Dear brothers and sisters, listen carefully and remember the key points. This Friday's CPI data will absolutely be the critical dividing line for the market ahead!

This set of data will directly lock in the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction, determining whether to continue raising rates or to maintain rates. It will also directly influence the short-term fluctuations of Bitcoin, which is crucial for all our holdings and operations. Considering all the current macro fundamentals, overall inflation remains stubbornly high, but core inflation is expected to slightly decline. This leads to ambiguity in the upcoming rate hike expectations, and the market will continue to oscillate.

Let me first share the current mainstream market expectations: Overall CPI year-on-year remains unchanged at 3.4%, while core CPI year-on-year is expected to decrease slightly from 2.5% to 2.4%, with a month-on-month increase anticipated at 0.2%.

However, don't think that the market direction is unified; the discrepancies among Wall Street institutions are enormous! Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, two giants, have a mere 0.036 percentage point difference in their forecasts, yet their conclusions are entirely opposite—one predicts a rate hike, while the other predicts maintaining the current rate. This clearly shows how tangled and critical the current situation is.

Many people do not understand why inflation has not declined, but there are actually two key driving forces.

The first is oil prices. The current conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, with Brent crude oil exceeding $97 a barrel. Energy prices are on the rise, directly raising the inflation base. The market generally predicts that the September CPI month-on-month increase will likely reach 0.4% or even higher, with rising energy prices being the biggest push.

The second is stubborn structural inflation. Here, I'll correct a common misconception: While the core CPI is slightly declining, the PCE measure, which the Federal Reserve truly focuses on, is moving completely contrary to the CPI and continues to rise. Especially the super core PCE, which Powell emphasizes repeatedly, has now reached 3.9%. Inflation in healthcare, insurance, and various service industries is still quietly and steadily climbing, indicating that the pressure from structural inflation has not dissipated.

In addition, everyone must keep an eye on a key figure—the Federal Reserve's Waller, as his vote will be the ultimate key to deciding whether to raise rates in September!

Currently, market statistics show that the probability of a rate hike in September has slightly exceeded 60%, and Waller's position is very straightforward, leaving no room for ambiguity: he will vote based entirely on the core CPI month-on-month data.

As long as the core CPI month-on-month is 0.2%, he tends to pause the rate hike and maintain the current rate; if the month-on-month rate reaches 0.3% or higher, a rate hike in September will be almost certain, with no suspense.

Based on three scenarios, here are the Bitcoin trading strategies:

First scenario, which is the most probable: Core CPI month-on-month at 0.2%. The rate hike probability remains around 60%, and Bitcoin will experience a slight drop, with support in the range of 75K to 76K. There's no need to panic at this position, as it is an excellent buying opportunity; you can buy in batches during the drop.

Second scenario: Core CPI month-on-month at 0.3% or higher. The rate hike in September is practically confirmed, and the market will experience a wave of emotional selling, leading Bitcoin to likely drop to 73K, with extreme cases potentially touching 71K for support. In terms of operations, first, avoid the short-term downward risk and remain observant, waiting for the price to fall to the key support levels of 73K and 71K before gradually positioning long trades.

Third scenario: Core CPI month-on-month below 0.1%. The expectations for a rate hike will completely fade, market sentiment will reverse entirely, and Bitcoin will initiate a strong rebound, directly targeting above 82K. At this point, there's no need to hesitate; you should chase the upward trend and buy long, and if the 4-hour chart stabilizes above 83K, continue to increase your position for greater profits.

In conclusion: Before the CPI data is officially released this Friday, Bitcoin will not experience a one-sided surge nor a one-sided decline; overall, it will be a narrow range of oscillation for consolidation.

Therefore, there's no need for everyone to operate blindly or to fumble around frequently; patiently wait for the data release and execute according to our established strategy to steadily grasp this wave of market movement!

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