Yesterday, the market experienced multiple rounds of rapid rises and falls under the influence of data, with both bulls and bears repeatedly facing liquidations, entering a very typical **“harvesting market”**.
The most challenging aspect of this market is that: **holding positions easily encounters accelerated trends, while chasing orders can easily hit instant reversals.** Prices continuously spike, fake breakouts, and quickly retract, repeatedly exhausting traders' positions and mindset.
Among them, ETH's volatility is particularly exaggerated, with a daily fluctuation exceeding 11%, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate once surged by about 5%, with capital rotation very evident in a short time.
Next, the market will gradually shift its attention to next week's FOMC meeting. As policy expectations continually change, any hawkish signals may again suppress risk assets. Therefore, before the meeting materializes, high volatility and high divergence may still be the mainstream of the market.
Today, we enter a low liquidity phase typical of weekends, making it easier to have abnormal spikes after the depth of transactions declines. In the current situation, directional judgment is no longer the priority; controlling positions and strict stop-losses are the core.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Daily fluctuations, high short and low long, do not chase orders.
BTC quickly retreated after being impacted by CPI data, and medium to short-term trends have again shown divergence.
The current RSI is about 55.5, still in the neutral to strong zone, indicating that the bulls have not completely lost their initiative; the 50-period EMA on the 4-hour level remains above the 200-period EMA, and the mid-term recovery structure formed since late August has yet to be thoroughly damaged.
However, the short-term has clearly cooled down.
The 4-hour RSI has fallen to around 43.3, entering a weaker region, indicating that the previous upward momentum is waning. Therefore, it is currently unsuitable to blindly look bearish, nor is it suitable to chase long positions during the rebound.
The weekend is more suitable to continue with the box strategy:
Near 76000—76500, observe low-level support; if the rebound enters 78000—78500, watch for pressure and profit-taking situations.
Only after a real breakthrough of the range should trends be reconsidered.
Support: 76000-76500
Resistance: 78000-78500, 79300
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: Range fluctuations, high short and low long, focus on preventing short-term overbought corrections.
ETH became the absolute focus of the market yesterday, with not only drastic price fluctuations but also a noticeable strengthening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
From a medium-term perspective, the structure still appears relatively strong. The price is currently holding above the key Fibonacci area, with previous significant resistance gradually converting into support; the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have begun to expand, the moving average structure has improved, and the MACD golden cross also indicates that the bulls still maintain a certain advantage.
However, there has been a clear overheating in the short-term.
The price quickly spiked to around 2667 before rapidly retracting, with the 1-hour KDJ and RSI both pointing downwards, indicating that high-level profit takers are starting to cash out, and there is a demand for further corrections in the short term.
Therefore, the biggest mistake currently is further blindly chasing after seeing ETH's strength.
If the area of 2500—2460 can form effective support, the medium-term strong structure can still be maintained; if the price rebounds to the 2550—2610 area and then shows stagnation again, then one needs to be wary of a new round of high-level shakeouts.
Support: 2500, 2460
Resistance: 2550, 2580-2610
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