In the group, I saw someone mention that MA120 is the most effective indicator for the risk-reward ratio of bitcoin:native.

This is essentially two versions of the same thing as my previous strategy of investing 1 million U in BTC.

The returns on BTC have never been evenly distributed; the phases where it truly makes money and truly loses money are often highly concentrated.

From 2019 until now, most of the meaningful increases in BTC have typically been concentrated in a few short trend segments.

The second half of 2020, after 2023, and a few rounds following the expectations and official implementation of ETFs are essentially like this:

Once a trend is formed, you can earn back all the gains from the previous one or two years within a few months.

The opposite is also true.

The significant losses in BTC rarely come from a single day dropping 10%, but rather when the trend turns bearish, it may drop 20%, 30%, or 50% all the way down.

Therefore, the core strategy centered around MA120 is: try to stay invested during bull markets and try to reduce exposure during bear markets.

I keep 30% of my base position because once BTC enters a true major trend, I cannot be completely out of the market.

The 45% tactical position exists because BTC is also a very cyclic asset; the same 1 BTC bought at 70K and 50K may both be profitable in five years, but their capital efficiency is entirely different.

Therefore, the biggest issue with long-term holding of BTC is:

Is it worth enduring all the complete bear markets in order to capture those few extremely fat tail gains?

That's all there is to it!

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