Everyone, it's been a while. The Bitcoin price has skyrocketed to 82000. Don’t wait for Old Cui's article updates, just act according to the previous estimates; the current market is like this. Whenever there are interest rate hike or cut news, there will always be an unusual price movement. Every time we encounter this kind of market, some users will inevitably feel fear and panic, so Old Cui's absence at critical moments is to comfort those users. Even when the market analysis is thorough and it’s time to draw a conclusion, there will always be hesitation. Shorting above eighty thousand won't lead to losses; this is the interpretation of the mid-term market. Has anyone entered the market? The rise and fall of this market undoubtedly reflect the financial sector's interpretation of the Federal Reserve meeting. Earlier, a wave of interest rate cuts promoted by Vance directly stimulated Bitcoin’s surge, breaking the 82000 high and achieving a new recent high. The interconnected property is with gold and the tech sector of the US stock market. The evening's cooling off is undoubtedly due to the non-farm data, which supports a more obvious interest rate hike.

American data has been questioned by Old Cui since Yellen's visit to China in 2024. Monthly and weekly measurement data have no reference value; these data only revolve around hype and speculation, while annual repair data is what is worth referencing. Recently, the non-farm data had an expected value of 55,000, and the final data showed an increase of 162,000 jobs in August 2026. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29 recorded 206,000, exceeding expectations. Putting these two pieces of data together is also insulting to one’s intelligence, making it seem as if Americans think we, as investors, have the same IQ as some animals. When such data is released, the only question everyone should consider is, why publish this kind of data? At the same time, the American government and the Federal Reserve are naturally in an opposing state, moving 2 billion dollars to buy government bonds is indeed to support the Federal Reserve, and the support is also for interest rate cuts, different entities and mechanisms will interpret things from different perspectives.

There are mixed messages in the market, everyone should pay attention; the decisions on interest rate hikes and cuts are becoming increasingly ambiguous and need a certain logic to interpret. The outbreak of this data is more concentrated on the interest issues of short-term treasury bonds; a considerable amount of national debt needs to be liquidated, and whether this issue can be resolved will depend on the negotiations between both parties. Personally, Old Cui thinks the best method is to hike rates and then follow with cuts; regardless of whether it is a hike or a cut, everyone should not have excessive positions in the market. Oil and non-farm data both support rate hikes, and the upcoming inflation data is also extremely critical, both having reasons for support. Therefore, in the market, there will be voices advocating neither a cut nor a hike, reminding everyone again that maintaining the original interest rate while neither cutting nor hiking is still a bearish message. Currently, there are significant liquidity issues in the cryptocurrency circle; maintaining this price with publicly listed companies buying several hundred WU weekly cannot sustain.

Old Cui summarizes: From the current data, a rate hike is more probable, but judging from the perspective of what the Americans are worried about, raising rates is undoubtedly a wrong decision, especially regarding the technology and AI sectors they strongly recommend. Once they raise rates, they will definitely realize the risks; different physiological dispositions lead to different thought patterns, and previous financial crises will make Americans more cautious, perhaps leading to different choices. The increase in job positions was explained by Trump's team as due to the surge in the summer tourism industry, revealing their own lack of conviction. The battle between rate hikes and cuts has also entered a heated phase, maintaining this timeline is just a few months of gaming. For those looking to long, they must be cautious as the market can reverse at any time; even if a rate cut or positive news erupts later, the impact would make it very difficult to stabilize above the 92000 mark. The higher the price, the deeper the potential waterfall could be later; remember, the current situation is like walking on a tightrope over a cliff, be extra careful! Regarding interest rates, maintaining the current rates or hiking will lead to a return to the 70000 mark this year, while a rate cut looks towards 92000!

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