As the Federal Reserve's meeting approaches, the emergence of various data makes the future trend in the cryptocurrency market increasingly clear; users who are bullish, Old Cui believes, are certainly feeling a bit frantic at this stage. On the data front, interest rate hikes have almost become a foregone conclusion, with the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds breaking above 5.30%, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rising to 4.8184%, hitting a recent high. The 30-year Treasury bonds are not highly relevant, but the 10-year bonds are getting closer to a 5% yield, which is a red line; crossing it would suggest that the American bubble is about to burst, and a wave of financial crisis could be possible. The core reason for the rate hikes is inflation data, while the core of inflation is Brent crude oil breaking $101 per barrel, with WTI crude oil increasing over 3% to $95.86 per barrel; do you all remember what Old Cui said earlier? Between March and September, if the truce issue with Iran is not resolved and oil prices are not effectively controlled, there will be a rhythm of interest rate hikes this year, and these two points have clearly not been achieved.

Negative signals are not only being released by the Americans; Iranian officials have stated that they are prepared for a more intense war with the U.S. if necessary. Additionally, in the past few days, the diplomatic relations between Russia and Germany have been filled with strong military signals, making Russia feel that it is a formal declaration of war on the diplomatic front, which has once again thrown the world's political landscape into chaos. This is not Old Cui's scare tactics; entering the second half of the year, military dynamics are gradually escalating, and Old Cui's conclusion is that even if a clear bill is passed this year, its impact will be greatly weakened. The current passage can only be considered a lifeline, and even a new high for Bitcoin is difficult to reach, as there is a larger market: international spot gold rising by 1.76% to $4432.28 per ounce, with spot silver increasing over 3%. The rapid growth of gold must indicate certain signals on some level; everyone has different thoughts and must be cautious.

Old Cui summarizes: yesterday Bitcoin had a short-term breakthrough, reaching a high of 79737, with selling pressure also being relatively strong, today it has again dropped to 77912; those who have a bearish stance have made some gains, as long as there is an upward breakthrough, the short-selling issue won't be too big. The mid-term trend for this round of bulls feels like it has come to an end, with the only remaining news supporting prices being the resolution time of the clear bill. Making a prediction for the year, if interest rate hikes occur within the year, along with an escalation of military conflict, Bitcoin is likely to return to the six-digit beginnings; a new low is unlikely to occur, after all, there are still positive news supports coming up. The best-case scenario this year is simply the arrival of both the bill and the rate cuts simultaneously; if these two are achieved within the year, it still won't create a new high, this year is not the best time. The yield of old U.S. bonds combined with military influences and even inflation data is extremely negative. For spot and contract users, at this stage, the only option is to short, there is no option to go long! Once again, a reminder, do not trade small altcoins!

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