This week, Bitcoin continues the rebound structure that started from the low point on July 1. The daily level has formed a seven-segment upward structure and completed the first central point (Central A). Currently, the market has entered a stage of adjustment and re-rebound after confirming "Endpoint 5," while the top signals and overbought characteristics from the quantitative model indicate a high probability of entering a 2-3 week high-level box fluctuation, accumulating strength for the subsequent construction of the second upward central point (Central B). The mid-term position should remain empty and wait for observation until the trend's validity is confirmed, while the short-term relies on support/resistance level ranges, flexibly executing two plans A/B based on the resonance of the Chande theory structure and self-constructed quantitative model signals.

Regarding HYPE, the upward trend that began from the low point of $51.11 on August 2 has extended to the exit segment of the second central point (Central B), and the key to the subsequent movement lies in comparing the strength of this exit segment with the entry segment—whether momentum divergence occurs will determine if this round of upward movement ends. Technical indicators have shown overbought signs, and caution is needed when chasing higher prices.

In addition, a short-term long position operation on BTC completed last week based on the strategy has been successfully realized with about 4.45% profit, verifying the effectiveness of the "spread trading model" and "momentum quantitative model" resonance signals in real trading. Relevant trading details and review can be found at the end of this article.

This week's core trading viewpoint summary:

•Analysis of BTC daily level trend structure (detailed explanation in the first part)

•Forecast of BTC market this week and medium and short-term operation strategies (detailed explanation in the second part)

•Analysis of HYPE hourly level trend structure (detailed explanation in the third part)

•Forecast of HYPE market this week and short-term operation strategies (detailed explanation in the fourth part)

Last week's trading strategy market verification:

•BTC short-term trading effectiveness: Last week we completed a short-term long position operation (1x leverage) based on the strategy, successfully achieving a profit of about 4.45%. (Detailed explanation in the fifth part)

1. Bitcoin Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis

In the previous week’s review, we introduced the Chande theory analysis framework and systematically decomposed and located the rebound structure of BTC that started from the low point of $57,820 on July 1. This issue continues with that system, providing a deeper analysis of the internal structure of this rebound from the dimensions of trend structure, central evolution, and momentum divergence.

Figure 1 Bitcoin Daily K Line Chart

1. As shown in (Figure 1): Since the rebound from the low point on July 1, a clear seven-segment upward structure has emerged from (0-1) to (6-7); among them, (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4) overlap to form the first upward central point (Central A), with the upward exit segment (4-5) confirming its end around the line of $81,500.

2. Based on the structure judgment of Central A:

① The upward strength of the exit segment (4-5) is significantly stronger than that of the entry segment (0-1), and no momentum divergence is observed between the two.

② According to the monitoring of the self-constructed quantitative model: The "momentum quantitative model" forms a death cross; the "spread trading model" simultaneously triggers the top warning signal (white point in the figure). The resonance of both indicates that the market has entered the overbought range.

③ After confirming "Endpoint 5," the market has shown the adjustment segment (5-6) and the currently running rebound segment (6-7).

3. High-level horizontal fluctuation, the construction of the second upward central point is a high probability event

Based on the above three points: Since "Endpoint 5," the market is highly likely to enter a 2-3 week high-level horizontal fluctuation pattern. The bulls will use wide fluctuations to wash out the profits accumulated from the previous surge and will randomly build the second upward central point (Central B) within the box. Once Central B is completed, there is hope for a further upward trend to start again away from Central B.

2. Bitcoin Market Forecast and Operation Strategy for This Week

1. BTC Market Forecast for This Week

This week's core viewpoint: The probability of the market entering a box fluctuation is high, and close attention should be paid to the ending position of "Endpoint 7" on the daily line.

2. Core Resistance Levels

• First resistance zone: $81,700～$82,850 (previous important level)

• Second resistance zone: near $84,500 (previous important resistance area)

• Third resistance zone: $90,000 area (key integer level)

3. Core Support Levels

• First support level: $73,500～$75,000 (previous important support level)

• Second support level: $67,300～$69,100 (previous important support level)

4. Operational Strategy for This Week (excluding sudden news impact)

① Mid-term strategy:

Figure 2 Bitcoin _ Daily K Line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 2), the price has broken the "long-short channel," leading to changes in the short-term market structure. However, the pullback confirmation phase after the breakout has not yet been completed, and the effectiveness of the trend reversal is still to be confirmed. Given that the signals have not yet closed, the current mid-term position remains zero, mainly waiting with no positions.

② Short-term strategy: Use 30% of the position to set stop-loss points, looking for opportunities to make a "spread" based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30 minutes/60 minutes as the operational period).

③ In the short-term operation, to dynamically adapt to the complex evolution of the market, we pre-plan two operational proposals A/B.

•Plan A: Light position long trial in strong support zone.

• Opening: When the price falls to the above first or second important support levels, if a clear stabilization pattern appears and the quantitative model simultaneously issues a bottom signal, a long position of about 30% can be established.

• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss position.

• Closing: When rebounding near important resistance levels and combined with model signals, the position can be gradually closed for profit realization.

