BTC Holds the $76,000 Demand Zone, Open Interest Rises; Can It Break $82,000 After CPI?

Summary: Bitcoin recently fell from $82,300 to $77,600, with a short-term adjustment of 5.7% at one point, but the price subsequently rebounded, and open interest increased again. Meanwhile, long-term holders continued to take profits, and the market is waiting for U.S. CPI data to provide direction for the next steps. If the inflation data comes in below expectations, the $82,000 to $82,800 area could again become a target for bullish breakouts.

Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, market news, and practical insights.

BTC Undergoes Quick Adjustment, But the $76,000 Demand Zone Remains Firm

Bitcoin touched about $82,300 at the beginning of September, and then fell by 5.7% in five trading days, reaching a low near $77,600.

However, this round of adjustment did not break the overall structure at the 4-hour level; the price is still running above the $76,000 demand zone, showing signs of rebound after the low.

This means that although the market has experienced profit-taking, there is still a significant buying force below.

For the current BTC, the area around $76,000 has become a very important defensive zone in the short term.

If this position can be consistently defended, then the recent adjustment is more likely to be understood by the market as consolidation within an upward process, rather than a complete trend reversal. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, market news, and practical insights.

More Notably: Open Interest in Contracts is Rising

After the price adjustment, the open interest in the Bitcoin futures market began to increase again.

This indicates that traders are re-entering the derivatives market, and also means that the market's attention to the next directional trend is heating up.

Previously, when BTC retested $82,000, open interest on Binance rose nearly 8% within 24 hours, temporarily exceeding $10 billion, and the BTC-denominated open interest also rose to about 125,830 BTC.

But it's important to note here:

An increase in open interest does not necessarily mean a bullish outlook; it also means increased leverage, which could amplify liquidations for both bulls and bears in the event of rapid price fluctuations in the future.

Therefore, what is truly worth observing next is not just the increase in open interest alone, but whether the price can achieve a positive correlation with open interest. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, market news, and practical insights.

Long-term Holders Are Selling, But BTC Has Not Clearly Broken Down

This could be one of the more interesting points in the current market.

Data shows that since the beginning of August, the supply from long-term holders has decreased by about 98,500 BTC, while the Spent Output Profit Ratio rose to 1.14 in September, indicating that some long-term holders are realizing profits from the previous rise.

Under normal circumstances, a large number of long-term holders taking profits would typically exert significant selling pressure on the market.

However, this time BTC did not break below the $76,000 demand zone due to this.

Instead, after experiencing adjustment, it showed signs of rebound again.

This indicates that the market may be absorbing this selling pressure.

If long-term holders continue to release their positions but BTC can still maintain above $76,000, it further suggests that real buying power below is still relatively strong. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, market news, and practical insights.

CPI Will Determine Whether $82,000 Can Become a Breakthrough Target Again

The variable that the market is truly waiting for has gradually shifted to U.S. CPI.

The U.S. August CPI will be released on September 11, and it is also one of the most important inflation data points before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 16.

Currently, there is still considerable disagreement in the market on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September. Recent strong employment data has already raised interest rate expectations; therefore, if CPI shows strong performance again, BTC may continue to face pressure from rising interest rates and a stronger dollar.

Conversely, if CPI comes in below expectations, the market might lower its concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening policy.

Then BTC would have the opportunity to retest the pressure area around $82,000. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, market news, and practical insights.

$82,000 is the Next Key Position

From a technical structure perspective, the $82,000 to $82,800 area remains the most important supply zone above BTC.

Previously, BTC has tested this position multiple times but has not formed effective breakouts.

The current 4-hour structure still leans bullish; if the price can regain above $82,000 and further break the previous high pressure near $82,800, the market may begin to open up greater upward space.

Conversely, if CPI is significantly above expectations, and BTC falls below $76,000 again, it may damage the rebound structure.

Therefore, what is now most worth watching is not whether CPI will be good or bad, but whether BTC can hold the key position after the data is released. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, market news, and practical insights.

Bitcoin Lemon's View

Currently, the structure of BTC has not shown significant weakness.

Although long-term holders are realizing profits, the price still holds the $76,000 demand zone, and open interest in contracts is beginning to rise, indicating that market funds are refocusing on the next directional choice.

In the short term, $76,000 is the position that bulls need to defend.

Above, attention should be focused on the $82,000 to $82,800 area.

If CPI is mild, interest rate expectations ease, and BTC can break this pressure zone with volume, then $82,000 may no longer be just a resistance level but could become the starting position for the next wave of the market.

If CPI is unexpectedly high, then caution is needed for the risk of rapid retraction brought about by increased leverage.

Every day, we'll keep you updated on the hot topics in the crypto market, showing not only what news is happening but also helping you understand the logic and opportunities behind the trends. 👀🚀

Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, market news, and practical insights.

Conclusion

Recently, although BTC experienced a rapid adjustment of 5.7%, the $76,000 demand zone remains effective, and the price is showing signs of rebounding.

Meanwhile, the profit-taking by long-term holders has not caused a significant uncontrolled decline, and open interest has rather increased again.

Next, CPI will become an important catalyst to determine short-term direction.

If BTC can hold above $76,000 and break through the $82,000 to $82,800 area again, then the market may open further upward space.

Therefore, the real key in the current market is not whether "BTC will rise," but whether after CPI, bulls can turn the crucial resistance level of $82,000 into support. Follow the public account "Bitcoin Lemon" for daily market analysis, market news, and practical insights.

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