Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.66 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.1%, which is $1.57 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $30.52 billion, having increased by 0.38% over the last 7 days, with USDT making up 60.07%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: BTC with a 7-day increase of 0.37%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 2.95%, SOL with a 7-day increase of 0.63%, HYPE with a 7-day increase of 1.58%, and RAY with a 7-day increase of 65.5%.
Market Forecast (September 14 - September 20):
The RSI index is at 41.5 (neutral), the Fear and Greed Index is at 70 (greed), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 38 (neutral).
Crypto market prediction: The crypto market has weakened significantly ahead of the announcement of macro data, with BTC falling back to around $78,000, indicating a clear tightening of funds, and altcoins dropping even more.
BTC: $73,500 - $83,000 (If it cannot hold $78,000, a pullback is likely)
ETH: $2,200 - $2,600 (with $2,300 as critical support)
SOL: $85 - $110 (critical support at $95)
HYPE: $75 - $95 (critical support at $86)
Risk Warning:
The FOMC meeting (September 15-16) is the biggest macro variable
The Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, with results announced at 5 AM Beijing time on the 17th. The current market is pricing in around a 50%-60% chance of a rate hike. If a rate hike occurs or the dot plot signals a hawkish tone, it could trigger a new round of deleveraging pressure. Analysts note that if rate hike expectations soar, Bitcoin could fall back into a lower range. It is advised to manage positions carefully before the meeting results are announced.
ETF inflow weakens, buying support diminishes
Recent data shows that approximately $100.7 million flowed out of the U.S. spot BTC ETF on September 9, even though a net inflow of about $987 million was observed the week prior. Institutional funds have clearly turned cautious ahead of macro data, and if ETF outflows continue next week, it will weaken BTC's support near $78,000.
HYPE faces massive unlocking pressure at the end of September
HYPE unlocked approximately 9.92 million tokens (worth around $820 million) on September 6, increasing the supply by about 1%. Traders are currently focused on a larger-scale unlocking at the end of September, estimated between $860 million and $1.2 billion. Whether the new supply can be absorbed by demand will determine if HYPE can hold historical highs. Technical indicators show a 14-day RSI approaching 80.9, indicating an overbought territory with consolidation risks.
Understanding the Present
Bitcoin has been falling for several days, briefly dipping below the $77,000 mark
Due to U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations and rising oil prices driven by the Middle East situation, Bitcoin fell below $77,000 on the morning of September 11, marking its fourth consecutive trading day of decline, with a weekly drop of nearly 4.8%. The market is worried that the Federal Reserve may raise rates next week due to inflation pressures, causing risk assets to come under general pressure.Market structure is diverging sharply, with meme coins leading the decline
While Bitcoin has stabilized relatively, there has been severe structural selling within the market. The CoinDesk Meme Coin Index plummeted 10% in a single day, small-cap stock indices fell by 5.1%, while the top asset index only dropped by 2.3%, indicating that funds are rapidly withdrawing from high-speculative assets.Over $440 million liquidated across the network in the last 24 hours, with substantial losses for long positions
According to Coinglass data, $446 million was liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with $352 million in long positions getting liquidated, including $111 million and $74.01 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum long positions, respectively. The largest single liquidation occurred in Bitget's ETHUSDT contract, worth $22.63 million.Spot Bitcoin ETF inflow experiences drastic fluctuations
Capital flows reversed during the week. For the week ending September 4, the spot BTC ETF saw a strong net inflow of about $987 million. However, buying rapidly cooled, turning into a net outflow of $46.6 million on September 8, which expanded to $100.7 million on September 9, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of macro data announcements.Liquid Network suffers "white hat" attack, with $320 million worth of Bitcoin temporarily stolen
The Liquid sidechain was exploited due to a vulnerability in Elements software, leading the attacker to mint unbacked LBTC and withdraw about 4,000 BTC (worth around $320 million), depleting its reserves by 95%. The attacker, claiming to be a "white hat," returned 3,400 BTC after Blockstream patched the vulnerability, but about 598.5 BTC (worth about $4.788 million) remains unrecovered.South Korean exchange Bithumb lists Hemi (HEMI) as a trading warning project
