Beware of a pullback after Ethereum's false breakout, with 2,480 being the key lifeline, and short-term bulls and bears looking at 2,540.

Looking back at yesterday's market, the data itself did not bring any significant impact, but the so-called "no impact," from a short-term perspective, can actually be understood as a minor positive effect. However, from a macro level, this impact is more temporary, and the market is still in a phase of waiting and delay.

What truly deserves attention is still the price behavior of the market itself.

01 Ethereum's Bull and Bear Layout from Yesterday, Key Points Have Emerged

During the trading session yesterday, we highlighted the bullish trend defense level around 2,420. At that time, it was clearly emphasized that this level must not be effectively broken.

From the actual trend, the market's lowest point was around 243, still not truly damaging the previously formed bottom support structure.

The pressure above primarily focuses on the area around 2,480.

Throughout yesterday's session, we consistently emphasized that if it could stabilize around 2,480 again, then the market would be in a position to continue breaking through the upper ceiling.

Subsequently, the market indeed experienced a rapid surge and further tested around 2,566.

We have previously made it clear that 2,566 was the new high position at that time and also the stop-loss point for the bears. Once broken, it means the original bearish logic needs to stop-loss and exit.

After the breakout, the space above needs to continuously focus on the area around 2,580 to 2,600, as well as the super-top zone around 2,640 to 2,650.

From the current trend, prices have returned to around 2,508, indicating that this round of gains has already shown a significant pullback.

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02 After Rising and Pulling Back, the Market Shows "False Breakout" Characteristics

From the 4-hour level, Ethereum briefly retraced to around 2,582 last night, and then the price fell again.

Therefore, the current rise is more worthy of vigilance due to the "false breakout" structure.

But here, one point needs to be emphasized:

We do not take bullish or bearish positions based on sentiment, we only operate based on price behavior.

If the price strengthens, we go along with the strength; if the price weakens, we adjust strategies based on key levels.

So the key to determining whether Ethereum continues to oscillate or further retraces lies in a few core price levels.

03 Around 2,480, It Is the Most Important Lifeline Currently

The rise yesterday essentially started from the breakout around 2,480.

Therefore, from a price behavior perspective, the area around 2,480 is currently a very important lifeline for Ethereum.

Additionally, around 2,510 is also worth paying attention to.

If the level of 2,510 shows clear loss, then the strength of the market will further decline.

More importantly, 2,530 and the area around 2,540 are of concern.

Before 2,530 is stabilized again, the current rise still needs to be treated as a false breakout.

This means that in the short term, we need to guard against the market retracing back to the support below.

If the market can stabilize around 2,530 to 2,540, then the structure will strengthen again; conversely, if it continues to fail to recover, the likelihood of testing the bottom support will increase.

04 Once 2,480 Is Lost, Focus on These Levels Below

If the key support around 2,480 is truly broken, then the operating logic needs to gradually shift from "buying low" to "focusing on rebounds."

The first target for the downside can focus on around 2,440.

If it continues to weaken, then the second target should pay attention to around 2,400.

Going further down, we must monitor the area near 2,380.

If the market further experiences a deep pullback, we can continue to pay attention to areas around 2,330 and 2,300.

These levels are essentially calculated based on previous box structures and the market's movement range as reasonable support zones.

If Bitcoin shows a synchronized decline, and Ethereum unexpectedly experiences a deep dip, then one can further concentrate on the area around 2,280 to 2,260, as well as the range from 2,230 to 2,200.

Therefore, there is no need to list all intermediate positions; what truly needs to be monitored are these key supports.

05 Pressure Above: 2,535—2,540 Is the First Observation Level

Since there is a possibility of false breakouts in the current market, the upward pressure also needs to be re-evaluated.

First, we should pay attention to the area around 2,535—2,540.

The larger pressure zone can be seen in the area from 2,530 to 2,550.

If the price tests upwards again, we need to closely observe the levels 2,566 and 2,582.

Among them, 2,566 is the previous historical high, while 2,582 is the high formed last night.

If these two levels are not effectively broken again, then the current observation can still follow the short-term bearish structure.

However, if 2,566 and 2,582 are both sequentially broken, then the original bearish trend will be disrupted.

At that time, we can no longer simply treat it from a bearish perspective, as the market turns strong again, and we must operate more according to short-term price behavior.

06 If Ethereum Re-enters Oscillation, Also Look at the Area Around 2,600

Besides the trend pressure, we also need to consider another situation:

Ethereum may not immediately exhibit a unilateral trend, but could re-enter a high-level oscillation.

If this occurs, the area around 2,600 will become very important as a range pressure.

Especially in the area from 2,600 to 2,660, if the market experiences a rapid rise accompanied by long upper shadows or spike behavior, then we can still pay attention to the price behavior in the short term.

If the market can genuinely break through the high point around 2,660, it means that Ethereum's overall trend remains strong.

In this case, it can no longer simply be defined as shorting at the top, but should be primarily focused on short-term trends.

Further upward pressure should continue to look at 2,730, 2,750, 2,780, and even around 2,820.

07 Bitcoin Is Still in a Range Oscillation

Let's look at Bitcoin.

The overall trend of Bitcoin has still not deviated from the previous oscillation range.

Bottom lifeline focuses on around 77,500, while support below looks at around 76,500.

Yesterday, the market briefly touched around 76,000 and then rebounded back to around 80,000, indicating that the support area below still has considerable backing.

As for the pressure above, the focus should be on around 80,800 and 79,500.

From the current structure, Bitcoin is still navigating back and forth within this range.

If a new bullish trend is to truly start, then standing firm around 79,500 and 80,500 is crucial.

Especially at 79,500, if it cannot be reclaimed, the market will most likely continue oscillating within the range.

08 Bitcoin's Short-term True Reversal Needs to Wait for Confirmation

If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through 78,500 and around 78,000, the short term may still continue to oscillate within the area from 78,000 to 77,000 for some time.

If this oscillation continues, the timeline may stretch to tomorrow.

Therefore, the primary concern now is the market suddenly choosing a direction after long periods of oscillation.

If a deeper pullback occurs below, we can still pay attention to the area from 75,500 to 74,400 for a potential entry.

If unexpected deep spikes occur, then focus on around 73,800.

And if the market continues to give no opportunities below, avoid forcefully chasing positions.

What is truly worth waiting for is the price stabilizing at key positions again.

At least from the current view, Bitcoin must stabilize around 78,500 to have the conditions for a further reversal trend.

77,500 has been repeatedly tested, thus it can more so serve as a reference for an intermediate turnaround rather than be simply understood as absolute support.

09 Currently, What Matters Most Is Waiting for Time and Price to Provide Answers

Overall, Ethereum’s most significant characteristic right now is the indication of a false breakout after a high surge.

Short-term focus needs to be on:

Whether 2,530—2,540 can stabilize again.

If it stabilizes again, the market has the opportunity to test 2,566, 2,582, and higher positions once more.

If it consistently fails to stabilize, then we need to guard against the market retracing back to the 2,480 lifeline.

Once 2,480 is effectively broken, focus should be on support areas like 2,440, 2,400, and 2,380.

As for Bitcoin, it still has not truly left the oscillation range. Only by re-establishing key pressure can the market start to create a more definitive reversal structure.

Therefore, what is most important at this stage is not guessing whether the market will rise or fall, but waiting for key prices to show confirmation.

We follow the side that price behavior stands on.

Before critical levels are broken or lost, there is no need to prematurely conclude about the market.

Next, just wait for time and price to give the final answer.

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