The upcoming earnings report for Oracle $ORCL will have a significant impact on the entire AI capital market. ORCL is a barometer of the AI bubble and is also the biggest risk. ORCL is the largest AI data center operator after a few major tech giants, with very high expectations for AI computing power PRO orders, but it has extremely poor cash flow, and bond CDS has already surpassed the 2008 high.

In this quarter's earnings report, several other AI data centers, including MSFT, AMZN, and other Hyperscalers as well as NBIS CRWV and other Neoclouds, have demonstrated solid order conversion and revenue growth to prove the monetization viability brought by AI capital expenditures, which has brought good increases to essential AI infrastructure targets, such as electricity, GPUs, and storage chips. However, the last company to release its earnings report, ORCL, has continuously faced negative news, with severe resistance in Wisconsin and New Mexico, raising concerns about implementation progress.

After the earnings report in June, ORCL announced a $40 billion financing plan, which includes $20 billion in equity, but it has not progressed. If this earnings report does not provide uplifting data, its financing plan may become even more difficult to advance, which is crucial for Oracle Corporation's survival. If the earnings report underperforms expectations, continues negative cash flow, and reduces capital expenditures, then industries related to AI infrastructure may drive down the entire Hyperscalers. Additionally, the infrastructure demand sector, including electricity and storage, will also be affected, potentially ending the current wave of AI sentiment from the end of July to now. The stock price of $BE, which is highly dependent on ORCL, may be the first to suffer a significant drop.

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