Bitcoin's daily chart has turned bearish, with 76,400 becoming a key short-term defense line, and 75,500 determining the downward space.

In yesterday's analysis, we highlighted a change: the daily level of Bitcoin has shown a consecutive three-day decline.

A consecutive decrease indicates that the price center is beginning to shift downward, but the previous trend has not truly broken key support, so the movements over the past few days have been more of high-level repeated washing, and the difficulty of short-term trading has significantly increased.

From the hourly perspective, this round of market started to rise near 76,000 and after several days of fluctuations, the price returned once again to the original low-level area. At 8 PM on September 10, the market quickly dropped to around 76,600 and then rebounded, briefly returning to around 77,500, but the rebound was not sustained, and the price fell again.

The lowest point reached in the morning session today was around 76,400.

Currently, the hourly chart still shows a weak structure; in the short term, we need to pay attention to whether it can reclaim around 76,800. If it can regain this position, it indicates that the short-term downward pressure has eased; if it continues to be unable to reclaim, we still need to guard against another test of 76,400 or even lower positions.

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4-hour Level: The rebound must reclaim 77,300—77,400

The changes at the 4-hour cycle are more noteworthy.

The drop at 8 PM last night directly broke through the previous key level, and although there was a rebound in the early morning, it was again pushed back down, indicating that the bears currently still dominate.

Therefore, the most important thing in the next 4-hour level is not simply whether there is a rebound, but whether the rebound can actually reclaim the 77,300—77,400 area.

If the 4-hour can stand back above 77,300, then this round of decline will have the opportunity to enter a repair phase, and the price will be based on further rebounds.

Conversely, if 76,400 is effectively broken down, then the first focus will be 76,000, and further down will be 75,500.

75,500 is a very important defensive level for this round of adjustment. Once this level is effectively broken, the downward space will further open up.

Daily Level: Has transitioned from oscillation to bearish oscillation

The daily level has now shown a more obvious change.

The condition we previously provided was that if the daily close falls below around 77,800, the market structure would begin to turn bearish. Currently, not only has the price broken below 77,800, but the daily has also closed lower for four consecutive days.

More importantly, the daily close this morning was around 76,500, the lowest entity close since the upward process began on August 21.

This indicates that this decline is different from the previous simple lower shadow tests.

We need to focus on observing the lows formed around September 1 and September 2, as well as the low of 75,500 on August 23.

Next, the market roughly has three scenarios:

First: The daily continues to decline and breaks below 76,400.

If the daily closes below 76,400 tomorrow at 8 AM, the previously appeared "downward probe - recovery" structure from September 1 and September 2 will become invalid, further confirming the short-term bearish structure.

In this case, the first focus below will be 75,500; if 75,500 continues to be lost, then we need to further observe the support around 73,400.

Second: The price continues to oscillate in the 76,400—77,700 range.

If the daily is slightly bearish but has not broken below several important lows, then the overall still belongs to bearish oscillation, not a trending decline.

Third: The daily reclaims above 77,700.

If tomorrow the daily can reclaim above 77,700, then the current downward breakout structure will significantly weaken, and the market will return to the original oscillation range.

Therefore, what is truly important now is not to predict whether the market will definitely rise or fall, but to wait for the daily close to give confirmation.

Weekly Level: The larger trend cannot yet be defined as fully bearish

From a larger cycle perspective, it cannot simply be defined as fully bearish at this time.

From the perspective of a bullish Fibonacci structure, during the rise from around 15,000 to 126,000, the 0.618 position has always been a very important pressure area, currently corresponding to around 84,000.

The previous market tested upwards twice, both of which did not actually break through this position.

Therefore, before the strong pressure around 84,000 is effectively broken, it is logically insufficient to discuss 100,000, 120,000, or even "the bullish market restarting".

However, conversely, we also cannot directly determine that the larger trend has completely turned bearish just because of a short-term weakness.

There is still support around 0.5 on the weekly chart, which is roughly in the area of 70,800.

Therefore, a more reasonable judgment at present remains:

Short-term bearish, intermediate-term in a high-level digestion, large cycle not completely destroyed.

The 70,000 round number is still an important defense position for the larger trend.

This round of market is more like a wide oscillation rather than a simple switch between bull and bear

In the past six months, the trend of Bitcoin has increasingly conformed to a characteristic—wide oscillation.

Rising, falling, rising again, falling again, the price has been repeatedly switching within a large range.

So the most important thing to avoid now is simply labeling the market as "bull market" or "bear market" because of short-term declines or rebounds.

