Soaring and then Retreating, ETH Stands at a Fork in the Road Again
Yesterday, ETH did not have a smooth journey.
First it soared, then it retreated, losing and regaining 2600. Such a trend in any trading week is worth caution—because it indicates back-and-forth competition at the same position between bulls and bears, with neither side able to call the shots. And right at this juncture, the U.S. CPI data came out.
1. Fundamentals: The Data Exploded, But the Market Didn’t Follow
First, let's look at the data.
The U.S. August unadjusted CPI month-on-month rate was recorded at 0.4%, a new high since June this year, compared to the previous value of only 0.1%, nearly quadrupling; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate was recorded at 0.3%, also a new high since May, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, and also higher than the previous value.
What does this set of data mean? Inflation not only did not decline but is accelerating. The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week quickly heated up, with probabilities soaring to as high as ninety percent.
By common logic, such data is clearly bearish for risk assets. However, the market reaction is quite intriguing:
First falling, then rising, and after rising, falling again—a standard washout pattern.
What does this indicate? It indicates that there are huge divergences within the market regarding direction; part of the capital is betting that the bearish impact of interest rate hikes has already been fully priced in, while another part is choosing to cash out at high levels. And the true pricing power will not be revealed until next Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Before that, the market will likely enter a period of stagnation—without incremental capital, without a clear narrative, only repeated turmoil.
2. Technical Analysis: Key Levels Breakdown on the 4-Hour Chart
Let's return to the market itself and look at the ETH 4-hour chart.
Last night it fell below 2600—which is the first watershed for short-term strength and weakness. Stabilizing above 2600 would open up space above; failing to hold 2600 means the bulls will always be short of breath.
More critically, the current price has fallen below the previous support level of 2534. Falling below the previous low signifies to traders: the short-term structure is weakening, and selling pressure is starting to take control.
So where is the current coordinate? To summarize in one sentence:2534 is the threshold for trying to go long, 2507 is the current defense line, and 2489 is the final bottom line.
3. Operation Strategy: Responding to Scenarios
At the current price level, my suggestion is to first wait and see—because standing between 2534 and 2507, there is not enough high probability for either upward or downward movements.
Scenario One: The hourly chart stabilizes above 2534
You can lightly test going long
Stop loss: below 2500
Target: looking up at 2600
Scenario Two: Price effectively breaks below 2489
Bullish structure is thoroughly damaged
Can consider going short
Target: 2428, further looking at 2396
Core Principle: Don't guess the direction, wait for signals. Go long if it stabilizes, go short if it breaks, and stay hands-off in the middle zone.
For more details and specific operations, see you in the live broadcast tonight, where we will analyze the market and watch the K-line logic in real-time.
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TS: Three APPs can be downloaded from the app store, scan to add)
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