1. Fundamentals: The Eye of the Storm in the Bond Market, Rate Hike Bets Heat Up Overnight
First, let's look at the macro perspective, which is the "master switch" for the current market.
A dramatic scene has unfolded in the U.S. Treasury market: The U.S. Treasury originally announced it would buy up to $6 billion of longer-term U.S. Treasuries, but ultimatelyactually bought $5.19 billion, falling short of expectations. Meanwhile, on the yield front, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is nearing the critical psychological level of 5%.
Another variable that the bond market is pricing in is inflation.
As oil has recently surged, investors have already begun to raise their bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at next week's meeting, without even waiting for Friday's CPI data to be released. From the latest pricing of interest rate futures:
Current rate hike probability: 71%
Wednesday: 61%
A week ago: 49%
In just one week, rate hike expectations have soared from less than half to over seventy percent, causing the three major U.S. stock indices to fall.
Conclusion: The trends of mainstream currencies are generally hesitant, as the market awaits tonight's CPI for final guidance. Before the data comes out, the risk-reward ratio of chasing trades is not ideal.
2. Technical Perspective: Three Varieties, Three Rhythms
📊 ETH: A Dilemma of Washing Out, Short-Term Wait and See
Yesterday, ETH's hourly line briefly closed below 2440, but subsequently failed to continue the downward trend, instead entering a state of upward and downward fluctuation. The short-term trend has entered a chaotic adjustment mode, with a clear lack of direction.
From a larger timeframe perspective, the 4-hour large range oscillation pattern remains unchanged, continuing to operate between 2534 and 2355.
Operation Thought:
Short-term focus on waiting and observing, do not participate in the chaotic oscillation in the middle of the range
Wait for the price to make an effective directional choice against the upper (2534) or lower (2355) bounds of the large range before entering in the direction of the trend
During the washing stage, heavy betting can easily lead to being caught on both sides; patience is the core advantage at present
📊 SanDisk: Break Downward, Wait for a Rebound to Short
Yesterday, the price of SanDisk broke below the critical support level of 1700, which means the downside space has started to expand, and the bullish defense line has been breached.
Key Points:
Upper main pressure: 1706
Divide between bulls and bears: 1722
Short-term lower support: 1655, 1570
Operation Thought:
After the breakdown, it is not advisable to chase shorts, wait for price to rebound to the pressure zone for short opportunities
As long as the price cannot effectively recover the 1722 divide, the main tone for rebound shorts remains unchanged
If it falls below 1655, the next target will look towards 1570
📊 Hynix: Upward Segment Ends, Transitions to Adjustment
The hourly line of Hynix has declared the end of the upward segment since 1149, after hitting the 4-hour upward channel pressure. Yesterday, it broke below 1346, officially entering the adjustment phase.
Key Points:
Upper main pressure: 1346
Short-term main support: 1293
Operation Thought:
Again, with rebounds focused on shorts
If it rebounds to around 1346 and faces pressure, it is a good entry zone for shorts
Watch for support at 1293 below; if breached, the adjustment space is likely to widen
Core Reminder: Today is a key trading day ahead of CPI, with resonant uncertainties between fundamentals and technicals, it is advised to trade lightly and patiently, increasing operation intensity only after CPI is released.
If you want to know more details and specific operations, see you in the live broadcast room tonight, where we will analyze the market together and watch K-lines in real time to discuss logic.
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