Dear teammates, there are two things that must be mentioned upfront in today's morning session. The first is that the EU's ESMA has officially warned Polymarket and Kalshi, indicating that their operations in the EU may be unlicensed and that regulatory tightening is directly suppressing the demand for cryptocurrency derivatives. This comes as another regulatory variable following the critical vote on the updated CLARITY Act in the US Senate on September 15. The second matter is that after the PPI was announced, a whale increased their short position on BTC by about 117 coins on Hyperliquid, becoming the second largest short on the platform, while Hyperliquid's largest long position of 233 million has turned into a loss, with an unrealized loss of 3.39 million USD. On one hand, regulation is tightening, and on the other, the whale is betting on price decline with real money. The current price of BTC is 76,863 USDT, which is not a position to be taken lightly.
Current Price and Time
The current time is September 11, 10:47, with BTC priced at 76,863 USDT, a 24-hour change of -1.36%, and BTC market share at 58.48%. The fear and greed index is at 56, which is in the greed range. Note that the greed index of 56 alongside a price drop indicates that market sentiment has not fully turned to panic, suggesting there may still be room for emotional release below. Qinglan's crypto classes have always emphasized that declines in the greed range are often more deceptive than those in the panic range, as retail investors easily mistake pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Multi-Timeframe Overview
On the daily level, MA5=77,861.28, MA10=78,775.11, MA30=75,053.98, with the price of 76,863 having fallen below both MA5 and MA10, but still above MA30. The daily MACD DIF=1,999.00, DEA=2,762.74, histogram=-763.74, and the bearish momentum remains significant, where DIF has crossed below DEA but not in close proximity, with the daily RSI=46.32, indicating a neutral to weak stance. The daily structure tells us that the mid-term upward trend is being eroded, and the MA30 at 75,053 is the last line of defense at the daily level.
On the 4-hour level, MA5=77,136.76, MA10=77,726.19, MA30=78,715.10, with moving averages arranged bearishly, and the price of 76,863 below all three moving averages. The 4-hour MACD DIF=-581.43, DEA=-392.57, histogram=-188.86, with bearish momentum still being released, and RSI=30.77, approaching the oversold area but not yet entering it. The 4-hour level presents a typical bearish trend structure where a rebound to the 77,136 to 77,726 range will encounter the first level of moving average resistance.
On the 1-hour level, MA5=76,829.73, MA10=77,030.23, MA30=77,628.05, with the price of 76,863 slightly above MA5 but below both MA10 and MA30. The 1-hour MACD DIF=-370.67, DEA=-365.40, histogram=-5.27, with the histogram near the zero axis, indicating that the short-term downward momentum has slowed, but DIF remains below DEA. The 1-hour RSI=49.30, neutral. Most critically, the 1-hour EMA55=77,943.95, with the current price of 76,863 about 1.39% below EMA55, which is the core boundary for bullish and bearish in the TPV system.
On the 15-minute level, MA5=76,900.55, MA10=76,877.97, MA30=76,977.64, with the price of 76,863 below MA5 and MA10, and slightly below MA30. The 15-minute MACD DIF=-60.88, DEA=-82.31, histogram=21.43, with the histogram turning positive, DIF above DEA, indicating a slight rebounding momentum in the short term. The 15-minute RSI=55.05, neutral to strong. The 15-minute structure shows signs of short-term stabilization, but the level is too small to counter the bearish structures on the 1-hour and 4-hour levels.
TPV Signal Verification
First, let's look at the EMA55 condition. Currently, the price of 76,863 is below the 1-hour EMA55=77,943.95. Over the past 8 1-hour candles, there have been 0 instances where the closing price was above EMA55, with 0 crossovers. This means that the price has stayed below EMA55 continuously for 8 1-hour candles, confirming the bearish trend area in the TPV system. The absolute distance to EMA55 is 1.39%, significantly greater than the 0.3% volatility threshold, currently not meeting the conditions for volatility trading. The system judges it to be a unilateral trend, considering only short positions and not actively seeking longs.
Next, let's examine the shape condition. Recently, the 1-hour candle has shown a structure of decreasing rebound highs, with the 4-hour MA30=78,715.10 forming mid-term resistance, as the price has met resistance multiple times in the 77,136 to 77,726 range. Although there are long lower shadows appearing on the 15-minute level, the level is too small to provide an effective support stability signal for the 1-hour level. The pressure resistance conditions in short-selling are met at both 4-hour and 1-hour levels.
Finally, let's check the momentum condition. The 1-hour MACD histogram=-5.27, showing a slight reduction from the previous value, but DIF still remains below DEA, which indicates an early sign of bearish momentum exhaustion, but there is no clear signal of consecutive 2 cycles shortening yet. The 1-hour RSI=49.30 has rebounded from a low but has not returned above 50. The 4-hour MACD histogram=-188.86 is still expanding, showing no signs of momentum exhaustion. In summary, in the TPV conditions for closing short positions, the EMA55 condition is fully met, pressure resistance conditions are satisfied, while the momentum exhaustion condition is partially met but not sufficiently, and the system provides a bearish signal but waiting for momentum confirmation is necessary.
