcycles like the Desmo450 MX, aimed at exploring the new scenario of off-road riding. Additionally, on August 5, 2026, Ducati announced an additional €121 million (about $140 million) for research and innovation, with the Italian Ministry of Industry playing an important role, providing not only crucial technical support but also about 25% of the funding.
(Panigale V4 Lamborghini, Source: Ducati official website)
Therefore, inferring the reasons for Ducati's sale based on the theory of consumer downgrade is not logically adequate. This also explains why, after the news broke, Ducati CEO Claudio Domenicali arrogantly stated: "The company is currently in good condition and is fully capable of operating independently. We actually do not need Volkswagen to help us customize our future plans."
The main reason for the transaction is indeed more rational when viewed from Volkswagen's perspective.
In order to cope with shocks and recreate glory, over the past few years, Volkswagen Group has been undergoing substantial reforms, with one of the most important measures being "concentration on core business and cutting off marginal businesses." Under this guiding spirit, the Volkswagen Group has sold valuable assets including engine manufacturer Everllence and the prestigious luxury car brand Bugatti-Rimac. The sale of Everllence alone is expected to bring approximately €7.4 billion (about ¥57.75 billion) back to Volkswagen Group.
At the board meeting held in early September, the group officially approved a restructuring plan, making "streamlining" a regular strategy, and proposed clear KPIs that require the group to reduce its holdings by about one-third in the near future. Specifically, in numerical terms, the Volkswagen Group currently manages over 2000 subsidiaries or associated companies, and one-third means over 600 assets are to be handled.
In this context, after selling Everllence and Bugatti, Ducati is indeed one of the more "priceable" assets among the businesses marked as "marginal" by the Volkswagen Group. Analysts from Bloomberg estimate that Ducati's current valuation is approximately €1.25 billion (about ¥9.75 billion). It is worth mentioning that previously, when Zhang Xue motorcycle completed a new round of financing, the rumored valuation was about ¥6 billion.
Two years ago, could you imagine a racing motorcycle brand in China being valued so closely to Ducati? It is indeed something to marvel at.
Other assets that are also likely to be sold include their bus business Transpire Group, solid-state battery business QuantumScape, new materials giant SGL Carbon, Bundesliga powerhouse Bayern Munich, and Leverkusen. It is worth mentioning again that many Chinese companies' names also appear in the assets listed by the media as waiting to be liquidated by Volkswagen Group, such as Guoke Gaoxuan and Horizon. Of course, all of this is incidental, so I won’t elaborate.
Italians, guarding Italy's pride?
In Volkswagen Group's massive divestment plan, the reason Ducati has been prioritized for media coverage, in addition to its own notoriety, is also that there are potential buyers already for this transaction.
As early as June 25, 2026, a private equity firm named PatrItalia announced that it had submitted a bid of up to €2.5 billion (approximately ¥19.5 billion) to the Volkswagen Group, attempting to acquire 100% of Ducati's shares. This offer is clearly much higher than the €1.25 billion suggested by analysts from Bloomberg and aligns well with Volkswagen Group's principles of cost reduction.
Furthermore, from the name PatrItalia, it can be seen that this is a private equity fund from Italy. According to their official website, PatrItalia was established in 2025, with the mission of seeking those enterprises that originated from Italy but have been sold to foreigners or partly owned by foreigners, attempting to gain majority or controlling stakes in these companies. They claim that this positioning comes from their dissatisfaction with the status quo: watching our country's industrial capital and excellent achievements—this country that has taught the world how to dress, furnish homes, eat, design, drive, and build—being sold to foreigners, while these foreigners acquire the value and reputation of Italians but do not cherish its culture or understand the significance of what they have.
PatrItalia even emphasized in their statement that once the acquisition is completed, "Italian patriotism" will permeate every aspect of the business, and the company will "always and only" consist of Italians, regardless of any skills foreign employees might bring.
An internationally renowned brand from Italy being acquired by a fund dedicated to Italy's rich historical heritage—could this not be an ideal outcome?
However, for unknown reasons, after the transaction was exposed in June, there has been no further information. Audi and Volkswagen confirmed the existence of the acquisition offer, but only left an ambiguous statement: "Ducati is a strong and successful company. Assessing the company's asset portfolio is part of responsible management for the group. No decision has been made yet regarding the sale of Ducati."
Why is this? Is it because Volkswagen thinks that since the first bid was €2.5 billion, the second and third bids will undoubtedly skyrocket, thus deciding to wait for a better offer? Or does Volkswagen Group, after evaluation, find that Ducati is a financially sound asset with significantly improved future earnings and might not choose to sell it entirely? Or could it be that PatrItalia's expression of nationalism was too extreme, raising concerns for both Volkswagen and Ducati about its professional operational capabilities, leading to a rejection of the offer?
All of this remains unknown. From the limited information available, it can be seen that motorcycles are indeed in a growth zone. I found an industry report published in August 2026, which statistics the sales performance of all motorcycle categories (under 200cc, 200cc to 400cc, 400cc to 800cc, and over 800cc), pointing out that the global motorcycle market size was $75.46 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow from $78.58 billion in 2026 to $118.9 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.31% during the forecast period.
However, the sport, cruiser, and touring motorcycles that Ducati occupies only became the fastest-growing product types in the North American market, while consumers in North America, characterized by vast plains and rich oil and gas resources, still prefer cars. Their motorcycle sales contribute less than 13% of global totals. The Asia-Pacific region, which holds the largest market share and contributes 51.85% of sales, primarily demands moderately priced models suitable for short commutes, and, encouraged by the government, focuses mainly on electric models.
Can Ducati truly survive independently without Volkswagen or a comparable large group? Can it adapt to these changes on its own? What kind of assistance does Ducati need to adapt to these changes? These tangled questions might be a more direct reason for Volkswagen to keep the current buyer waiting.
Another interesting note is that Volkswagen's ambiguous stance has even united all of Italy. According to media reports, in early September, Italian businesses met with Adolfo Urso, Minister of "Made in Italy." Meanwhile, in the Emilia-Romagna region where Ducati is located, regional president Michele De Pascale proposed convening a roundtable on the company's prospects.
Regardless of whether the transaction ultimately takes place, it’s indeed remarkable that a group of Germans have pressured Italians to shout “unity” and “glory.” It’s hard not to exclaim, karma is real.
Image source official website
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