【MSX Research Institute·US Stock RWA Daily Observation】 is a flagship daily report produced by the leading RWA trading platform MSX. Relying on strong macro research capabilities, we capture the core pulse of global traditional US stocks, liquidity changes, and the RWA tokenized market, helping you to strategically position high-quality assets.
Today's Observation
Apple officially enters the foldable screen era. On September 9, newly appointed CEO John Ternus hosted the autumn launch event for the first time, introducing the first foldable iPhone Duo, priced at $1999, while the starting prices of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were raised to $1199 and $1299, respectively. More noteworthy than the product form itself in this release is that Apple is raising the price ceiling for the iPhone: in the context of a highly mature global smartphone market, where the iPhone still contributes nearly half of the company's revenue, the foldable screen provides a path to continue increasing revenue without relying on a significant increase in shipments, but instead relying on ASP and the proportion of high-end products.
Historically, the day of Apple's launch event has not been a stable catalyst for stock prices. In past major iPhone releases, the stock generally declined more than it rose on the day of the announcement, but when extended over 60 trading days post-launch, the proportion of increases significantly increased. This is understandable: the launch event trades on anticipated fulfillment, whereas the market will need to validate new product sales, ASP, gross margins, and replacement cycles over the next two quarters. Especially after Apple's latest quarter where iPhone revenue grew by over 20% year-on-year, setting a record for the same period, whether this new foldable screen could continue this cycle of hardware growth is the more critical variable.
Data in One Minute
• John Ternus's first time hosting the annual iPhone launch event as Apple CEO, with the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max launched simultaneously, starting at $1,199 and $1,299, both starting from 256GB; pre-orders on September 12, available on September 18;
• The first foldable iPhone is priced at $1999, featuring a book-style foldable design, and an inner screen of approximately 7.6 inches, making it the highest-priced iPhone product currently;
• In the past 16 major iPhone launch days, Apple's stock rose on 5 occasions and fell on 11, with an average return of about -0.7%; over the 60 trading days after the launch, there were 12 occasions of increases, with an average return of about 4.2%;
• The best historical 60-day performance was during the iPhone 11 cycle, increasing by 21.51%; the weakest was during the iPhone XR/XS cycle, decreasing by 21.68%;
• On the day of this launch event, Apple's stock closed at about $313.55, down about 0.84%, continuing to align with the historical pattern of weaker performance on new product launch days;
• Last quarter, iPhone revenue was $54.252 billion, growing by 22% year-on-year, reaching a record for the June quarter; the growth was mainly driven by Pro models, accounting for about 49.6% of Apple's total revenue;
• IDC predicts a 13.9% decline in global smartphone shipments to 1.09 billion units by 2026, but the foldable screen category is still expected to grow by about 20%; the significance of the Duo lies more in Apple's entry into the still-growing ultra-high-end segment, rather than changing the overall shipment trend of the smartphone market.
MSX View
Understanding the iPhone Duo cannot just be about how many units it can sell, but also about the role it plays in Apple's business model.
Apple is still a company highly reliant on the iPhone. Close to half of the company's latest quarter revenue comes from the iPhone, and the recovery in Greater China is also primarily driven by the iPhone. In recent years, Apple's core issue has not been user attrition but rather that smartphones are becoming increasingly durable, leading to longer replacement cycles. In this situation, while regular upgrades of chips, imaging, and battery life can retain users, they struggle to create new reasons for replacement. The significance of the foldable screen is that Apple finally provides a visible change in product form.
The $1999 pricing indicates that Apple is not in a hurry to make the Duo a mass-market product. The first-generation product seems more like an attempt to probe ultra-high-end demand: validating the foldable form, supply chain yield and developer adaptation with limited sales, while further pushing the iPhone price ceiling beyond the range of Pro Max. As long as the Duo attracts users who originally intended to purchase Pro Max, iPad mini, or even ultra-thin laptops, even if it only accounts for a small portion of iPhone shipments, it has the opportunity to improve average selling price and product mix.
However, a high price does not equal high profits. The costs of the foldable screen, hinges, dual batteries, and new heat dissipation structures will increase material and after-sales costs, and the yield for first-generation products typically does not match that of mature models. Apple's latest hardware business gross margin is 40.1%, significantly lower than the service business's 75.6%; if the Duo is just expensive but does not achieve sufficiently good yield and scale effects, its contribution to overall profit margins may not be as substantial as its revenue performance suggests. Deliveries won't start until late October, which also means its financial contribution to the current quarter will be relatively limited.
Moreover, after smartphones enter a mature phase, regular upgrades of chips, cameras, and battery life have become increasingly difficult to prompt users to upgrade early. The foldable screen provides a more intuitive reason to buy: it remains a phone when closed and resembles a small tablet when opened. Multi-window use, Apple Pencil functionality, and half-fold usage also allow the iPhone to extend significantly towards office, creative work, and large-screen content consumption for the first time. AI-optimized user experiences enhance seamless interaction across all scenarios. If the new Siri can understand personal information and screen content, the Apple Watch can organize daily information, and AirPods can perform real-time translations, then AI will no longer just be a feature in a single device but will become a unified entry point that connects phone, watch, and earphones. Users switch among different devices, but the underlying personal information, tasks, and services flow continuously, which is where Apple has an advantage over single AI applications.
From a business model perspective, the two paths also complement each other. The Duo and Pro series are responsible for increasing hardware prices, while AI focuses on enhancing device usage frequency and further driving iCloud, App Store, AppleCare, and other subscription services. The latest quarter's hardware product gross margin for Apple stands at 40.1%, while service gross margin reaches 75.6%. Thus, for Apple, the ideal result is not just selling a more expensive Duo but using the new form to attract users to upgrade, converting new users and usage time into long-term service revenue.
The longer term value lies in the ecosystem. Apple already has over 2.5 billion active devices; selling one new iPhone connects to revenue from the App Store, iCloud, payments, advertising, and subscriptions. The Duo's large screen, multi-tasking, and Apple Pencil support offer new usage scenarios for office work, gaming, content consumption, and generative AI. If developers are willing to redesign applications for this form, the Duo brings not just a hardware upgrade but also more service usage time and higher value per user.
Thus, the next things worth analyzing are the initial delivery wait times, channel reorders, whether Pro Max is being noticeably diverted, and the new service revenue brought by Duo users. Selling at a high price is just the first step; whether it can turn a high-end niche device into a new entry point for the ecosystem is what John Ternus needs to prove to the market since taking office.
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Risk Warning: The macro economy and US stock market fluctuations are severe. The content of this article is for academic and research observation reference by the MSX Research Institute only and does not constitute any investment advice.
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