2026-09-12 ｜ In-depth Interpretation ｜ Written by: Misty Rain

In the past 24 hours, ETH accomplished in a day what others take a month to do. After the CPI release at 20:30 last night, ETH surged from 2404 all the way up to 2667.35, with a maximum increase of over 9% at one point; during this time, the total liquidation on the network reached 101 million USD, with 91.48 million in shorts liquidated, and ETH alone contributed 60.9 million—shorts were uprooted. Then the market sharply reversed: on the morning of September 12, ETH returned to around 2517, giving back a significant portion of the gains. This night taught both bulls and bears a lesson: bulls learned what "spike" means, while bears learned what "liquidation" means. This article thoroughly explains the ins and outs of ETH's big bullish candle, BTC's relative weakness, altcoin frenzy, and key levels ahead.

01 CPI Release: Why Did ETH Rise the Most?

Let’s first review the starting point of this market event. Last night at 20:30, the US August CPI was released: the annual rate of 3.4% met expectations and was unchanged from the previous value; core CPI's annual rate dropped to 2.4%, hitting a new low since April 2021. The feared "explosive data" did not materialize, the bad news was out—Nasdaq futures flipped from down 0.6% to up 0.78%, and BTC was pulled back from nearly 76,500 to 77,800.

But the real star was ETH. Why did it rise the fastest? Because it was the "hard-hit area" in this round of decline: from a high of 2566 in September down to 2404, a drop of over 6%, bearing more short pressure and a more crowded position than BTC (which fell from 82,000 to 76,000, about 7% but with a sturdier base). At the moment when the bad news was absorbed, suppressed shorts started to cover while sidelined bulls jumped in, resulting in maximum elasticity.

Another detail: just a few hours before the CPI was released, we tracked ETH whale 0x4487...c92d increasing short positions near 2461 (notional value 24.16 million USD). Once the CPI dropped, the price immediately broke through this cost line—these high-leverage short positions were the main force behind this round of liquidations.

02 Liquidation Data: 101 Million USD in Shorts Liquidated by a Single Bull Candle

The market's violence can be summarized by the data. According to contract monitoring, nearly 101 million USD was liquidated network-wide in the last hour, with 91.48 million USD in shorts liquidated, accounting for over 90%; 60.9 million USD alone was liquidated in ETH, making up 60.2% of the total liquidations.

This was a textbook example of "squeezing shorts": rapid price rise → expanding unrealized losses for bears hitting margin calls → buying pressure from margin calls pushing prices higher → more shorts getting liquidated. In this spiral, the high of 2667 for ETH was the peak formed from shorts being forcefully liquidated.

But it should be noted: when liquidation data peaks, it often means that short-term sentiment has vented to its extremes. When the bears have been cleared out, there’s less "fuel" to push prices higher—this was the precursor to the later pullback.

03 Pullback: What Happened from 2667 to 2517

Looking at the candlestick chart, ETH's movement is very clear: on the 15-minute timeframe, the price rose from 2404 to 2667.35, then quickly retreated, with the current price around 2517—retracing about 150 points from the peak, a drop of nearly 5.6%. On the 1-hour timeframe, the MACD histogram is beginning to converge, signaling a clear decrease in momentum; on the 4-hour timeframe, the price has exactly pulled back to the upper Bollinger Band around 2517, beginning to test support at this level.

How to understand this pullback? Two reasons: First, 2667 was a "spike top"—during the rapid rise, the previous trapped positions in the 2566-2536 range were released, coupled with short-term profit-taking, the selling pressure concentrated. Second, after the shorts were almost entirely cleared out, buy pressure lost its "squeeze" accelerator, causing the price to retract to seek new balance.

Therefore, ETH's current position is quite delicate: 2517-2538 (4-hour upper band + 15-minute middle band) is the first observation zone. If it holds this level, it indicates that some of the gains from this surge have been retained, and the price will digest within the 2500-2560 range before choosing a direction again; if it breaks below 2489 or 2461, be cautious of a retest of the 2404-2441 upward area—that would mean this surge was merely a "spike", and the trend has not changed.