On-chain and Capital Perspective
The fear and greed index is 56, in the greed range, indicating that market sentiment has not yet entered panic, and there is still emotional release space below. The BTC market share is at 58.48%, and there has been no significant flow of funds into altcoins, indicating that the market is in a defensive state. The on-chain news is mixed, with favorable aspects including Nasdaq's 100 million USD investment in Kraken’s parent company, U.S. Bank completing a cross-border payment pilot with USBDC on Stellar, the UK House of Lords passing an amendment to the digital asset strategy, and whales acquiring 767.8 BTC at an average price of 78,628 USD through THORChain over two days, as well as a whale buying 1,951 ETH for 4.82 million USDT. On the unfavorable side, the ESMA warning for Polymarket, large bets on US Treasury yield options betting on a 10-year yield breaking 5%, Brent crude oil exceeding 100 dollars raising inflation expectations, Hyperliquid’s largest long position incurred a loss of 3.39 million USD, and whales increasing their short positions by 117 BTC.
Qinglan Crypto Class reminds everyone that the mixed nature of news is exactly where it is easiest to get lost in a unilateral market. The whale bought 767.8 BTC at 78,628, and the current price is 76,863, indicating that this batch of positions is already at a loss, while another batch of whales is increasing short positions, demonstrating that big players are also competing against each other. Ordinary traders should not attempt to guess which side will win, but follow the TPV system's signals, remaining firmly on the short side as long as the price is below EMA55.
Key Attack and Defense Levels
The first resistance level above is at the 1-hour EMA55=77,943.95, which is the boundary line for bullish and bearish in the TPV system. If the price rebounds here and cannot consecutively close above it for two 1-hour candles, it becomes a position for the bears to increase their short positions or open new ones. The second resistance level above is in the range of the 4-hour MA5=77,136.76 and MA10=77,726.19, which is the first level of moving average resistance for short-term rebounds. The third resistance level above is near the daily MA5=77,861.28, which creates a pressure resonance zone along with EMA55.
The first support level below is at the daily MA30=75,053.98, which is the last line of defense for the mid-term trend. The second support level below is at the 75,000 round number, where psychological support closely coincides with the daily MA30. The third support level below is in the 74,000 to 74,500 range, which is the lower edge of the previous accumulation zone. The current price, at 76,863, is in a transitional position between the upper pressure zone and the lower support zone, with the direction selection yet to be completed, but the TPV system has already provided its bias.
Trading Ideas
Direction: Bearish. The TPV system confirms that the price is below the 1-hour EMA55, with 0 instances of the past 8 1-hour candles closing above EMA55, confirming the unilateral bearish trend, considering only short positions and not actively seeking longs.
Entry Conditions: Aggressive traders may enter short positions when the price rebounds to the range of 77,136 to 77,726 (4-hour MA5 to MA10) and shows a long upper shadow or a top formation. Conservative investors should wait for the price to rebound near 77,943.95 (1-hour EMA55) and then enter short when there are consecutive two 1-hour candles that fail to close above it, and the 1-hour MACD histogram shows consecutive two cycles of shortening or when RSI recedes from high levels. Currently, a price of 76,863 is not recommended for direct shorting, as there is slight rebound momentum on the 15-minute level, making it easy to enter shorts at a local low.
Stop Loss: For aggressive short positions, set the stop loss above 78,100, that is, approximately 150 USDT above the 1-hour EMA55. For conservative short positions, set the stop loss above 78,500, that is, above the 4-hour MA10. Stop losses must be strictly enforced; the core discipline of the TPV system is to exit if the price crosses above EMA55.
Target Levels: The first target is the 75,053 to 75,500 range, corresponding to the daily MA30 support. The second target is the 74,000 to 74,500 range, corresponding to the lower edge of the previous accumulation zone. The third target is near 73,000; if the bets on US Treasury yields breaking 5% are fulfilled, risk assets may face greater selling pressure.
Position Management: Qinglan Crypto Class suggests that single position sizes should not exceed 5% of total capital, with staggered entries; the first entry should be lightly shorted in the 77,136 to 77,726 range, and the second entry should be increased when confirmed under pressure near 77,943.95, keeping total positions under 10%. In terms of risk-reward ratio, entering at 77,943.95 with a target of 75,053 presents an approximate potential profit of 2,890 USDT, with a stop loss at 78,100 corresponding to a potential loss of about 156 USDT, delivering a risk-reward ratio exceeding 18:1; even with a stop loss at 78,500, the risk-reward ratio exceeds 5:1, making this a trade worth waiting for.
Risk Warning
If the US Senate's CLARITY Act vote on September 15 turns out to be unexpectedly favorable, or the Nasdaq's investment in Kraken triggers a surge in institutional sentiment, BTC may quickly recover above the 1-hour EMA55—and the bearish outlook must switch immediately.
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📊 Qinglan TPV Trading Strategy Backtest Reference
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