Since August 26, oil prices have been rising almost every working day, and Trump's response to the rising oil prices has shifted from a quick decline to one that will happen after the midterm elections. Although Iran indeed hopes to influence the Republican elections by raising oil prices, if Iran truly waits until after the midterms to actively open up Hormuz, Trump is really overthinking it.

If Trump currently lacks the ability to solve the high oil price issue, he will still lack the ability even after the midterm elections. The U.S. and Iran are currently in a stage of testing who can endure more. Iran attacks U.S.-bound ships, the U.S. attacks Iranian tankers, and the U.S. is blocking Iranian ports; in reality, neither side is faring well.

In fact, both Iran and the U.S. have the desire to negotiate again, but the conditions for renegotiation necessarily involve both sides wanting to take the initiative, which is also the main reason for the current stalemate. Therefore, I think a more powerful mediator is still needed to push this forward. I heard before that China is already trying, but I don’t know if it will be effective; after all, continuing to blockade Hormuz will still impact the entire world.

Unless Iran opens part of Hormuz, which could relieve some pressure on the U.S., it now depends on the significance of this step.

Regarding Bitcoin, I haven't been buying recently. On one hand, the interest offered at current low prices is not good; on the other hand, with the rise in oil prices, the market may suddenly associate with interest rate hikes, especially if the war intensifies or inflation data worsens. So, I will hold off until the CPI data comes out before reconsidering the price and starting to invest.

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