Continued Thoughts on Shorting Oil

It has been a while since I properly discussed oil prices. Firstly, I am still continuing to short oil; I personally do not see any issues with this overall direction.

Last week, I added to my positions at WTI (CLUSDT) $92.5 and Brant (BZUSDT) $97. The next point for adding positions is temporarily $95 for WTI (which might be adjusted to $96) and $101 for Brant.

In one week, the price of WTI exceeded the warning line of $90 and also surpassed the highest value in July after the ceasefire agreement at $93.5.

Many friends are waiting for Trump's TACO, but in reality, Trump may not have the space for TACO right now, as it is necessary to return to the previously signed temporary ceasefire agreement. The biggest divergence in this agreement is whether the U.S. military withdraws first or if Hormuz opens up first, and a deeper layer is whether the U.S. supports Hormuz tolls.

So simply put, there are probably two possibilities that can lead to a drop in oil prices soon:

The first: Iran charges for Hormuz, adopting a new Iranian-Oman route, opening it to countries or regions that did not participate in the conflict, including Iraq and China. If a semi-open situation like this can occur, it could alleviate oil prices.

The second: sit down and negotiate with the U.S. again. In the past two days, I have seen many reports stating that both the U.S. and Iran are seeking opportunities for renegotiation; they just haven't found a step down yet, and I believe the U.S. and Iran will definitely return to the negotiating table; it's only a matter of time.

Then there's the view on prices:

Firstly, I made the same mistake again in this round that I did in previous rounds, which is greed. In fact, during this increase, I had at least ten days in which I could have taken profits and exited. At the highest point, my profits were around 70%, but due to greed, even when I saw the reversal, I did not care, which led to an increased unrealized loss now.

Actually, unrealized losses are not a big problem for me; I truly do not care about unrealized losses, but the funding rates are a tangible payment, and this part of the funds has already accounted for about 20% of the margin used, so this money has really been wasted. This needs to be reflected upon.

Since the re-escalation of conflict on July 7 until now, it has been two months, and the price of WTI has risen from $67 to $95. This increase is much less compared to the first time the war started; last time it reached $120 in 40 days, while this time it took 60 days just to reach $95.

Therefore, I firmly believe that the increase going forward may be limited. For now, I still feel that $120 is the ceiling; even if it does truly touch $120, it will take a long time.

To put it in simple terms, from the low price at the start of the conflict to the current highest price, in 60 days, it has not risen by $30, while there is still a $25 gap to reach $120. Each dollar upward may be due to worsening events. Of course, the longer the war continues, the greater the space for forced increases in oil prices, which I completely agree with.

But I do not believe this will be a quick process. Right now, it is a war of attrition; the U.S. is blockading Iranian ports, and Iran is blockading Hormuz. The whole world is paying for this war, and if WTI touches $100 again, the U.S. inflation panic will certainly spread and intensify.

I do not know where prices will go if they continue to rise, but my current margin is set to $120, and if WTI exceeds $105, I will double my funds to short. I do not really believe that such signs can maintain up to the midterm elections; right now, Iran is just stalling for time—each day they delay brings them closer to the midterm elections, which is indeed annoying the Republicans and Trump.

Currently, Trump has not yet found a better plan. The so-called economic blockade has indeed brought trouble to Iran, but in the face of a theocratic state, these problems have not yet erupted. However, as time goes on, if there is no improvement, an eruption will certainly occur, so the likelihood of both sides sitting down to negotiate remains the highest.

My viewpoint has always been to short oil at highs; the higher the price, the more I short.

@Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, all-in-one trading for prediction markets

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。