From the current structure, a more accurate positioning is still high-level wide oscillation.

If in the future, the 84,000 area is broken through again and stabilized, then the upward space of the larger cycle can be further opened.

If 70,000 is effectively broken down, then a real and obvious weakening of the large structure will occur.

Between these two positions, there is still the possibility of repeated oscillations in the market.

Indicator Resonance: Short-term bears are dominant, but rebound signals have begun to appear

From BBA, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands, the overall hourly, 4-hour, and daily charts are still relatively weak.

The hourly and 4-hour moving averages are located above the price, and the short-term rebound first needs to face the pressure around 77,100; more importantly, around 77,400.

In terms of Bollinger Bands, the hourly and 4-hour channels are expanding downward, indicating that short-term fluctuations are still leaning towards bearish.

The daily Bollinger middle track has gradually formed an oscillation area below, the current lower track support is roughly around 76,200.

Therefore:

76,200 is the observation level, and 75,500 is the confirmation level.

If 76,200 is lost, the daily Bollinger channel will further open downward, then the fluctuation space may continue to expand; if it holds, there is still the possibility of low-level oscillation repair.

MACD: Rebound momentum is insufficient, and the downward cycle still faces pressure

Regarding MACD, the hourly chart has shown a low-level golden cross, indicating that the short-term downward momentum has slightly contracted, and there is a demand for a rebound repair.

However, the 4-hour MACD is still below the zero axis, and after several golden crosses, it has again turned downward; therefore, the downward pressure at the 4-hour level has not yet been completely lifted.

The daily MACD is at a death cross above the zero axis, while the momentum bars continue to expand, indicating that the daily pullback pressure is still increasing.

Although the weekly chart is still in a golden cross state, it cannot currently change the fact that the short-term is relatively weak.

Therefore, the current rebound is more appropriately understood as:

A technical repair during the downward process, rather than confirming a new round of upward movement.

The 4-hour shows bottom signals, but it must wait for the close confirmation

In terms of the DeMarker indicator, the hourly chart did produce a rebound after previously showing a bottom 9, but the rebound strength was limited, and the price again tested downward.

The 4-hour has also shown a bottom 9 signal, which means the 4-hour has entered a relatively easy position for rebound.

However, whether this signal is effective must wait for the 4-hour close confirmation.

If it can stabilize after the close, then the probability of a short-term rebound will significantly increase; if it continues downward, then this bottom signal will be invalid.

So here we still need to emphasize:

The emergence of a signal does not mean the market has reversed; the close confirmation is more important.

The most important positions currently

In summary from K-line, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, MACD, DMI, and DeMarker across multiple cycles, the current chart can be simply summarized as:

Hourly: Bearish.

4-hour: Low-level consolidation after a sharp drop, bears are dominant, but short-term rebound signals have appeared.

Daily: Has turned to bearish oscillation, closing lower for four consecutive days.

Weekly: The larger trend has not been completely damaged and is still in a high-level oscillation digestion phase.

Therefore, there is no need to remember too many points currently; just focus on a few key positions:

77,800: Important daily pressure point.

77,400: Important confirmation point for short-term rebounds.

76,400: The most critical short-term defense position currently.

76,200: Daily Bollinger lower track observation position.

75,500: Important defense position for this round of adjustment.

73,400: Daily support after further downward movement.

70,800—70,000: Important defense area for the larger cycle.

Final Judgment

Currently, Bitcoin has indeed shown more obvious short-term weakening signals.

With four consecutive daily lower closes, the price has broken below the key area around 77,800, the 4-hour bearish trend has strengthened, and the daily Bollinger Bands have begun to show signs of downward expansion, all indicating that the bears are currently more proactive.

However, the price has still not truly broken below 75,500 and other major key supports, so we cannot define the market directly as a large trend decline.

The most important thing now is to observe the two positions of 76,400 and 75,500.

If 76,400 is held, and the 4-hour reclaims 77,300—77,400, then there will still be opportunities for rebound repairs.

If 76,400 is effectively broken down and further lost at 75,500, then the entire oscillation structure will clearly deteriorate, and the downward space will further open.

Therefore, the current core thought can be summarized as:

Short-term bearish, but do not blindly chase the shorts; wait for confirmation of key support breaks or key pressure recoveries before determining the next phase direction.

Additionally, the U.S. CPI data will be released tonight, and market volatility may significantly increase before and after the data is announced; thus, the effectiveness of key points ultimately needs to be judged based on the K-line close after the data.

For the current segment of the market, what is most important is not to guess the bottom or the top, but to wait for the market to provide the answer itself.

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