Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.72 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.8%, at $1.62 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $30.51 billion, increasing 0.39% in the past 7 days, with USDT holding a 60.08% share.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have increased in value while a few have decreased, including: BTC with a 7-day increase of 1.32%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 0.68%, SOL with a 7-day decrease of 2.99%, HYPE with a 7-day increase of 4.33%, and PONS with a 7-day increase of 449.7%.
Market Prediction (September 7 - September 13):
The RSI index is at 54.47 (neutral), the Fear and Greed Index is at 73 (greedy), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 36 (neutral).
Cryptocurrency Market Expectations: Primarily cautious, with macroeconomic factors or unlocking trends dominating direction. Recent rebounds are mainly driven by improved expectations for the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes and a temporary recovery in risk appetite, but September is traditionally weak, and with next week approaching FOMC meetings (15–16), volatility is expected to increase.
BTC: $75,000 - $83,000 (with potential for a pullback)
ETH: $2,300 - $2,550 (resistance at $2,530)
SOL: $90 - $110 (key support at $95)
HYPE: $73 - $88 (driven by Hashdex crypto ETF)
Risk Warning:
The probability of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve remains the largest macro variable
This week's rebound is primarily driven by Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaling a dovish stance, reducing September rate hike probabilities from 70% to about 50%. However, the probability of a hike is still above 40%, and if next week’s U.S. economic data (such as initial jobless claims or PPI) unexpectedly strengthens, rate hike expectations may quickly rebound, placing pressure on the cryptocurrency market once again.
Risk of a "false breakout" at the key resistance level of $83,000
BTC has attempted multiple breakouts in the $82,000-$83,000 area, all failing, as this area closely aligns with May's highs and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Some analysts view the current rebound as a potential "bull trap" and point out that institutional spot buying is inadequate, suggesting that the rebound could evolve into a distribution phase by large holders. If BTC encounters rejection again near $83,000 and volume decreases, a rapid pullback could be triggered, with the first target at $77,500-$78,000, and the second target at $76,000.
The derivatives market is crowded with long positions, and the retail investor position structure is weak
Data from the ETH futures market shows that retail long positions account for as much as 72.8%, while top traders (whales) hold only 61.6% in long positions—retail investors have a 12 percentage point higher bullish sentiment than whales, forming a classic "retail trap" signal, as the market rarely rewards such extreme consensus in directional bets. The derivatives market is currently in a "compressed spring" state, and once a direction is chosen, volatility may become extremely intense.
Understanding Now
1. Bitcoin Returns to $80,000, Daily Increase Exceeds 5%
After a brief pullback, BTC sharply rebounded on the evening of September 3, breaking through $81,000, with daily gains exceeding 5%. As of September 4, BTC was reported in the $81,000-$82,000 range, ETH rose to around $2,500, and SOL returned to $105. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased by approximately 4.82% over 24 hours to $2.72 trillion.
2. $140 million in short positions liquidated within one hour, short squeeze reappears
As BTC broke the $80,000 mark, the derivatives market saw a renewed short squeeze. Data shows that approximately $142 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated within one hour, with total short liquidations exceeding $315 million for the day, affecting nearly 110,000 traders.
3. Federal Reserve interest rate hike probability drops sharply from 70% to about 50%, becoming the core driver of the rise
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that if the inflation data improves in August, it will support keeping rates unchanged, and the dovish signal rapidly reduced rate hike expectations. CME data shows that the market pricing for a September rate hike dropped from 70% to about 50%. This dovish shift directly drove a broad rebound in risk assets.
4. G20 Asheville Meeting Commits to Establish Digital Asset Regulatory Framework
From August 31 to September 1, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors held a meeting in Asheville, USA, committing to formulate a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets to balance innovation and financial stability while recognizing that digital assets are a driving force for economic growth. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will prioritize supporting the digital asset ecosystem during this G20 presidential term.
