1. Market Review: Index Weakens, Chips Under Pressure, ETH Remains Steady

Yesterday, ETH maintained a range-bound oscillation, with bulls and bears repeatedly pulling back and forth within a narrow range. Directional choices still need to wait for key level breakthroughs to confirm.

Meanwhile, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, SanDisk and Sk hynic simultaneously surged and then fell back. After experiencing previous strength, the storage chip sector has shown signs of significant short-term momentum decay.

Overall, the market presented a pattern of "index weakening, chips under pressure, ETH remaining steady": risk assets generally lack incremental funds to drive momentum, and cautious sentiment is prevailing.

In summary: When the big direction is unclear, waiting is more important than predicting.

2. Fundamentals: U.S. Treasury Buyback Materializes, Risk Assets Lack Upward Momentum

Yesterday, the scale of the U.S. Treasury buyback was finally revealed. The market had anticipated that the Treasury would further increase the buyback scale—Bessenet had earlier publicly stated that the buyback scale might expand to over $4 billion, so this limit of $6 billion did not create an unanticipated impact.

However, the more noteworthy aspect is the discrepancy in intensity: compared to the previous $40 billion purchase scale, this round of buyback is still far off, and the actual released easing effect is limited, leading to some degree of disappointment regarding the expectation for a "liquidity gift package."

Simultaneously, triple pressures stack up, collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets:

• U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise—the risk-free interest rate is up, directly elevating the pricing denominator for various assets;

• Oil prices remain high—concerns about imported inflation continue to fester;

• The job market is warming up—strong data has instead reinforced the market's expectations for interest rate hikes.

Against this backdrop, ETH failed to gain sufficient upward momentum, with the three major U.S. stock indices closing lower, and SanDisk and Sk hynic both under pressure.

The logical chain is quite clear: Weaker liquidity easing than expected → rising yields → falling risk appetite → crypto and tech stocks under pressure simultaneously. This also explains why crypto assets and the semiconductor sector were collectively weak yesterday.

3. Technical Analysis: Operational Ideas for Three Major Assets

⚠️ The following technical points are for analysis reference only, representing a personal observational perspective and do not constitute trading advice. Please be sure to make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance.

1. ETH: Range Not Broken, Continue to Wait and See

ETH is currently still operating within the range of 2534–2440, and the previous oscillation pattern has not changed.

• Structural Judgment: Range oscillation, with temporary equilibrium between bulls and bears, no trend to speak of.

• Operational Tendencies: Mainly wait and see, waiting for a breakout before intervening in the trend, avoiding premature predictions.

• Key Levels:

  • Upper range (resistance): 2534

  • Lower range (support): 2440

The most worrisome thing in a range is "guessing the breakout direction." Until you see an effective breakout, any preemptive bets are essentially gambling. Patiently waiting for confirmation of the breakout is the approach with higher winning probabilities.

2. SanDisk: High-Level Oscillation Adjustment, Waiting for Reversal Signals at Both Ends

Since the surge and subsequent decline yesterday, SanDisk's hourly chart has entered a high-level oscillation adjustment mode, and short-term bullish momentum has noticeably weakened.

• Current Main Oscillation Range: 1798 – 1718

• Operational Ideas: Wait for reversal signals at both ends of the oscillation range before making decisions—

  • If there is a reversal signal near 1798, watch for falling opportunities;

  • If it falls to around 1718 and shows stabilizing reversal signals, watch for rebound opportunities.

• Core Discipline: Do not chase positions within the range, only act on "signal confirmation," and do not fight without preparation.

High-level oscillations are often a buildup before a change. Until the signal comes out, the position is just a position, not a direction.

3. Sk hynic: Momentum Weakens, Seek Short on Rebound

Sk hynic has entered a high-level correction after being blocked by the upward channel at the four-hour level, and the upward wave price since the 1150 lows has broken below the 1405 support level, leading to a decline in short-term upward momentum.

Operational Reference (not investment advice):

• Scenario One: Wait for a rebound to 1405 and look for downward signals → Go short

• Scenario Two: After the rebound, if it breaks below 1358 and shows a downward signal → Chase short

• Lower Target: Aim for 1300

The key point is in the words "after the rebound"—do not blindly chase shorts during a downturn; wait for the rebound to provide better risk-reward ratios before entering, as that enhances the risk-reward profile.

4. Summary and Risk Warning

• Structural Judgment: ETH is in range oscillation, mainly wait and see; SanDisk is in high-level oscillation, waiting for signals at both ends; Sk hynic has weakened momentum, waiting for short opportunity on rebound.

• Main Line Logic: U.S. Treasury buyback below expectations + rising yields + concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes → Risk assets lack short-term upward momentum.

• Discipline First: Regardless of bulls or bears, stop-loss and position management always take precedence over directional judgments.

• Risk Warning: The above content is only a compilation of market information and technical communication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The price fluctuations in digital assets and derivatives can be severe, potentially leading to total loss of principal. Please assess your own risk tolerance fully and make cautious decisions independently before entering the market or taking action.

• If you want to learn more details and specific operations, see you in tonight's live broadcast. We will analyze the market and view the logic of the candlestick chart in real-time.

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