2026-09-10 | In-depth Analysis | Written by: Misty Rain

BTC fell below $78,000 in the early morning, resulting in $264 million being liquidated in an instant, but the price quickly recovered. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $1.68 billion, with long positions accounting for about 73%—the ones being hit hard are clearly the bulls. However, the market's long-short ratio not only didn't drop but actually increased from 1.05 a week ago to 1.33. It seems that the market is trying to tell you something with its actions: liquidation does not scare off bulls; the real hesitation in the market comes from something much bigger. This article will thoroughly explain the financial truth behind the $78,000 battle, macro variables, and how to observe tomorrow.

01 The "Liquidation Drill" in the Early Morning: $264 Million Vaporized, But Prices Recovered

Let’s first restore the context. BTC has been tugging back and forth at the $78,000 mark for more than a day. It fell below this mark early in the morning, triggering about $264 million in liquidations—though this figure is sizable for a single drastic move, the price quickly recovered, making it seem as if nothing had happened.

But pulling the camera back changes the calculation: in the last 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached a staggering $1.68 billion, with long positions making up about 73%. This means the group taking the hardest hit this time was the bullish side. Logically, such a large liquidation should scare away leveraged funds, calming the market—yet that didn't happen. After the liquidation, leverage did not noticeably drop, and the market's long-short ratio rose from 1.05 to 1.33, implying that long positions are still piling up.

This is the most paradoxical aspect of the battle at $78,000: the price has come back, but the structure of the chips tells us that the bulls have not conceded defeat, and are even doubling down.

02 Three Truths: Who is Running, Who is Buying, Who is Hesitating

Why is the market so twisted? Because it has never been a monolith; the current financial landscape is actually three forces pushing in three different directions.

The first truth: Some are running away. The spot market has seen a net outflow of approximately $540 million in the last 24 hours. Short-term funds, seeing the spike in the early morning, reacted by pulling out—this portion of money cannot withstand the pressure, and is the easiest to scare off by liquidation data.

The second truth: Some are buying. ETFs have maintained a net inflow for three consecutive weeks, with institutional funds continuing to flow in. For institutions, every retest near $78,000 is a window for reallocation—they are looking at a longer time scale.

The third truth: Some are hanging over our heads. Whales' unrealized profits have risen to $9.07 billion, setting a new high. Translated, this means the most lucrative holdings in the market are now significantly profitable and could choose to cash out at any moment. The potential selling pressure of $9.07 billion is the largest sword hanging over the $78,000 battle.

The runners, buyers, and watchers counter each other out, causing the price to naturally not break out in any direction. The so-called sideways movement is essentially another way of writing divergence.

03 The More Liquidations, the More People Add Positions? What Does a Long-Short Ratio of 1.05→1.33 Indicate

Logically, liquidations should force leveraged positions to withdraw and cool down the market. But in this round, it did not: the liquidated positions were quickly replaced by new leverage; after the bulls were caught off guard early in the morning, they not only did not retreat, but the long-short ratio continued to climb. This indicates that the bulls see that early spike merely as a "pin" and not a "trend alteration."

Here’s an observation method worth noting: to determine whether **$78,000** is a "healthy retest" or "the eve of breaking down," look at three combinations, not just the price:

• Hold above $78,000 + Declining Open Interest: indicates that the liquidation has indeed released some leverage, and market structure is becoming healthier. If there is a new direction afterward, it is more credible;

• Breaking below $78,000 Again + Open Interest Not Declining: suggests that leverage hasn't been cleared, and bullish liquidations may continue to expand, meaning risk hasn't been fully released;

• Price Rises + Open Interest and Long-Short Ratio Continue to Climb: indicates that chase funds have become crowded again, and one should be increasingly cautious of reverse risks as the price rises.

In short: prices can be pulled back in an instant, but the structure of the chips cannot deceive us. Keeping an eye on open interest, the long-short ratio, and liquidation data is more telling of the situation than just staring at the candlestick itself.

