BTC Falls Below $79,000 Again as Market Reprices Interest Rate Expectations

Bitcoin has fallen below $79,000 again.

In the past 24 hours, BTC has dropped over 1%, reaching a low near $78,800.

More notably, BTC has failed to stay effectively above $80,000 for two consecutive weeks.

Meanwhile, ETH has dropped to around $2,480, SOL has fallen over 2%, and XRP has weakened concurrently.

The previously strong performer Zcash has also seen a significant pullback, with ZEC dropping nearly 5% in a single day, yet it still maintains over a 30% increase in the past 7 days.

On the surface, this appears to be an ordinary market correction.

But looking at the broader timeline, the core pressure on BTC is not simply technical, but rather the market is repricing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies.

Strong Non-Farm Payrolls, Why Is the Market Nervous Instead?

The U.S. August non-farm data released last week has become one of the turning points for the market.

In August, there were 162,000 new jobs added, significantly higher than market expectations.

At the same time, July's employment data was also revised upward sharply.

This means that while the U.S. labor market is not as robust as it once was, its actual performance still shows resilience.

For the Federal Reserve, this is not a particularly easy signal to handle.

Because if the labor market continues to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve may need to consider easing policies.

But if employment remains resilient, there’s still a justification for maintaining higher interest rates.

More importantly, the current market is also facing another issue:

Inflation has not completely disappeared.

So strong employment data has not brought a simple "economy is improving" sentiment to the market, but rather led investors to worry again about whether the Federal Reserve needs to continue maintaining or even tightening monetary policy.

This is also a key reason for the recent resurgence in interest rate hike expectations.

📌 If you wish to track BTC's key support and pressure levels daily, you can follow the official account "Bitcoin Spring" for ongoing market insights and trading logic.

Why Is BTC Under Pressure as U.S. Treasury Yields Rise?

After the non-farm payrolls data release, U.S. Treasury yields have remained high.

The 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.8%.

This is not a particularly friendly environment for risk assets.

The reason is simple.

When risk-free interest rates remain high, holding U.S. Treasuries can yield relatively higher returns.

Thus, the willingness of investors to endure higher volatility for allocating to BTC, U.S. stocks, and other risk assets may decrease.

On the other hand, rising Treasury yields usually indicate that the market is raising its expectations for future interest rate levels.

If the market believes the Federal Reserve will need to maintain high rates for a longer time or even reconsider rate hikes, the liquidity expectations for dollars will tighten further.

As a high-volatility risk asset, BTC is naturally susceptible to these shifts.

Therefore, the true pressure BTC faces now is not a specific price level, but rather:

Interest rate expectations are shifting back toward a hawkish stance.

Interest Rate Hike Probability Approaches 60%, What Is the Market Trading?

Currently, the market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week has risen to about 60%.

This means that interest rate hikes have re-entered market pricing from a previously relatively marginal scenario.

Of course, a 60% probability does not mean the Federal Reserve will definitely hike rates.

It more reflects the market's current uncertainty regarding policy pathways.

And this uncertainty itself is enough to increase BTC's volatility.

If upcoming economic data continues to support the "U.S. economy remains resilient" judgment, the probability of a rate hike may further rise.

Conversely, if inflation data shows a significant cooling, the market may reduce its bets on interest rate hikes.

So what truly determines market direction next is not simply watching the current probability of rate hikes, but rather:

Whether this probability will continue to rise.

PPI and CPI, the Two Most Important Cards Moving Forward

The focus of the market's attention is very clear moving forward.

Thursday is the U.S. PPI.

Friday is the U.S. CPI.

The significance of these two data points lies in their ability to further validate the current market's interest rate hike logic.

If both PPI and CPI significantly exceed expectations, the market may further worry about inflation accelerating again.

In this case, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike may continue to rise, and Treasury yields may face further pressure.

BTC may continue to be under pressure.

But if inflation data is significantly below expectations, market concerns about rate hikes could quickly diminish.

At that point, the hawkish expectations that arose from strong non-farm payrolls may also be recalibrated.

