The market is gradually approaching the position we expected. Yesterday, it briefly fell below 78,000, reaching a low of 77,600. Currently, the market has recovered to 78,736. I understand your feelings about making profits, but it's time to remind you that Lao Cui often throws cold water on everyone's high spirits. From my observations over the past two days, one thing is clear: the current decline can be defined as a gradual drop, as the market digests the negative news of potential interest rate hikes in advance. This is not good news for short-sellers. Contract users need to listen carefully; yin and yang complement each other. If the price can stabilize above 80,000 this week, we can expect hopes for interest rate cuts and clear policies. For short-sellers, the returns may be greater; once the interest rate cut turns into a hike, or remains unchanged, the push from clear policies could lead to a waterfall drop of at least 5,000-10,000 points in Bitcoin, which would create an instant waterfall effect, with impacts and returns for everyone being at least three times greater.

The current trend is completely opposite. Before this, there was a frenzy over interest rate hikes. Today, Reuters reported that U.S. debt has surpassed 40 trillion. It is clear that capital has begun to turn bearish, and precautions against a waterfall effect have started. Even if both predictions are completely realized, it is unlikely to create a waterfall effect. Watching last week's trend, I thought there would be one last extreme attempt to entice buyers, but the market has deviated. Short-sellers need to remain cautious and manage their risks. Today, data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has reached 59.4%, while the chance of maintaining the current interest rate is 40.6%. This data also indicates that an interest rate cut is definitely not coming; in September, there are basically no positive news for bulls. We can confirm that bears are ruling the market, although the downward pressure is not as severe as we initially estimated. Contract users just need to pay attention that on the day of the meeting's decision, if a sudden release of the decision to maintain the original interest rate occurs, it may cause a rebound in the short term, but the decline will continue thereafter.

Summary by Lao Cui: You no longer have to worry about September's trend; we have made all possible outcomes clear, and it's merely a distinction between currencies. As for the CPI data, it no longer influences the probability of an interest rate cut; the pathway to an interest rate cut has been completely blocked. You can ignore any good news for September and think about the next phase of interest rate cuts. The worst-case scenario this year is that there are no cuts, only hikes, which could lead to a short-term bear market for the crypto circle. Regardless of whether it's a medium- or long-term outlook, it’s fine for contract users to short. Just control your stop-loss points; this is a market where you can make money. The depth of Ethereum’s decline may exceed Bitcoin’s by 2%-5%. You should control the risks yourself. For those still holding positions, we have already mentioned earlier that short positions have been opened at 73,000. This week marks the beginning of exiting those positions, and next week will be the timing for exiting. To put it bluntly, even if the signals for an interest rate cut arrive, there is no ability for a rise in September; everyone can short! The previously mentioned target of reducing at least half of the three bullish candles is still valid; this chart awaits time for verification!

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