The core conclusion is as follows: The CPI has not yet been announced, but interest rate trading has already jumped ahead—a CME indicates that the probability of a rate hike in September by 25bp shot up to 71.3%. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 4.943%, setting a new high for 2023. The Treasury's buyback reached 5.187 billion, falling short of the 6 billion cap, indicating a bearish macro outlook. However, the market has already priced in the expectations of a rate hike; if tonight's CPI meets or falls below expectations, a "bad news is good news" rebound could occur. Currently, Bitcoin is at 76,850, Ethereum is at 2,447, and gold is at 4,321, with all three assets oscillating at low levels. Ahead of the CPI, it is advisable to build light positions for a long trade near the bottom of the range, taking profits or exiting at original prices if the data is bearish, and looking for a spike upwards if the data is bullish.

Brothers, in the world of trade, do not fear the distance; you may encounter a like-minded soul along the journey. Hello everyone, I am Jiang Ye.

1. Macroeconomic Interpretation: Interest Rates Jump Ahead on the Night Before CPI, Rate Hike Expectations Hit 71%

Tonight's CPI is the main event, but interest rate trading has already jumped ahead.

The CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September has risen to 71.3%, while the chance of keeping it unchanged has dropped to 28.8%. More crucially, October is no longer a safe window, with a cumulative rate hike probability of 50bp at 27.6%. This set of figures straightforwardly indicates that the market is no longer hesitating about "whether to hike again," but is trading on the tightening path of "at least once, even twice."

At the same time, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged to 4.943% before the CPI announcement, refreshing the high since 2023 and nearing the psychological barrier of 5%. The repricing of long-term rates reflects concerns over "inflation resilience + further policy tightening."

The market had once pinned its hopes on the Treasury's buyback support. Under the leadership of Besant, the Treasury could repurchase up to 6 billion in 10-20 year bonds, but ultimately only 5.187 billion was transacted, falling short of the full amount. In the eyes of traders, "not fully bought" is a signal: the official is not in a rush to take the market, and the selling pressure on the long end has not ended.

These three clues collectively raised the global risk-free rate anchor, creating a real yield competition for BTC and ETH—when US Treasuries can secure nearly 5% risk-free returns, funds naturally flow back from the high-volatility crypto market to interest rate assets.

However, there is a crucial point to remind: The market has already priced in the expectations of a rate hike. A 71.3% probability of a rate hike means that if tonight's CPI meets or falls below expectations, it may instead trigger a "bad news is good news" rebound. What truly needs caution is if CPI exceeds expectations (Core CPI ≥ 0.3%), which would push the market further down.

Two scenario forecasts:

• ✅ Core CPI ≤ 0.2%: Inflation cools, rate hike expectations subside, all three assets rebound and recover.

• ⚠️ Core CPI ≥ 0.3%: Inflation heats up, rate hike expectations continue to rise, testing 75,000/2,350/4,280 downward.

Before the data release, large funds maintain a wait-and-see attitude, with the market mainly oscillating in a range. In operation, light long positions are preferable at the bottom of the range, taking profits or exiting at original prices if the data is bearish, but avoid holding positions.

2. Bitcoin Range: 76,150 is the Lifeline, 76,000-78,500 is the Core Battleground

The price has fallen from a high of 79,760 to a low of 76,464, currently rebounding to around 76,850. 76,150 is the initiation area of the previous small-scale rise; if this level cannot hold, market sentiment will deteriorate further.

1-Hour Level: TD Up: 1, starting a rebound from a low of 76,464, just reaching number 1. The middle line of the Bollinger Band is 77,307, and the price remains below the middle line, indicating that the rebound has not stabilized at crucial positions. MACD green bar -11.39, bearish momentum is diminishing. KDJ K38, J46, moving upwards from low levels, showing rebound momentum.

15-Minute Level: TD Down: 3, retreating from the high of 77,544, and currently oscillating near the middle line of the Bollinger Band at 76,848. MACD red bar 45.08, short-term rebound momentum remains. KDJ K63, J57, neutral.

▎Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: 77,300-77,500 (1-Hour Bollinger Middle Line + 15-Minute Previous High)

• Strong Resistance Zone: 78,500-78,900 (Previous Oscillation Platform)

▎Support Levels

• Core Support: 76,150-76,000 (Previous Ascending Initiation Area + Current Low of 76,464)

• Strong Support: 74,500-72,900

Operation Reference:

🔹 Light Long (Main Idea): Stabilize on return to the 76,000-76,800 range, build light long positions, stop loss 75,800, target 77,500→78,500→78,900, take profits in batches.

🔹 Aggressive Long: Near current price of 76,800 can try light long positions, leave room for reinforcements, stop loss 75,800, target 78,500→79,700.

🔹 High Short: Rebound to the 78,500-78,900 range and stagnate, try light shorts, stop loss 79,200, target 77,000→76,000.

⚠️ Key Point: 76,150 is the current lifeline for bulls and bears. If it holds, there is an opportunity for a recovery; if it breaks, it will continue to dip to 74,500. Maintain light positions before the CPI data; if the data is bearish, take profits or exit at original prices, and do not hold positions; if the data is bullish, quickly take profits and exit, do not be greedy.

3. Ethereum Range: 2,400 is the Lifeline, 2,400-2,485 is the Core Battleground

ETH is currently at 2,447, rebounding from a low of 2,403 to 2,474 before retreating, showing a similar overall trend to Bitcoin, with low-level oscillation being relatively weak.

1-Hour Level: TD Down: 3, starting a decline from a high of 2,522, advancing to number 3. The middle line of the Bollinger Band is 2,457, and the price remains below the middle line. MACD red bar 0.16, DIF-6.91 near DEA-6.99, showing a stalemate between bulls and bears. KDJ K47, J21, relatively low, indicating a demand for a rebound.

