2026-09-11 ｜ In-depth Analysis ｜ Author: Misty Rain
A number from last night changed the market's complexion. The US August PPI was released: month-on-month +0.4%, year-on-year 5.4%, up from July's 4.8%, indicating commodity prices are clearly hot. The market did not hesitate—the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week jumped directly to 64%, with some estimates even reaching 70%. The market moved swiftly: BTC fell from the 78,000 level, dropping below 77,000, with an intraday low touching around 76,500; ETH, BNB, and SOL followed suit in weakening. But I want to remind you: this is just a "preheating." Tonight at 20:30, the August CPI will be the real hammer that decides the short-term direction. This article thoroughly explains the transmission logic of PPI, the actions of smart money, the technical watershed for ETH, and three scenarios for tonight.
01 PPI Surges: One Number Ignites Three Flames
First, let's clarify why PPI is so important. PPI is the Producer Price Index, which measures factory gate prices—the very top of the inflation chain. When upstream prices rise, they are either absorbed by corporate profits or passed on to consumers. Therefore, when PPI heats up, the market's first reaction is: CPI probably won't cool down either.
The specific reading this time: August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, 5.4% year-on-year, while July was at 4.8%—the year-on-year increase lifted by 0.6 percentage points, clearly above market expectations. The main reason for the hot commodity prices is evident, and the catalyst is nearby: Brent crude oil rose by 5% to $108 per barrel in a day, hitting the highest level since May. Oil prices act as the "fuel" for inflation; as long as fuel prices rise, there will be no cooling grounds for inflation expectations.
The three flames ignited: The first flame, the probability of rate hikes. According to CME data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates next week rose to 64%, having been below 60% before the data was released; the second flame, US Treasury yields. The yield on the two-year Treasury jumped 15 basis points in one day to 4.58%, reaching its highest level since 2024—short-term rates are being driven up directly by inflation expectations; the third flame, risk assets. BTC immediately dropped below 77,000, hitting a low near 76,500, with ETH, BNB, and SOL all following the decline.
In summary: PPI has firmly reinstated "persistent inflation" over the market's head with a single data point.
02 Smart Money's Moves on the Eve of CPI: Betting on a Downturn for SP500
More worth noting than the market itself is the attitude of funds. AiCoin smart money data shows that, before the CPI was announced, two high-probability whales had already positioned approximately $25.86 million in SP500 short positions—note that this is US stocks, not crypto.
The first address 0x42bc...3946 has been continuously increasing short positions and currently holds about $22.32 million in SP500 shorts at an average price of $7,603.33. This address has a win rate of 75% over the past 30 days and accumulated profits of +$612,900. The second address 0x5db8...f5d0 completed four rounds of profitable SP500 short positions last night and then opened shorts again, with current short positions worth about $3.55 million at an average price of $7,590.56, achieving a win rate as high as 93.75% over the past 30 days.
Both high-probability addresses are betting on a downturn in US stocks the night before CPI, releasing a clear signal: they are betting on "inflation stickiness"—with PPI already heating up, CPI is unlikely to cool down, and the pricing of risk assets will be adjusted accordingly. This is the same phenomenon occurring in the crypto market's decline: smart money is reducing risk exposure, and as crypto is a high-beta asset, it naturally bears the brunt.
03 ETH's Technical Watershed: 2441, No Room for Error on Either Side
Let's turn the focus back to ETH. In yesterday's article, we had monitored the 2400-2566 range, and today the technical level gives more precise coordinates.
On the 4-hour level: ETH's highest point remains at 2566.26, with the first support at 2441.06, and below that is 2355.56. The MACD's DIF (1.19) has crossed below the DEA (2.31), with green bars expanding, indicating that the momentum at the 4-hour level is still bearish; the lower band of the Bollinger band is at 2412.77, meaning the price is still some distance from the lower band and has not been oversold.
On the 1-hour level: ETH retreated from around 2500, with the middle band of the Bollinger band at 2487 and the lower band at 2465, the price has broken below the middle band and is running close to the lower band. The 15-minute level presents a different picture: the MACD showed a brief golden cross, with red bars just emerging, the current price is around 2463, and the Bollinger band is converging (upper band 2471.77, lower band 2425.79)—indicating signs of stabilization in the short term, but the two resistance levels of 2495 and 2475 press down from above, limiting rebound space.