04 Relative Weakness of BTC: Market Cap Below 58.08%

On the other side of ETH’s rise is BTC’s relative weakness. Data shows that BTC's current market cap percentage has fallen to 58.08%, down 1.12% over 24 hours; in the past 24 hours, the trading volume reached 44 billion USD, with a circulating market cap of 1.55 trillion USD. After the CPI release, BTC only returned to near 77,800, a rise far less than ETH.

What does this indicate? Funds are performing a "high-low switch": moving from the already increased BTC to the oversold ETH and altcoins with greater elasticity. The CME holdings weekly report also confirms this direction: BTC holdings at 21,083 contracts, increased by 7.03%; ETH holdings at 26,564 contracts, increased by 7.90%—the incremental institutions are also leading in ETH.

Friends familiar with the crypto market's rhythm know this script: BTC rises first → ETH follows up → altcoin frenzy → the market enters the final stages. At this position, it feels like the "ETH-led" follow-up phase—weights are on stage, and elasticity is performing. But conversely, if ETH and the altcoin frenzy cannot drive BTC to break above 80,000, then the ceiling for this round of market may be approaching.

05 Altcoin Frenzy: RAY Up 23%, BREW Up 83%, Risk Appetite Has Returned

When risk appetite returns, funds always target the most elastic varieties first. Last night's anomalous list was quite lively: RAY rose 23.48% in 24 hours, currently priced at 1.63 USD, with a trading volume of 400 million USD; the BSC chain platform token BREW's market cap exceeded 28 million USD, with a daily increase of over 83%, approaching its previous high of 32 million USD—this platform token, which only launched on September 7 and fell below 4 million USD, has increased sevenfold in just two days.

The macro environment is also supportive: spot gold rebounded to 4360 USD per ounce; White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the proposal to issue 5,000 USD checks through the budget reconciliation process "is feasible"—the imagination of fiscal stimulus has returned; Nasdaq invested 100 million USD in Kraken's parent company Payward at a valuation of 21 billion USD, traditional capital continues to increase; CME holdings saw significant increases, with institutions choosing to increase positions rather than retreat after data was released.

But please remember: the altcoin market rises quickly and can fall just as fast. BREW, such a 83% single-day mover, is an emotional indicator rather than a value indicator—each day it rises is accumulating the risk of a pullback.

06 Key Levels and Observation Points Ahead

At this stage of the market, the direction has not been determined, but the levels are clear:

• Above ETH: 2563 (15-minute upper band), 2580, 2620, 2667 (spike top) — 2667 needs to see volume for a valid second breakout;

• Below ETH: 2517 (4-hour upper band/current price), 2489, 2461, 2441, 2404 (upward area) — if 2517 holds, it will stabilize; if it breaks below 2489, be cautious of a retest;

• Above BTC: 78,500, 80,000 level — after the CPI, BTC hasn't even touched 78,500, weaker than ETH is the current main line;

• Observation Items: FOMC and the dot plot on September 15-16 (final review); Michael Saylor's STRC price is only 1.50 USD away from parity, and if it reaches 100 USD, Strategy will buy BTC again; whether CME holdings continue to increase; the sustainability of altcoin trading (RAY/BREW)—it's a thermometer for sentiment.

Finally, let’s be honest. This night, ETH exemplified the situation of "bad news fully released" with one big bullish candle: 101 million in shorts liquidated is the price of fear; the 150-point retrace after the spike at 2667 is the price of greed. Now the price has returned to 2517, both bulls and bears are back at the same starting line—there are spike tops and trapped positions above, while below there are the upward area and support at 2400, the real direction will have to wait for the FOMC to determine. Until then, holding positions and managing emotions is a hundred times more important than guessing the direction. SafeX: Annxvvc

The above content is based on the logical deduction of public market information and is only intended for sharing within a technical analysis framework, not constituting any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; all levels and scenarios are hypothetical deductions, please make rational judgments and be aware of risks. SafeX: Annxvvc

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