15-Minute Level: TD Down: 5, beginning a correction from a high of 2,474, progressing to number 5. The middle line of the Bollinger Band is 2,447, and the price is near the middle line. MACD red bar 0.17, almost at zero. KDJ K36, J10.80, in the oversold zone, indicating a short-term demand for a rebound.

▎Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: 2,460-2,485 (1-Hour Bollinger Midline + Previous Resistance)

• Strong Resistance Zone: 2,520-2,530 (Near Previous High)

▎Support Levels

• Core Support: 2,400-2,415 (Current Low of 2,403 + Round Numbers)

• Strong Support: 2,350-2,380

Operation Reference:

🔹 Light Long (Main Idea): Stabilize on return to the 2,415-2,420 range, show pin reversal divergence, take light longs, stop loss 2,390, target 2,460→2,480, second take profit 2,520→2,550.

🔹 Aggressive Long: Near current price of 2,445, can try light long positions, leave room for reinforcements, stop loss 2,390, target 2,460→2,480→2,520.

🔹 High Short: Rebound to the 2,480-2,485 range and stagnate, try light shorts, stop loss 2,510, target 2,440→2,400.

⚠️ Reminder: 2,404 is this round's lifeline, and 2,483 is the short-term demarcation of strength and weakness. If it stabilizes above 2,483, it will have a chance for a further upward rebound; if it breaks below 2,400 again, bears will continue downward testing. If the CPI data is bearish, take profits or stop loss at original prices; if the data is bullish, quickly take profits and exit, do not be greedy.

4. Gold Range: 4,315 is Oversold Rebound, Overall Trend is Bearish, 4,315-4,360 is the Core Battleground

Gold is currently at 4,321. Yesterday, it was impacted by PPI coming in higher than expected, raising rate hike expectations, causing gold to come under pressure after a rise, closing with a large bearish candle on the daily chart, breaking below the 4,360 level and hitting a low of 4,315, currently oscillating at low levels.

1-Hour Level: TD Up: 1, starting a rebound from a low of 4,315, just reaching number 1. The middle line of the Bollinger Band is 4,365, and the price remains below the middle line, indicating weak rebound strength. MACD green bar -7.16, bearish momentum still persists. KDJ K19, J23, in the oversold area, indicating demand for a rebound.

15-Minute Level: TD Down: 6, starting a correction from a high of 4,343, progressing to number 6. The middle line of the Bollinger Band is 4,327, and the price is below the middle line. MACD red bar 1.08, showing short-term rebound momentum. KDJ K31, J-1.79, extremely oversold, indicating a potential short-term rebound at any time.

▎Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: 4,350-4,360 (Short-term Moving Average Resistance + Previous Support Turned Resistance)

• Strong Resistance Zone: 4,380-4,390

▎Support Levels

• Core Support: 4,310-4,315 (Current Low of 4,315)

• Strong Support: 4,275-4,285

Operation Reference:

🔹 High Short (Main Idea): Rebound to the 4,350-4,360 range and come under pressure, try light shorts, stop loss 4,380, target 4,315→4,310, if it breaks, aim for 4,285→4,275.

🔹 Light Long (Only for Ultra-Short) : Stabilize on return to the 4,310-4,315 range, make light bets on rebounds, stop loss 4,295, target 4,350→4,360, enter and exit quickly.

⚠️ Key Logic: The daily level 5, 10-day moving averages have turned downwards, creating bearish pressure. The overall trend has already turned weak, and expect to see opportunities for pressure during rebounds. After yesterday's sharp decline, the market is prone to a bottom-rebound, do not determine a trend reversal based on minor rebounds; focus on the performance under pressure in the resistance area. Tonight's CPI data will lead to amplified volatility; strictly control positions and avoid heavy wagers in data trading.

5. Summary

On the night before CPI, interest rate trading jumped ahead with the probability of a rate hike in September hitting 71.3%. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries reached 4.943%, and the Treasury buyback fell short, indicating a bearish macro outlook. However, the market has already priced in the expectations for rate hikes; if tonight's CPI meets or falls below expectations, it may lead to a "bad news is good news" rebound.

Currently, all three assets are peaking at low levels: Bitcoin rebounded from 76,464 to 76,850, with 76,150 as the lifeline; Ethereum rebounded from 2,403 to 2,447, with 2,400 as the lifeline; Gold oversold rebounded from 4,315 to 4,321, with an overall bearish trend.

Operational Ideas:

• Bitcoin light longs on dips to 76,000-76,800, and high shorts on a rebound to 78,500-78,900, with 76,150 as the lifeline.

• Ethereum light longs on dips to 2,415-2,420, and high shorts on a rebound to 2,480-2,485, with 2,400 as the lifeline.

• Gold primarily high shorts at 4,350-4,360 on rebound, and light longs on return to 4,310-4,315.

Maintain light positions before the CPI data; if the data is bearish, take profits or exit at original prices, if the data is bullish, quickly take profits and exit, do not be greedy; risk management should be your top priority.

💬 Interactive Topic: Tonight's CPI, do you think Core CPI will be ≥0.3% or ≤0.2%? Share your judgment in the comments.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is merely a technical logical deduction based on the market and is for reference and exchange only; it does not constitute any investment advice. The financial markets are highly volatile, and contract trading carries a very high risk. Please trade rationally, strictly control your positions, set your own stop-loss, and bear your own profits and losses.

Thank you to all family members for your trust and companionship. The market changes rapidly, and steady compounding is the way to longevity. I am Jiang Ye, see you next time.

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