Today is Wednesday, and the cryptocurrency market continues to maintain high level fluctuations. However, as the volatility range continues to compress, the next three days are likely to welcome a real directional choice.
The current contradiction in the market is very obvious: the liquidity is providing support, but the macro environment is putting pressure.
On one hand, since the rebound from the bottom, spot buying has been continuously flowing in, significantly enhancing support below. Recently, every technical pullback has ultimately been less than market expectations, indicating that funds are still willing to accumulate at critical positions.
On the other hand, the macro environment is not friendly. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, international oil prices are nearing $100 per barrel, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury bond has broken through 4.8%, with inflation pressure becoming the market's focal point again. Coupled with the upcoming U.S. August CPI on September 11 and next week's FOMC meeting, bulls are also hesitant to launch large-scale attacks easily.
Market sentiment has noticeably warmed up. The CMC fear and greed index has risen to 72, entering the greed zone, with a significant increase in 24-hour trading volume of derivatives. Both bulls and bears are engaged in intense games at high levels.
Therefore, the current market resembles a **"support from spot market liquidity below, and macro negative pressure above"** tug of war. As the CPI approaches, this balance is hard to maintain for too long.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Opinion: High shorts and low longs, key caution for directional breakout around CPI.
BTC is still operating within a high-level range, and there has been no clear unilateral trend formed in the short term, but there is still overall adjustment pressure on the technical side.
The 4-hour Bollinger bands have started to widen, and the MACD continues to run below the zero line while maintaining a death cross, indicating that short-term bearish momentum has not completely ended. Meanwhile, the high position death cross structure on the daily chart has yet to be broken, and there is still demand for a larger cycle correction.
However, there is persistent spot buying below, so bearish attempts to accelerate in the past have not formed a lasting breakdown.
The current focus should be on the 78000—80500 large range.
Before a real breakout occurs, continue to use a strategy of high selling and low buying; if macro data like CPI pushes prices to break through the range with volume, then it is necessary to abandon the oscillation mindset and follow the trend.
Support: 78000-78400, 77600
Resistance: 79300, 80000-80500
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
Opinion: Focus on low buying before directional confirmation, with high shorts as a supplement, but beware of crowded long positions.
ETH has recently performed stronger compared to BTC, one of the core reasons being the continuous strengthening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate. As long as BTC remains stable, ETH often has greater upward attack elasticity in the short term.
Currently, ETH is still operating above the 15-minute and 30-minute supports, showing a strong structure, but there has not yet been significant volume acceleration, indicating that while funds are willing to buy, a true trend breakout has not been formed.
Attention should be paid to the sentiment in the contract market.
The funding rate for ETH has surpassed the usual benchmark level, and bullish sentiment is noticeably stronger than that for BTC. This provides some support for short-term prices but also means that long positions are gradually becoming crowded.
Therefore, it's important to remember:
The funding rate is the "thermometer" of market sentiment, not a direct buy or sell signal.
If the exchange rate continues to strengthen while the price breaks through 2530—2550 with volume, ETH still has further upward room; however, if long positions continue to crowd and the price fails to break through, caution should be exercised regarding quick pullbacks due to concentrated profit-taking.
Support: 2480, 2450, 2430
Resistance: 2520, 2530-2550
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