Isn't it surprising that everyone doesn't know: "I saw the trend correctly" is separated from "I made money" by price, odds, position, and exit?

In the Yi Er Ge community, I often see very valuable things! I just finished reading his reflection from yesterday, which is extremely necessary to share with everyone!

I believe the most valuable ability in investing is understanding oneself, as well as the ability to correct mistakes in a timely manner (this relies either on one's own extreme reflection or on the advice from friends around you, both are very rare).

Why is it said that correcting mistakes is very difficult!?

Because you need to overturn your own views, even in public, and this entails not only the possibility of losing money but also the loss of face; if you are in it, you will realize it is actually very hard to do.

The thought process of Yi Er Ge the day before yesterday was: PONS has already opened up the imaginative space for Robinhood / Meme stocks → Historically, meme leaders could reach 500 million, 1 billion, or even 2 billion dollars → Therefore, BSC currently with 100 million, 200 million market cap like Niulai, Marscoin doesn't seem expensive → Plus Marscoin has the old themes of Musk + CZ, the imagination of Binance Alpha/Contract/Spot paths → So the current position seems good.

Then, yesterday, he promptly withdrew this thought; the reason for the retraction was not that Marscoin is definitely not viable, or that BSC Meme has no chance, or that the Robinhood market has ended, but based on several more important and deeper considerations:

1️⃣ Do not attempt to precisely judge whether the market has moved 30% or 70%.

This belongs to fantasizing behavior, almost subjective judgment.

2️⃣ This round is actually no longer considered early.

HOOD +20%, ARB +50%, UNI nearly doubled, Lighter nearly doubled, and PONS approached 10 times after being discovered by the market. In other words, the view that this is only the early stage of the market may not hold; if most people see something and are still preparing to participate, it is unlikely to be the early stage or the beginning.

3️⃣ What is truly worth sharing is “early information” and “replicable methods,” not specific price judgments.

4️⃣ Any method of making money has an expiration date.

I think this is the most valuable part of this entire text from Yi Er Ge, and certainly the most valuable to me. Robinhood's LP daily return last week could have been 5%–10% due to liquidity scarcity, so it was worth doing; now with Mint supply up, LP is only about 2% left, but you still bear the risks of stock decline, price volatility, and impermanent loss, thus the Risk/Reward of this strategy has completely changed.

Especially in Crypto, the effectiveness of making money is very clear; if you are not within the effective period, do not stubbornly hold on, do not force it, and especially do not deceive yourself.

So to sum up: a track can be very correct, but you can still buy something expensive ten times within the correct track.

To put it in my previous words: “I saw the trend correctly” is separated from “I made money” by price, odds, position, and exit.

So returning to the essence of investing, it is still about understanding oneself, a deep understanding of oneself, and a deep understanding of one's inner self and the environment one is in. You must be very clear about what you are good at and what you are not good at. Once you encounter an opportunity that you excel in, then boldly dive in. For what you are not good at, you can research and feel it, but be cautious when acting, using the smallest position to play, rather than taking a heavy position.

If you miss out, you miss out; it's not a big deal.

For example, every round of the market will be accompanied by MEME; after such a long time, you should know whether you can seize the new opportunities that arise. If you can't seize it, do not force it, and do not naively think that through so-called information and insider news, you will gain a fortune. Don't even mention whether the insider news is reliable; even if the insider news is reliable, it can only tell you when to enter, and when to exit the insider itself does not know. Also, if you profit from insider news nine times but lose once, it may wipe out all previous gains. Not being good at something means not being good at it, right!

Like the picture I posted this morning: Investment does not need to be correct every time but must ensure that you always have the next opportunity; if you end up killing yourself, then there will be nothing left.

@qiye_btc Yi Er Ge on Twitter, although he may not use it often, I still recommend it to everyone.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。