04 Technical Characteristics on the Eve of Trend Reversal: Bollinger Bands Contraction, MACD Convergence

Now let’s look at a detail from the technical perspective. On the hourly candlestick chart, price has been tugging back and forth between $1721 and $1821, with the upper Bollinger band at $1797 and the lower band at $1728, squeezing the volatility to the extreme; MACD's DIF and DEA are gradually converging below the zero line. This is a typical shape on the eve of a trend reversal: the narrowing of fluctuations to the extreme indicates that bullish and bearish forces are temporarily balanced. Once an external force disrupts this balance—like tomorrow's CPI—the compressed elasticity will be released collectively.

The longer the sideways movement lasts, the more violent the breakthrough will be. So don’t dismiss the dullness of the market; "dullness" itself is a signal: it indicates that the market is waiting, waiting for a sufficiently large reason to choose a direction. Before a reason emerges, any unilateral bets are essentially a gamble against probability.

05 The Macro Poker Table: Four Cards Have Already Been Laid Out

The "bigger thing" that is causing hesitation in the market is macroeconomics. On the table on September 10, at least four cards are placed:

The first card, U.S. Treasury yields continue to soar. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has broken above 5.30%, while the 10-year yield has risen to 4.8184%, setting a recent high. The ongoing increase in risk-free rates means that the discount pressure on global risk assets is becoming heavier—this is the heaviest card placed over the crypto market and is also the thing that assets like gold and Bitcoin, which "do not generate cash flow," fear the most.

The second card, both risk aversion and inflation are fermenting simultaneously. International spot gold rose by 1.76% to $4432 per ounce, and silver gained over 3%; Brent crude has surpassed $101 per barrel, and WTI is reported at $95.86. Rising oil prices elevate inflation expectations, causing gold and silver to attract risk-averse funds. In the Middle East, the White House assesses that the Iran conflict could continue until January 2029, while Trump claims the war will end in November—this divergence in timelines itself represents uncertainty.

The third card, the tightening narrative hasn’t vanished. A member of the Japanese central bank's policy board stated they would continue to raise interest rates in the current accommodative financial environment. The tightening narrative among major global central banks hasn't ended due to the Fed's hesitance.

The fourth card, regulation and finance are working in two directions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has urged the Senate to advance the CLARITY Act and establish a regulatory framework for digital assets—this represents a long-term positive effect for policy "compliance"; Trump proposed that if the Republicans win both houses, they will provide a $5000 dividend to every American adult—this opens up possibilities for fiscal expansion and is a potential liquidity story.

Putting them together: in the short term look at funds, in the medium term at interest rates, and in the long term at regulation. Three cards with different time scales laid out simultaneously on the table provide ample reason for the market's hesitation.

06 Tomorrow is Friday: How to Observe the $78,000 Battle Going Forward

The U.S. August CPI on September 11 (Friday) is the last inflationary data before the Fed's September decision, and it will serve as the "ruling day" for all current discrepancies. After tomorrow, many unresolved questions will provide phase-based answers.

Next, you can focus on three points:

• Can $78,000 truly hold? If it holds and open interest declines, it indicates that the bullish structure is healthy; if it breaks and open interest does not decrease, be cautious of a chain reaction of liquidations;

• How does the CPI reading land? Above expectations would raise the probability of interest rate hikes, putting pressure on risk assets; if it falls as expected, the $80,000 mark would become the new target;

• How will the whales handle the $9.07 billion in profits? If signs emerge of concentrated profit-taking, the support at $78,000 and even further below will face challenges.

Finally, a word: do not predict, only respond. Before the data lands, the structure of the chips, liquidation data, and macro signals are more reliable than any trading instinct. The $78,000 battle continues, and the decisive hand lies not in the market, but in tomorrow's CPI. Keep an eye on the observation points and have the contingency plans ready; let time handle the rest. SafeX: Annxvvc

The above content is a logical analysis based on public market data and information, meant solely for sharing within a technical analysis framework, and should not be construed as investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all levels and scenarios are hypothetical projections. Please assess rationally and be aware of the risks. SafeX: Annxvvc

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