Original ｜Odaily Planet Daily（@OdailyChina）
Author｜Wenser（@wenser 2010 ）
Last night, the much-mocked and eagerly anticipated son of Biden's meme project—the LAPTOP coin—finally debuted.
Before the opening, the prediction market estimated that LAPTOP's FDV range would be between 100 million to 250 million USD, but its opening market value once surged over 200 billion USD. Overnight, the LAPTOP price quickly fell back and is currently reported at 0.85 USD, down 99% from its peak, with a FDV currently reported at 850 million USD.
In this meme farce, some made profits from the opening shoot, while many others were "counter-sniped"; some made hundreds of thousands of dollars through Substack subscriptions, while others successfully took profits after playing with fire. For most of the losers, LAPTOP is destined to become another pillar of shame, comparable to Argentine President Milei's meme coin LIBRA.
No wonder Trump’s son Eric mocked Biden's son Hunter: "You should go back to painting." It is evident that reading K-line charts might be second nature to the business-savvy Trump family, but for Biden’s son, who once battled addiction and is now a "multi-million debtor," it clearly poses a significant challenge. (Recommended reading:《Biden’s son launches LAPTOP meme coin and plans airdrop for TRUMP players》)
Opening market value exceeds 200 billion USD, LAPTOP only stays at peak for less than half an hour
Before the launch of LAPTOP, the community generally predicted its first-day market value would fall within the 100 million to 250 million USD range.
At that time, on predict.fun, the probability of “LAPTOP's FDV being above 100 million USD one day after launch” was 73%, while that of “FDV being above 250 million USD” was 47%, and the probability of the market value exceeding 1 billion USD was only 13%. The market generally predicted LAPTOP's upper limit could not reach 1 billion USD, with the main divergence focusing on whether the market value could stabilize above 250 million USD.
Last night at 8 PM, LAPTOP officially launched on the Base network, peaking at a market value exceeding 250 billion USD; this glory lasted only 15 minutes, and the LAPTOP price dropped below 130 USD, rapidly halving its market value; by 8:45 PM, the price plummeted to below 5 USD, down 97%. In less than an hour, LAPTOP had nearly completed the life cycle of most meme coins. However, from a market valuation perspective, LAPTOP has well exceeded market expectations.
Currently, there is still half a day till "closing," and on predict.fun the probability of “FDV being above 250 million USD” has risen to 87%; the probability of “FDV being above 500 million USD” is temporarily reported at 52%; the probability of “FDV being above 1 billion USD one day after launch” is temporarily reported at 21%.
As of the time of writing, LAPTOP's market value is reported at 850 million USD, with a price reported at 0.85 USD, having dropped below the 1 USD threshold, down over 99%.
Profits and losses: Some made hundreds of thousands, while others lost millions
The LAPTOP coin, featuring the "Biden's son" theme, has also taught the crypto market a harsh lesson, much like former US President Biden.
At midnight today, the on-chain data analysis platform Bubblemaps reported that trading for the LAPTOP token saw "blood flowing in the streets," with about 80% of traders facing losses. It is said that at least 2 traders lost between 100,000 to 1 million USD, 100 traders lost over 10,000 USD, around 700 traders lost over 1,000 USD, and another approximately 11,000 traders faced smaller losses. Considering the currently lower prices, the scale of these losses is expected to further expand.
Furthermore, there was no absence of insider trading manipulations in the "celebrity meme coin." Bubblemaps stated last night that among the major addresses holding LAPTOP, about 60% had no prior on-chain activity, with most new wallets actually receiving funds only yesterday.
Of course, in this meme feast, while some lost, others profited; the meme coin market has always been a zero-sum game.
Profiting groups: Market makers including Wintermute, GSR, G20, etc.
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi monitoring, the market makers for LAPTOP include institutions like GSR Markets, G20, and Wintermute, with these three institutions holding 15.5 million, 5 million, and 2.5 million LAPTOP tokens respectively, accounting for 2.3% of LAPTOP's total supply.
Last night around 9 PM, Wintermute had sold over 466,000 LAPTOP at an average price of 4.47 USD, worth about 2.08 million USD, and continues to liquidate on-chain.
Those who played with fire: Profiteers from sniping saw returns of 278 times, 65 times, and 4 times
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader bought 471 LAPTOP for 997 USD, then sold all two minutes later for 66,800 USD, earning 65,100 USD, yielding 65 times.
One address bought 9,124.19 LAPTOP at an average price of 27.383 USD upon the launch, spending 250,000 USD; it has now sold nearly 93% of the holdings at 140.48 USD, earning over 1.04 million USD, with a return rate of 415.8%.
Another whale invested 240,000 USD at an entry price of 24 USD, and subsequently sold LAPTOP worth 1.2 million USD, making approximately 1 million USD in profit.
