A new week officially begins, and the biggest contradiction in the market remains: short cycle is strong, long cycle is weak.

During the recent rebound, the trading volume has not expanded synchronously, and the daily momentum continues to shrink, so we need to focus on a certain trend—complete the final sprint with reduced volume, test the high point again, and then reverse downwards.

Previously, after the formation of a death cross at the daily high, several periods below 12 hours suddenly formed a bullish resonance, with a large bullish candle completing a short squeeze. This trend not only washed out the shorts but also caused the market to have obvious concerns about continuing to short.

But now, the daily chart has again shown a death cross opening downwards, and the real question has become:

Can this time the bears really form a trend?

Currently, moving directly into a large-scale unilateral decline still has certain difficulties as there is clear support at the 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour levels. Only if the bearish momentum on the daily chart truly expands and continuously breaks through these supports can the bearish trend be further confirmed.

Therefore, at the beginning of this week, it is still recommended to treat it with the thinking of high-level fluctuations, waiting for a breakthrough, rather than prematurely betting on a unilateral direction.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Direction unclear, go short at high, go long at low, focus on preventing the last spike before a decline.

Currently, BTC is still in a typical **“pressure above, support below”** structure.

From a long-term perspective, the daily and weekly charts are overall bearish. Especially after the death cross at the daily high, it has opened downwards again, with signs of renewed strengthening of bearish momentum; at the same time, the weekly chart also has a technical pullback demand.

However, the short cycle has not completely aligned with the bears:

There is strong support at the 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour levels.

Therefore, the risk of directly chasing shorts at the current position is still not low. The market could very well spike upward quickly before a true decline, testing the 80500 or even 81200 area, completing the final round of liquidity washing before choosing a direction.

In addition, last week's inflow of spot and ETF funds was relatively positive, providing a certain foundation for support below.

Currently, it is advisable to continue handling it with a fluctuating mindset:

Look for support near the support levels, look for stagnation near the pressure levels; do not prematurely bet on a large bearish trend before the daily volume breaks out.

Support: 78900-79300, 78500, 77500
Pressure: 80500, 81200, 82300

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: No clear direction yet, short cycle is bullish, long cycle is bearish.

ETH is currently similar to BTC and is also in a tug-of-war phase at high levels.

The cycles below 12 hours are generally inclined towards repair, while the daily and weekly charts still have adjustment demands, so it still belongs to the conflict between big and small cycle directions.

In the short term, the current price is close to the 30-minute support, but the 30-minute and 60-minute cycles are still in the middle of a pullback; smaller timeframes of 3 minutes, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes have already entered a low range, possessing some technical rebound conditions.

This means that the price may still fluctuate up and down repeatedly during the day, making it difficult to form a unilateral trend directly.

It is worth noting that the ETH/BTC exchange rate showed unusual movements yesterday, and the exchange rate itself is still in a daily bullish cycle. If the exchange rate continues to strengthen, even if BTC remains volatile, ETH may exhibit a relatively independent rebound market.

However, how long this trend lasts will still depend on whether BTC stabilizes.

Support: 2460-2471, 2440, 2400
Pressure: 2526, 2540, 2570, 2600
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This article is originally published by 【Huying Community】 and reflects personal views only. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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