BTC Breaks Below $78,000, $386 Million Liquidation Wave Hits, Are Rate Hike Expectations Pressuring the Market?

Summary: Bitcoin quickly retreated after rising to $79,760, with a decrease of 2.49% within 14 hours, prompting approximately $386 million in liquidations across the cryptocurrency market, notably with long positions being liquidated at a higher rate than short positions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows for two consecutive trading days, while rising oil prices revived inflation and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. In the short term, whether the $76,000 to $77,000 range can be maintained will determine whether this adjustment for BTC is a normal correction or a further weakening. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, news updates, and practical insights.

BTC Suddenly Plummets, $386 Million Liquidation Wave Emerges

On September 9, Bitcoin once rebounded to about $79,760 but quickly fell back, dropping 2.49% within 14 hours, reaching a low near $77,770.

This decline occurred not only in the spot market but also in the derivatives market, which showed significant deleveraging.

Data indicates that in this round of pullback, approximately $386 million in positions were forcibly liquidated across the network, with around $270 million in long positions liquidated and about $117 million in short positions liquidated, marking one of the highest single-day liquidation levels in the past week.

This indicates that leveraged long positions in the recent market have begun to be rapidly washed out.

For BTC, the biggest short-term risk is not just an ordinary pullback, but if a large number of leveraged positions continue to be forcibly liquidated, it may trigger a chain reaction of "price drop—long liquidation—further selling." Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, news updates, and practical insights.

ETF Funds Start to Cool Down, Buying Power is Not as Strong as Before

In addition to the deleveraging in the futures market, the flow of funds in the spot market is also worth noting.

Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of about $166.8 million over the previous two trading days, indicating that institutional demand for short-term needs is slowing down.

This does not mean that institutions have completely turned bearish.

However, when ETF fund inflows decrease and long-term holders begin to cash in profits, the market will lack sufficient strong new buying power to absorb selling pressure in the short term.

Thus, this adjustment in BTC is not caused by a single factor.

It resembles a result of leveraged liquidations, cooling ETF funds, and long-term holders taking profits occurring simultaneously. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, news updates, and practical insights.

What Really Makes the Market Nervous is the Federal Reserve Rate Hike Expectations

Compared to liquidation numbers, the macro variables behind this decline are more deserving of attention.

Recently, the rise in oil prices has reignited market concerns about accelerating inflation.

As inflation risk heats up, market expectations for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have also significantly increased, with the current probability of a rate hike rising to 60.2%.

This is not a friendly combination for BTC.

Because when the market begins to re-bet on higher interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may remain supported, leading to a decreased willingness for funds to allocate to high-risk assets.

Cryptocurrencies are inherently very sensitive to liquidity.

Thus, what the market is really worried about is not "how much was liquidated today,"

but whether oil prices continue to rise and further elevate inflation expectations, which may compress the Federal Reserve's easing space.

This is the greater source of macro pressure on BTC going forward. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, news updates, and practical insights.

$76,000 is an Important Lifeline for this Round of Market Activity

Although short-term pressure has clearly increased, BTC's technical structure has not completely turned bearish yet.

From a 4-hour perspective, the upward structure formed after Bitcoin's previous breakout at $82,300 still exists, and the current price remains near the $77,000 demand area.

Analysis shows that if BTC breaks below about $76,264, the 4-hour structure will officially turn bearish.

Therefore, we cannot directly conclude that the bull market has ended simply because BTC has broken below $78,000.

What truly needs attention is around $76,000.

If this area can hold, this current decline may still just be a deeper adjustment.

But if $76,000 is also effectively broken, the market's short-term structure will clearly deteriorate. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, news updates, and practical insights.

Only by Returning Above $80,000 Can Sentiment Be Reversed

From the liquidation heat map, the area near $77,400 is currently a noticeable liquidity zone.

Above, key levels to focus on are $79,700, $80,500, and $82,000.

In simple terms,

$76,000 determines whether the bulls can maintain their structure.

$78,000 to $80,000 determines whether the market can restore short-term strength.

$82,000 is an important pressure area from the previous market activity.

If BTC cannot regain a position above $80,000, market sentiment may remain cautious.

Conversely, if the price can quickly recover above $80,000 and further retest $82,000, then the short-term panic brought on by this liquidation could gradually dissipate. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, news updates, and practical insights.

Bitcoin Lemon's Viewpoint

Currently, the biggest risk for BTC has gradually shifted from a purely technical pullback to changes in the macro environment.

The rise in oil prices has reignited worries about inflation, the probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has climbed to 60.2%, and spot ETFs have continued to see net outflows while long-term holders are taking profits.

These factors together explain why BTC has quickly retreated after approaching the $80,000 mark.

In the short term, the $76,000 to $77,000 zone is a critical area that the bulls must defend.

If this area is breached, the market may further seek new demand zones.

In the absence of a clear alleviation of macro pressures, the $80,000 to $82,000 range will remain important resistance for BTC.

Thus, the current market is better suited to focus on the key price levels rather than hastily judging that the trend has completely reversed after a rapid decline.

Every day we will follow the hotspots of the crypto market, not just looking at what news is happening, but also understanding the logic and opportunities behind the market movements 👀🚀

Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, news updates, and practical insights.

Summary

Multiple factors are at play behind this BTC decline.

The $386 million liquidation wave accelerated the short-term drop, outflows from spot ETFs and long-term holders cashing out further increased market selling pressure, while rising oil prices reignited concerns about inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes.

The most critical observation point remains the $76,000 to $77,000 zone.

As long as this demand area holds, BTC still has the potential to rebound.

However, if $76,000 is effectively broken, the nature of this adjustment may change, and the market needs to be cautious of deeper pullbacks.

Before the announcement of important macro data like CPI, leveraged funds and interest rate expectations will continue to be two core variables affecting BTC's short-term trend. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, news updates, and practical insights.

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