Thus, for the market in the coming days, the importance of PPI and CPI is arguably equal to that of the non-farm payrolls.

Why Is $80,000 for BTC Becoming More Important?

From a price structure perspective, $80,000 has become a very key psychological level for BTC recently.

Previously, BTC attempted multiple times to cross above $80,000 but failed to establish an effective breakthrough.

Now that the price has dropped below this level again, it indicates selling pressure still exists above.

If the macro environment continues to lean hawkish, BTC may further test the support below.

Currently, the focus should be on the area around $77,000.

This level is not only important in terms of price but will directly impact the market's judgment of the short-term trend.

If BTC can find support around $77,000 and reclaim $80,000, market sentiment might have a chance to improve.

However, if $77,000 also shows significant loss, the market may further enter a weak consolidation phase.

Therefore, instead of predicting whether BTC will rise or fall, it’s better to closely observe these two levels:

Whether $80,000 can stabilize again, and whether $77,000 can hold.

📌 If you want to continuously track BTC, ETH, and the impact of macro data on the market, you can follow the official account "Bitcoin Spring" to clarify important market changes and the underlying logic daily.

What Does Zcash’s Pullback After a Surge Indicate?

Apart from BTC, Zcash's recent performance is also noteworthy.

ZEC recently became one of the strongest assets in the market, maintaining over a 30% increase in the past 7 days.

However, today ZEC has seen a pullback of nearly 5%.

This kind of movement is very typical.

When market risk appetite declines, high elasticity assets that have previously surged often experience profit-taking first.

Therefore, ZEC's pullback does not necessarily mean the previous upward logic has completely ended.

What’s more worth observing is whether funds continue to flow into such high-elasticity assets and when market risk appetite will recover.

If BTC and mainstream coins can stabilize again, and ZEC and other high-elasticity assets get renewed funding interest, then the market's internal risk appetite may be repairing.

What the Market Is Really Trading Now Is "Interest Rates," Not Just Prices

Looking at the recent market movements, a fairly clear logic can be seen:

U.S. non-farm exceeds expectations
↓
The market worries again about Federal Reserve interest rate hikes
↓
U.S. Treasury yields remain high
↓
Risk assets are pressured
↓
BTC falls below $79,000
↓
The market waits for PPI and CPI to further verify

So right now, if you only focus on BTC's candlestick chart, you can easily overlook the real variables affecting the market.

For the upcoming market, the Federal Reserve policy expectations remain the main line.

And PPI and CPI are key data that will determine whether this main line will continue to strengthen or reverse.

📌 Mr. X of Web3: Don’t Rush to Judge Trends, Look at Three Variables First

The market is currently in a very typical stage of policy expectation game.

Strong employment data has reignited interest rate hike expectations.

High oil prices and other cost pressures have made the market worry about inflation.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, further constraining the valuation space for risk assets.

Thus, what’s most worth paying attention to next is not how much a specific coin has risen today.

But rather three variables:

First, will the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike continue to rise?

Second, can PPI and CPI provide signals of cooling inflation?

Third, can BTC stabilize above $80,000, and is the support around $77,000 effective?

If inflation data cools, and market concerns about a rate hike diminish, BTC's pressure may be released.

But if inflation continues to exceed expectations, the high rate environment may last longer, and risk assets will still face pressure.

📌 For ordinary investors, what’s most important now is not to guess whether BTC will rise or fall next but to understand the transmission relationships between macro variables.

Non-farm impacts employment expectations, PPI and CPI impact inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve determines interest rate direction, interest rates affect the dollar and Treasury yields, and finally transmit to BTC and the entire risk asset market.

This logical chain is more important than simply watching price movements.

—— I am Mr. X of Web3, with 6 years of growth in Web3, focusing on Bitcoin, the crypto market, macroeconomics, and industry trends. If you want to continuously track the impacts of BTC, ETH, HYPE, and macro data on the market, you can follow the official account "Bitcoin Spring." Understand the hot topics, insight into logic, and build your own judgment instead of just watching price fluctuations.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。