After the rebound in August, the market has entered a phase where "structure remains, momentum weakens." Bitcoin's dominance is still high, and funds are more willing to watch Bitcoin first before deciding on altcoin rebounds. The continuous net outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates that short-term institutions are reducing their positions, not that the trend has reversed, but it will make rebounds weaker and lead to more false breakouts. In terms of operation, it is better to recognize the trading range and key levels first, and not to leverage in the middle position.
First, let's see where each coin stands.
1. BTC: Box range 76,000–82,000, with the 365-day moving average as the ceiling.
The current price is around 77,200. The daily chart remains above the 20/50/200-day moving averages, and the mid-term structure is not broken; the MACD histogram has turned negative, indicating that the momentum from the August peak is fading. The upper level is not an empty space, but rather overlapping with moving averages, valuation bands, and chip distributions.
Support (near to far)
• 76,500–76,800: Lower edge of the box, recent repeated defense zone
• 75,000: Round number + dense stop loss
• 72,500–73,000: Near the 200-day moving average, a watershed for mid-term bulls
Resistance (near to far)
• 78,000–78,500
• 80,000
• 81,500–82,000 (around the 365-day moving average)
• 83,000–86,000 (where on-chain valuation and liquidation are relatively concentrated)
Scenario
• Baseline: Continue to oscillate between 75,500–80,500, selling high and buying low, without chasing the middle price.
• Slightly bullish: If the daily chart steadies above 78,700, target 80,000 → 81,700. Failure is defined as closing back below 76,800.
• Slightly bearish: If the daily chart effectively breaks below 75,000, next look at 72,500. Do not try to catch the bottom at mid-levels.
Try to buy above 76,500–76,800 with stabilization, stop loss below 75,800, first target 78,000–78,500.
Near the current price, it is more suitable for light positions or waiting, adding after the selection is complete.
2. ETH: The ascending channel remains, 2,500–2,530 is the near-term cap.
Ethereum is more "elastic" than Bitcoin, but is also more sensitive to Bitcoin's direction. The current price is roughly 2,500–2,510. After rising from around 1,900 in mid-August, the price is within an ascending channel, with the lower edge of the channel and the 20-day moving average roughly converging around 2,410. The net outflow from exchanges has once intensified, appearing more like chips being migrated away, not just a simple sell-off; however, the capital in spot ETFs is not stable, and rebounds still need to see if it can recover and stabilize above 2,530.
Support
• 2,410–2,430: Lower edge of the channel + 20-day moving average
• 2,300–2,230: Around the 50-day moving average
• 2,180–2,170: Near the 200-day moving average
Resistance
• 2,530–2,555
• 2,600–2,650 (area where it briefly surged last Friday and then retraced)
• 2,780–2,800
Scenario
• Baseline: Stay between 2,410–2,550. If it retraces and stabilizes at 2,410–2,450, try to go long, sell on rebound to 2,530–2,600.
• Slightly bullish: If the daily chart closes above 2,530 and holds, the next target is 2,600 → 2,780. The premise is that BTC cannot break 75,000.
• Slightly bearish: Break below 2,410 and confirm closing, weakening the channel logic, first look at 2,300.
ETH position is suggested to be smaller than BTC: with the same account risk, volatility is larger, leaving enough space for single-stop losses.
3. SOL: Psychological level around 100 repeatedly contested, with the highest elasticity, but also the strictest stop loss.
Solana's current price is about 100–102. Most daily moving averages are still below (20-day around 99, 50-day around 90–91, 200-day around 90), with a mid-term bullish structure; however, in the short term, it is in a tug-of-war between 100–107, with the 4-hour Supertrend briefly weakening, and MACD momentum also cooling down. The 100 level is both a psychological level and a relatively concentrated liquidation point, often leading to many false breakouts.
Support
• 98.3–100: Psychological level + defensive zone from the past two weeks
• 94–95
• 89–91: Convergence zone of the 50/200-day moving averages
Resistance
• 104.5–107 (frequently obstructed recently)
• 110–112
• 118–120
Scenario
• Baseline: Hold 98.5–100, first digest 104–107. Break above 107 and stabilize, then look at 110–120.
• Slightly bullish: If the daily chart closes above 107, target 110 → 120. Increase positions only on confirmed retracement.
• Slightly bearish: If the daily chart breaks below 98 and weakens, next stop is 94; if it breaks again, then 89–91 is the trend-level support.
SOL is not suitable for heavy overnight bets. With the same 1% account risk, the stop-loss distance is often wider than BTC, so actual positions need to be further reduced.
4. How to arrange the three coins together, rather than each doing their own thing.
1. First look at BTC, then ETH, and finally SOL. If BTC holds above 76,500, there will be odds for the dip-buying in ETH/SOL; if BTC daily breaks below 75,000, altcoins usually drop first and are more elastic, reduce positions first instead of adding positions to catch bottoms.
2. Total risk cap. The total exposure for the three coins should not exceed the upper limit of the account's bearable loss, for example, within a total risk of 2%, rather than each coin taking on 2%.
3. Weekend liquidity is poor. There are many false breakouts and spikes, and limit orders are better than market orders, reducing leverage to a lower level.
4. Write invalid conditions before placing orders. If BTC is below 75,800 / ETH below 2,410 / SOL below 98, execute when touched, don’t add positions based on emotions.
In a nutshell, the strategy is as follows: BTC wait at the lower edge of the box and reduce at the upper edge; ETH look at the breakout confirmation of the lower edge of the channel and 2,530; SOL treat 100 and 107 as switches, do not leverage around 102. The structure remains, but the impulse is insufficient; during this phase, success is determined by positioning and levels, not predicting the next big rise.
The above is an overview and trading framework, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are extremely volatile, and you may lose all your principal; please make independent judgments and implement strict risk control.

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