Bithumb announced it has listed Hemi as a trading warning project due to security vulnerabilities in the smart contract for its initial reward distribution, leading to abnormal leakage of some tokens.UK House of Lords votes in favor of establishing a national digital asset strategy
The UK House of Lords passed an amendment with 194 votes in favor and 138 against, requiring the Treasury to formulate, publish, and consult on a digital asset strategy within 12 months after the Financial Services and Markets Bill becomes law, marking further clarification of the regulatory framework.Gemini subsidiary receives large payment institution license from Singapore Monetary Authority
Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini announced that its Singapore subsidiary has received a Large Payment Institution (MPI) license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), allowing it to offer digital payment token and cross-border remittance services.Nine Swiss institutions launch CHF stablecoin pilot test
The Swiss franc stablecoin project has entered the testing phase, with participation from nine institutions including UBS, PostFinance, and Sygnum. The tests cover scenarios such as automated trading, tokenized asset settlement, and programmable payments, aiming to explore the application of digital currencies pegged 1:1 to the Swiss franc in financial infrastructure.Forbes updates cryptocurrency ranking, TRX included in the top ten
Forbes' Forbes Advisor released the latest cryptocurrency ranking for September, with TRON's native token TRX included alongside BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, and Solana. The list comprehensively assesses project utility, store of value, and market performance, with included projects having market caps exceeding $5 billion.
Macroeconomics
On September 10 at 20:15, the Eurozone announced that the European Central Bank deposit facility rate is 2.5% as of September 10, which is in line with expectations of 2.5% and up from a previous value of 2.25%.
On September 10, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week of September 5 was 206,000, with expectations of 205,000, and the previous value revised from 206,000 to 207,000.
On September 11, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 60.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 39.6%.
Foreseeing the Future
Industry Conferences
The Shanghai Blockchain International Week will be held in September 2026, with the "12th Global Blockchain Summit" hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Lab scheduled to kick off on September 23 at the Grand Ballroom on the first floor of the Hyatt on the Bund.
ETHRome 2026 will take place in Rome, Italy from September 11 to 13, 2026.
ETH Taipei 2026 will be held in Taipei from September 13 to 15.
KBW2026 will occur in Seoul, South Korea from September 29 to October 1.
Important Events
The U.S. Senate will reconvene on September 14, with the process of the CLARITY Act postponed until after the reconvening.
The CLARITY Act will have a procedural vote in the U.S. Senate on September 15 at 2 PM local time (September 16 at 2 AM Beijing time).
On September 16 at 10:30 PM, the U.S. will announce EIA crude oil inventories (in ten thousand barrels) for the week ending September 11.
On September 17 at 2 AM, the U.S. will announce the Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) for the week of September 16.
On September 17 at 8:30 PM, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims (in ten thousand) for the week ending September 12.
Project Progress
UK Bitcoin reserve listed company Satsuma plans to delist on September 14, and will sell all Bitcoin holdings and return capital to investors.
The DeFi yield protocol Pyra has ceased operations, with withdrawals ending before September 15.
The South Korean exchange will open after-hours trading for ETFs on September 14 (4:00 PM - 8:00 PM).
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will hold a roundtable on September 17, 2026, to discuss the transition of the U.S. stock market to 24-hour trading.
Token Unlocking
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on September 15, worth approximately $3.83 million, accounting for 3.48% of circulating supply.
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.55 million tokens on September 15, worth approximately $2.6 million, accounting for 0.86% of circulating supply.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on September 16, worth approximately $13.85 million, accounting for 1.59% of circulating supply.
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 172 million tokens on September 17, worth approximately $1.67 million, accounting for 2.52% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We provide insights into market dynamics through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; utilizing our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate through cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments within a strict risk management framework and with complete understanding of these risks to ensure the safety of their capital.
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