Although a new week has begun yesterday, the market lacks the driving forces of major funds due to the US stock market being closed, resulting in BTC and ETH fluctuating around resistance and support without forming a clear direction.
The biggest contradiction in the market still comes from the pull between **“continuous inflow of spot funds” and “increased expectations of macroeconomic tightening.”**
US employment data for August remains resilient, leading to increased market expectations for further tightening of Fed policy in September. US Treasury yields continue to stay high, creating certain pressure on risk assets.
Meanwhile, two important data points that will truly determine the short-term direction are about to emerge this week: PPI on September 10 and CPI on September 11.
Before the data is released, both bulls and bears lack reasons to proactively initiate large-scale trends, so the market is more likely to continue maintaining a range-bound consolidation; however, if the data deviates significantly from expectations, the currently compressed volatility may be released quickly.
However, there is a positive signal in the funding situation: BTC and ETH spot ETFs have recently seen continuous inflows of funds. This means that this round of market trends has more support from spot funds compared to merely a leverage squeeze.
Therefore, it currently looks more like:
The long-term structure still leans bullish, short-term enters a high-level adjustment; consolidating before the data release, looking for direction after the data is released.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Intraday fluctuations, short on highs and long on lows; long-term bullish, short-term risk of correction.
Since the low on July 1, BTC has completed several rounds of increases, recently hitting around 82,200 but clearly facing resistance, with the price gradually entering a high-level consolidation range.
The biggest short-term risk currently comes from technical indicators.
The 4-hour MACD is still in a death cross state and is gradually approaching the zero line. If it continues to spread downward, it indicates that the short cycle adjustment is not over, and the price may retest the support below.
On the other hand, this round of increase has spot fund support, so even if there is an adjustment, it should not be easily defined as a major trend reversal.
Before the PPI and CPI releases, continue with the range-bound approach:
Pay attention to resistance near 80,500-81,000, observe support at 78,600-79,000; only follow the trend after a real breakout of the range.
Support: 78,600-79,000, 77,600-78,000
Resistance: 80,500-81,000, 82,000-82,400
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: Fluctuating strongly, volatility higher than BTC, focus on seizing opportunities after spikes.
The current overall strength of ETH is slightly higher than that of BTC, but the volatility elasticity is also significantly greater.
In the short term, it mainly operates within a large range of 2,380-2,530, where the area around 2,500-2,510 remains a core position contested by both bulls and bears.
From a cyclical perspective, the 8-hour and 12-hour structures remain upward, so as long as BTC does not experience a major breakdown, ETH still has a foundation for further repair.
However, the biggest risk for ETH still comes from a sudden sharp drop in BTC.
If Bitcoin undergoes a rapid decline, the original short-cycle support for ETH can easily be breached instantly. But if BTC stabilizes afterward, these false breakdowns are often quickly recovered. Therefore, the most prohibited approach currently in the market remains chasing highs and cutting losses.
Compared to chasing orders in the middle of a range, it is more suitable to wait for confirmations of support or resistance after a rapid spike.
Support: 2,480, 2,465, 2,440, 2,400
Resistance: 2,510, 2,530, 2,550, 2,600
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This article is published by 【Huiying Community】, representing personal views only. Due to certain delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please use rational judgment and operate cautiously.
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