Suspected insider trading: 2 subscription airdrop wallets cashed out 600,000 USD after claiming tokens
According to crypto trader Rune monitoring, 2 LAPTOP subscription airdrop wallets cashed out 600,000 USD after claiming the tokens.
One new wallet (0x8DA...A18d) received 4,276 LAPTOP for free, then sold them for about 400,000 USD.
More intriguingly, this wallet later transferred 0.02 ETH to another new wallet (0xc27...b591), which also received 4,276 LAPTOP for free and immediately sold them after the price fell due to the previous sell-off, cashing out approximately 200,000 USD.
Major losses award: Buying at a peak losing 98%, bottom fishing losing 92%, 87%
Last night at 9 PM, according to on-chain analyst Yu Jin monitoring, one address bought 919.4 LAPTOP at 217.5 USD, spending about 200,000 USDC. Just about 50 minutes later, the LAPTOP price had plummeted to 4.4 USD, and the value of that address's holding shrank by 98% to around 4,045 USD, reflecting an unrealized loss of about 196,000 USD, and it became one of the addresses with the most severe losses in LAPTOP.
Another address bought LAPTOP twice, spending about 250,000 USD, with the value of the earlier purchase dropping to 700 USD a few hours later; the later purchase was immediately halved after buying. This address holds 25,286 LAPTOP, with an average cost of 9.8 USD, reflecting a loss of 92%, equating to a loss of 227,000 USD.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a certain address spent 170,000 USD after LAPTOP dropped 98%, buying 28,400 LAPTOP at 5.97 USD each; this holding is currently worth 21,000 USD, down 87% from the buying price.
Ansem, Bonkguy, Eric Trump express anger: LAPTOP becomes LIBRA, is Hunter Biden the next Milei?
Before and after LAPTOP's launch, several traders in the crypto industry expressed strong bearish sentiments, including Eric Trump, who mocked Hunter Biden, saying “it would be better for you to go home and paint,” which reflects that this farce was already destined.
Crypto trader Ansem previously stated that 99% of celebrity meme coins are scams, where celebrities and developers obtain a large stash of tokens in advance, use hype to attract retail investors, and then sell off without continuing operations. Ansem is skeptical about Hunter Biden's upcoming LAPTOP coin, believing it to be no different from past projects.
After LAPTOP's launch, the recently popular "best meme coin hunter" Bonk Guy harshly criticized Hunter Biden's “LAPTOP” token project, stating that after observing the project further post-launch, he found it evidently involved speculative behavior “only aiming to extract profits with little knowledge of the crypto industry.”
He particularly questioned the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of over 100 billion USD following the token's launch, stating that this valuation is “absurd,” and questioned why Hunter Biden himself becomes the narrative core of the crypto market, pointing out that the public's focus on Hunter Biden largely stems from numerous controversies raised during his father Joe Biden's presidency, while the Biden administration has generally taken a tough regulatory stance towards the crypto industry. Bonk Guy finally warned that investors buying this token at the current valuation face extremely high risks, stating that “anyone buying it deserves to lose 100% of their funds.”
It is worth mentioning that prior to LAPTOP's launch, Hunter Biden had publicly explained the reason for launching the meme coin by saying that users “should not expect me or anyone else to make this token more valuable,” stating that LAPTOP is not just about holding an asset but is an expression of an attitude. Now it seems, this attempt, akin to seeking to imitate the Trump family's token ventures poorly, has backfired, leaving him with virtually no reputation remaining, reducing him to a laughingstock in the crypto market.
It is noteworthy that according to previous disclosures by the foundation behind LAPTOP, the Phoenix Veritas Foundation revealed that the total supply of this meme coin is 1 billion tokens, with 350 million tokens unlocked at the TGE, accounting for 35% of the total supply. Among these, the first-day community airdrop, future airdrops, and liquidity each account for 10%, while the foundation's treasury holds 5%. Among the 100 million LAPTOP tokens airdropped on the first day, 20 million are intended for distribution to users of the TRUMP trading loss platform, while 80 million are aimed at users subscribing to Hunter Biden's "Where's Hunter" Substack before September 6. The redemption period is 30 days, and any unclaimed tokens will be permanently destroyed; the future airdrop of 100 million tokens will be allocated at the discretion of the Phoenix Veritas Foundation.
At this point, I wonder if users who suffered losses in TRUMP trading have indeed received that 20 million LAPTOP as promised?
Latest news shows that the LAPTOP foundation's account has been banned, but Hunter Biden himself still stated that: “I will never give up on LAPTOP and am working hard to restore the account. In the meantime, the foundation will share the latest updates and thoughts through the Medium platform.”
As for whether this is just a delaying tactic or a sincere statement, everything may rely on the character of Hunter Biden himself.
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