Hormuz may be shifting from a blockade to controlled passage

The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that Iraq and Gulf countries will hold a meeting on September 14 in Oman to discuss shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

Previously, Iran and Oman had reached an understanding on establishing a temporary security corridor, and this meeting essentially expands the initial plan between Iran and Oman to a discussion for the entire Gulf region.

Although this does not mean Iran is prepared to completely open Hormuz, I tend to believe that Iran is turning Hormuz from a purely military blockade into a negotiating chip that can be used over the long term.

A complete blockade of Hormuz carries significant costs for Iran itself. However, by shifting to controlled passage, Iran could allow some ships and energy transport from Iraq, Qatar, the UAE, and other countries to resume, while still maintaining control over Hormuz to prevent hostile entities from navigating.

If a temporary security corridor can be established, it would help alleviate rising oil prices, but the issue lies in whether Iran is willing to open Hormuz, even partially, especially considering it may have to endure until after the U.S. midterm elections. Once opened, even partially, it could directly relieve inflationary pressures in the U.S.

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