On September 11 at noon, the market has already priced in tonight's CPI. The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury rose to about 4.94%, and the probability of a rate hike in September has been pushed to around 70%. Last night, the PPI reported a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, oil prices exceeded 100 dollars, and crypto is just the end of this macro chain.
The market situation is roughly as follows: BTC 76,700–77,100, falling below 77,000; ETH 2,440–2,455 dollars; SOL broke below 100 to around 99 dollars; the total market capitalization is about 2.73 trillion dollars. ZEC has retraced the most: from the high of 1,294–1,298 on the 9th, it has now fallen to 1,055–1,086, down about 13% in 24 hours. This is not a sudden deterioration of the fundamentals but a high-price premium bumping into macro deleveraging.
Tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time), the August CPI will be announced. The market expects an overall month-on-month increase of about +0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; core month-on-month is expected to be about +0.2%, and year-on-year could be at 2.4%. If it is hot, the rate hike pricing will be further solidified; if it is cool, there will be a chance to change the loss of 77,000 into a false breakdown. Next Wednesday is around the FOMC, and today is the last major test before the interest rate decision.
BTC
Resistance: 77,600–78,000, only after regaining this level can we talk about 78,800 and 80,000.
Support: 76,700 (today's low), then down to 75,500, 75,000.
Judgment: After failing at the upper edge of the 80,000 range, it has already slid outside the lower edge. Do not chase rebounds before the CPI announcement.
ETH
Resistance: 2,480–2,510.
Support: 2,430–2,440, then 2,400.
Judgment: Following declining assets. Breaking 2,430 will first hit round figures, no need to separately look for bullish reasons.
ZEC
Resistance: 1,160–1,200 (resistance after breaking), temporarily far above 1,250.
Support: 1,055–1,080 is the first band, 1,000 is the emotional line, then down to 880–900.
Judgment: The ETF narrative is still there, but the leverage and profit-taking near 1,298 have already been cleared out. If 1,000 does not break, the medium-term structure is not damaged; now 1,080 looks more like an observation point for a rebound after an excessive drop, not a position to chase shorts or longs.
Strategy
First, watch the CPI, then look at the weekend market. If the data is leaning toward hot, BTC must hold 75,500, ZEC must hold 1,000; if the data is moderate, then consider BTC retracing to 77,600–78,000. Continue to reduce leverage before the FOMC, do not use last night's levels to place today’s trades.
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