Strong Non-Farm Payrolls, Rising Rate Hike Expectations, Dollar and US Treasury Yields Under Pressure.

Looking at these keywords alone, BTC seems poised to continue falling.

However, the market did not follow the script completely.

The US added 162,000 jobs in non-farm payrolls in August, significantly higher than market expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. After the data was released, the market increased its bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September, with BTC dropping to around $78,649.

But here’s the question:

After the drop, why did BTC stabilize again?

Who exactly is buying near the $80,000 mark?

This may be the real area of focus in the market right now.

Strong Non-Farm, which should typically be bad news for BTC

The logic is actually quite simple.

Strong employment data indicates that the US economy is not showing signs of a significant slowdown.

For the Federal Reserve, this means there is not such an urgent need for a rate cut.

Thus, the market begins to trade again:

Rate hike in September.

Latest market pricing shows that the probability of a rate hike in September approached nearly sixty percent.

With rising rate expectations, this typically supports the dollar and US Treasury yields while putting pressure on risk assets.

Therefore, it is not surprising that BTC fell below $80,000 after the non-farm payrolls were released.

What is truly strange is that it did not continue to fall.

$80,000 may not just be a round number

BTC previously bounced back from around $70,000, standing back at around $82,000.

Then the strong non-farm data appeared, and the price rapidly retreated.

If the market had completely turned bearish, this should have been a very good “reason to sell.”

But currently, BTC has not shown a persistent downward trend.

This means:

Even after macroeconomic headwinds emerged, there remains support in the market.

These buyers may come from ETFs, institutional allocations, or funds that previously missed out and are now waiting for a pullback.

More importantly, with the inflow of funds from spot ETFs, the buying structure of BTC is changing.

For long-term funds:

A non-farm payroll report can change short-term trading but may not alter long-term allocation.

So what the market truly needs to observe now is not whether “non-farm is bearish.”

But rather:

How far can these bearish sentiments push BTC down?

What truly needs caution is “Non-Farm + Oil Prices”

If only the non-farm payrolls are strong, the market would not be too nervous.

But now there is an additional variable:

Oil prices.

On September 7, Brent crude was about $96.45 per barrel and WTI crude was about $91.85 per barrel.

Rising oil prices mean that the market is starting to worry about inflation again.

If the following develops:

Strong employment → High oil prices → Rising inflation → Fed becoming more hawkish → Yields increasing

Then the macro pressures facing BTC will increase significantly.

So the real issue is no longer:

“Will non-farm affect BTC?”

But rather:

“Will strong employment and high oil prices further alter inflation expectations?”CPI is the next card to be played

The non-farm data has already provided the first answer:

The US economy is not showing significant signs of a slowdown.

But the market is still waiting for the second answer:

How exactly is inflation doing?

The US August CPI will be released this Friday, and the market currently expects the overall CPI year-over-year to be around 3.4%, with core CPI around 2.4%.

This could determine whether the strong non-farm data is merely a short-term shock or will evolve into greater macro pressures.

If CPI continues to cool

Then the market may once again find a favorable combination:

Strong employment + Lower inflation.

The economy shows resilience, yet inflation does not spiral out of control.

Rate hike expectations may cool again, and US Treasury yields and the dollar may be under pressure.

In this scenario, BTC's current pullback might actually become a turnover.

$80,000 might also become a support level again.

But if CPI also exceeds expectations

Then it would be a completely different matter.

Strong employment + High inflation + High oil prices + High yields

Will compress the room for the Fed to further cut rates.

At that time, whether $80,000 can hold will truly face a test.

So now, do not rush to guess if BTC will rise or fall

What is currently worth observing is not whether BTC rises by 1% or falls by 2% today.

But rather:

After the emergence of macroeconomic headwinds, can it actually move down?

If every time bad news comes out, BTC quickly plunges but is later bought back, it indicates that the market's capacity for support is strengthening.

This is what’s called:

The dulling of bearish sentiments.

But if the next CPI exceeds expectations, and BTC breaks through key support with high volume, then previous “resilience” may only have been temporary.

Thus, the real importance of $80,000 is not that it is simply a round number.

But rather:

Is there enough genuine buying power here?

The real answer from the market has yet to appear

Currently, BTC seems a bit “twisted.”

On one hand:

Strong non-farm data.

Rising rate hike expectations.

Oil prices approaching $96.

On the other hand:

BTC is not continuing to weaken.

This implies that the market may not be solely trading on the “rate cut” narrative.

Institutional allocations, ETF funds, global liquidity, dollar credit, and BTC's own supply-demand structure may all be influencing prices.

So what is really worth questioning now is not:

Why hasn’t BTC risen yet?

But rather:

If the macro environment is so unfriendly, why isn’t BTC willing to genuinely drop?

The non-farm data has been dealt.

The CPI has yet to be revealed.

And $80,000 is waiting for the market to give the real answer.

 

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