According to the latest news from Bloomberg, due to the strongest El Niño this year sweeping across the globe, Thailand's sugar production next season may decline by at least 17%! 🧐

As a major global producer and exporter of sugar, Thailand typically ranks among the top three in sugar production worldwide. Due to its relatively small population and low demand, it is also the second-largest sugar exporter in the world, after Brazil!

According to historical patterns of El Niño speculation, there are the following mnemonic phrases:

Dry spells first hype palm sugar, Southeast Asia drought supply and demand tight.

Heavy rains hit copper due to mine disruptions, South America production halt causes prices to soar.

Rainfall in the Americas brings abundant soybeans and corn, ample supply means no need to stubbornly hold.

Extreme heat makes coal and electricity flourish, heat waves bring natural gas.

Insufficient hydropower leads to aluminum production cuts, cost pushes prices to soar.

This year and next year, it is highly likely that inflation will continue to spread due to El Niño, making relief increasingly difficult. The world will enter a new rate hike cycle, especially with the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision scheduled for the 18th of next week, where a rate hike is virtually certain! Risk assets will face a devaluation phenomenon due to rate hikes by major global countries, requiring some patience to wait for opportunities! 🧐

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