•Plan B: Light position short trial in strong resistance zone.

• Opening: When the price rises to the above key resistance levels, if a clear pressure drop pattern appears and the quantitative model simultaneously issues a top signal, a short position of about 30% can be established.

• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss position.

• Closing: When adjusting near important support levels and combined with model signals, the position can be gradually closed for profit realization.

3. HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure Analysis

This week's review will introduce the Chande theory analysis framework to systematically decompose and analyze the rebound structure of HYPE that started from the low point of $51.11 on August 2.

Figure 3 HYPE_4 Hour K Line Chart

1. Overview of Trend Structure

As shown in (Figure 3): The upward trend that HYPE started from the low point of $51.11 on August 2 can be clearly divided into an 11-segment upward structure from (72-73) to (82-83) at the hourly level.

2. Structure judgment based on Central A

• Composition of Central A: The segments (73-74), (74-75), and (75-76) overlap to construct the first upward central point (Central A).

• Strength judgment: Comparing the upward strength of the entry segment (72-73) and exit segment (78-79) of Central A, the upward momentum of the exit segment is significantly stronger than that of the entry segment, and no momentum divergence is observed between the two. Based on this judgment, after the end of segment (78-79), the price is expected to continue rising after consolidating through fluctuations.

3. Structure judgment based on Central B

• Composition of Central B: The segments (79-80), (80-81), and (81-82) overlap to construct the second upward central point (Central B). For Central B, (78-79) serves as its entry segment, while (82-83) serves as its exit segment.

• Current positioning and subsequent inference: The current price is in the operational phase of the exit segment (82-83). It is necessary to focus on the comparison of upward strength between this exit segment and the entry segment going forward. If momentum divergence occurs at the end of the exit segment compared to the entry segment, the probability of the current upward movement starting from "Endpoint 72" ending significantly increases. Conversely, if no divergence occurs, after consolidation through fluctuations, the price is expected to continue the original upward trend and reach new highs.

4. HYPE Market Forecast and Short-term Operation Strategy for This Week

1. HYPE Market Trend Forecast for This Week

① Core Resistance Level:

• First resistance level: Near $100

② Core Support Level:

• First support level: $83-$85 area;

• Second support level: $77-$80 area;

③ Core viewpoint for this week: Pay close attention to the ending position of the exit segment (82-83) of Central B, and compare it to the ascending strength of the entry segment (78-79) to confirm whether a momentum divergence relationship has formed.

2. HYPE Short-term Operation Strategy for This Week

① For holders (long position): Those who opened positions in the $50-$52 area according to the trading plan are advised to move the initial stop-loss point to around $80 to lock in profits; strictly adhere to the stop-loss discipline, holding for a rise.

② For those with no positions: If the price effectively stabilizes and shows clear buying signals while pulling back to the key support area of $83-$85, consider lightly entering a long position, while synchronously setting and strictly executing stop-loss orders.

③ Risk warning: The recent continuous increase in price has accumulated significant profit positions, and multiple technical indicators are in overbought zones. Therefore, at this position, avoid chasing high prices, and be vigilant about short-term retracement risks.

5. Review of Bitcoin Short-term Operations (08.31～09.06):

We strictly followed the operation plan and completed a short-term (long position) operation last week based on the trading signals issued by our self-constructed "spread trading model" and "momentum quantitative model," achieving a total trading profit of about 4.45%.

1. Short-term Trading Record: (See Table 1)

Summary of Bitcoin short-term trading details: (Leverage *1x)

Table 1

2. Review of Short-term Trading: (See Figure 4)

• Opening strategy:

a. The price had completed a full corrective structure previously. When the price fell to above $76,000, signs of stabilization appeared, and the K-line formed a "bottom division" shape;

b. The "momentum quantitative model" formed a momentum bottom divergence signal, resonating with the bottom upward signal from the "spread trading model."

Based on the above multi-factor signal resonance, we established a 30% long position at $77,388.

• Closing strategy:

a. The price rose to around $82,850, showing signs of stagnation, with the K-line forming a "top division" shape;

b. The "spread trading model" continually released top warning signals (white point + green point), followed by the signal band (blue) crossing below the skyline (green) and forming a top resonance signal with the "momentum quantitative model."

Based on the above top resonance signal, we executed a full exit around $80,836.

• Summary: This trade achieved a profit of about 4.45%.

3. Short-term Trading Illustration

Figure 4 BTC_60 Minute K Line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

6. Special Reminder

1. When opening positions: Immediately set the initial stop-loss level.

2. When profits reach 1%: Move the stop-loss level to the opening cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety.

3. When profits reach 2%: Move the stop-loss level to the position of 1% profit.

4. Continuous tracking: From now on, for every additional profit of 1%, the stop-loss level will be moved 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

The financial market is ever-changing, and all market analyses and trading strategies must be dynamically adjusted. All viewpoints, analysis models, and operation strategies mentioned in this article originate from personal technical analysis and are for personal trading logs only, not constituting any investment advice or operational basis. The market has risks; investment should be cautious, please do not make decisions based on this.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。