So my judgment is: 2441 is the watershed for ETH in the short to mid-term. If it holds, the 2400-2500 range's oscillation can continue, waiting for the CPI to give direction before making a choice; if it breaks below, the next target is directly at 2404, and below that is 2355—at that point, it won't be oscillation but a downward trend. Today’s market watch, 2441 is more important than any indicator.
04 Tonight's CPI: Three Scenarios, Three Paths
Tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time), the US August CPI will be released, with the market expecting a year-on-year rate of 3.4% and a core CPI month-on-month increase of +0.2%. This is the last inflation data before next week's FOMC (September 15-16) and serves as the "anchor" for all current pricing. PPI has already set a precedent, and CPI can unfold in three scenarios:
Scenario One: CPI meets expectations or declines. The year-on-year rate holds at 3.4% or lower, with core month-on-month remaining moderate—probability of rate hikes will drop from 64%, BTC will recover to 77,000 and bounce towards 78,000, while ETH will first look at 2495;
Scenario Two: CPI exceeds expectations. PPI has already sounded the alarm; if CPI also heats up, the probability of rate hikes will rise to 70%, and 76,500 is not the bottom—BTC will look below at 75,000, and ETH's 2441 is likely to break, heading towards 2404 or even 2355;
Scenario Three: Overall figures are neutral, but details show stickiness. For example, high levels in core services and housing components—the market will experience a "drop followed by stabilization," with expanded volatility but unclear direction, leading to wide oscillations while waiting for the FOMC.
Simply put, tonight's CPI is not simply a matter of "good or bad," it determines the nature of next week's FOMC: whether it signals a "one-and-done" rate hike or the beginning of "continuous tightening." This distinction is the true watershed for the market.
05 Long-term Factors Uninterrupted: Regulation Tightens, Finance Expands
Short-term is data-driven, but the long-term fundamentals are quietly playing their cards, and the directions are not consistent.
On the bullish side: The UK House of Lords passed an amendment with 194 votes in favor and 138 against, requiring the UK Treasury to establish and publish a digital asset strategy within 12 months after the Financial Services and Markets Act comes into force, covering crypto assets, stablecoins, and tokenized securities—this is the latest move by a major economy towards "legalizing" crypto, following Hong Kong and Europe, which is a long-term boon for regulatory compliance; Trump also stated that he would make the already passed tax reduction policies permanent—implying potential benefits for risk assets from fiscal expansion.
On the bearish side: US Treasury Secretary Yellen announced that the US will sanction a large bank next week—geopolitical financial conflict is escalating; Brent crude is above $108, and if energy prices continue to rise, the "second shoe" of inflation could drop at any moment.
These factors may not immediately change the market today, but they determine the nature of the market after this round of decline: whether it will be a V-shaped recovery under data shocks or a trend downward in the shape of an L. Regulation and inflation are in a race; in the short term, look at inflation, in the long term, watch regulation, with the Federal Reserve's meetings in between.
06 How to Observe Tonight: Four Numbers, One List
No predictions, only responses. Tonight, here are four observation points to check against each data release:
CPI year-on-year vs expected 3.4%—above 3.4%, risk assets will be under pressure; below 3.4%, an immediate recovery will ensue;
BTC's 76,500 and 75,000—76,500 is today's intraday low; if it breaks below, 75,000 is a psychological barrier and also a previous accumulation area;
Whether the probability of rate hikes can break 70%—moving from 64% to 70% is a quantitative change; breaking through 70% represents a qualitative change, signifying that the market begins to price in "continuous rate hikes";
ETH's 2441 watershed—if it holds, the box will continue, but if it breaks, the trend will move down; this number is more direct than K-line patterns.
To sum up: PPI's surge tells us that the tail of this inflation is more stubborn than expected; smart money betting on a downturn for SP500 suggests that the winter for risk assets may not be over; but regulatory actions from the UK, Hong Kong, and Europe also tell us that the long road for crypto has not changed. Respect the data in the short term and trends in the long term—before tonight's CPI release, keep your hands steady, hold your position, and wait for that hammer. SafeX: Annxvvc
The above content is based on public market data and news analysis, shared for technical analysis framework purposes and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all levels and scenarios are hypothetical. Please make rational judgments and be aware of the risks. SafeX: Annxvvc
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