5. SEC Chair Atkins: Expects the "CLARITY Act" to pass in the Senate on September 15
In an interview with Fox Business, SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated that he expects the "CLARITY Act" to pass in the Senate on September 15 and be sent to the president for signing, at which point the U.S. will become the "global cryptocurrency capital." Atkins also revealed that even if the bill encounters obstacles, the SEC will advance its own regulatory framework—the "Cryptocurrency Asset Regulatory Proposal."
6. Prospects for the "CLARITY Act" passing before the midterm elections change
Galaxy Research head pointed out that the House Republican leadership has canceled the voting agenda for September 21 and 28, and the House will only work for four days before adjourning until after the midterm elections, significantly reducing the likelihood of the bill passing before the elections. The bill had previously stalled due to disagreements between bank lobbying groups and cryptocurrency firms regarding platform revenue sharing issues.
7. HashKey Joins DTCC Digital Assets Working Group, First Asian Institution
HashKey announced its inclusion in the digital asset consulting services industry working group under the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), becoming the first Asian digital asset service provider to join the group. More than 100 global financial institutions currently participate in this working group, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Nasdaq, etc., to jointly discuss institutional issuance and settlement of tokenized assets.
8. Cronos Chain Suspends Service Due to Tectonic Attack, Involving $75 Million Vulnerability
The Cronos network urgently shut down its blockchain on August 31 to halt the exploitation of a vulnerability of about $75 million in the DeFi lending protocol Tectonic. The attacker manipulated the price of the TONIC governance token, raising it by 100 times within 20 minutes to borrow massively with inflated collateral. Cronos coordinated the network suspension through 100 validators, freezing approximately $60 million of stolen funds.
9. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) Shows Over $2.8 Billion in Paper Profit
Michael Saylor's Strategy company holds 840,447 BTC, with paper profits exceeding $2.8 billion, and an average holding price of about $75,653 per coin. Saylor's social media post "We're Back" has sparked market speculation that he will resume weekly Bitcoin acquisition plans.
10. Robinhood Chain DEX Trading Volume Grows 61% to $1.6 Billion Over 4 Days.
Macroeconomics
On September 2, U.S. ADP employment numbers for August came in at 38,000, the smallest increase since January, below market expectations of 48,000 and previous value of 44,000.
On September 2 at 22:30, the U.S. announced EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 28 at -445 (million barrels), forecast at -108.5 million barrels, previous value at 95,000 barrels.
On September 3, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29 recorded at 206,000, a new high since the week ending August 15, with market expectations of 205,000.
On September 4, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed maintaining the September rate at 51.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is at 48.1%.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
ICBC 2026 will be held in Singapore from September 7 to September 8.
Shanghai Blockchain International Week will be held in September 2026, hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Laboratory, where the "12th Global Blockchain Summit" will take place on September 23 at the Grand Ballroom of the Hyatt on the Bund in Shanghai as the core event of the international week.
ETHRome 2026 will take place in Rome, Italy from September 11 to September 13, 2026.
ETH Taipei 2026 will take place in Taipei from September 13 to September 15.
KBW2026 will be held in Seoul, South Korea from September 29 to October 1.
Key Events
The U.S. Senate will reconvene on September 14, and the process of the "CLARITY Act" will be delayed until after the reconvening.
The "CLARITY Act" will be subject to procedural voting in the U.S. Senate at 2 PM local time on September 15 (02:00 Beijing time on September 16).
On September 10 at 20:15, the Eurozone will announce the deposit facility rate of the European Central Bank up to September 10.
On September 10 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5 (thousands).
Project Progress
The UK Bitcoin reserve-listed company Satsuma plans to withdraw from listing on September 14, and Satsuma will also sell all Bitcoin holdings and return capital to investors.
The DeFi yield protocol Pyra has ceased operations, with withdrawals closing before September 15.
The South Korean exchange will begin after-hours trading for ETFs on September 14 (16:00-20:00).
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will hold a roundtable on September 17, 2026, to discuss the transition of the U.S. stock market to 24-hour trading.
Token Unlocks
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 163 million tokens on September 9, valued at approximately $1.44 million, accounting for 3.95% of circulating volume.
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 960 million tokens on September 10, valued at approximately $2.43 million, accounting for 3.01% of circulating volume.
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.29 million tokens on September 11, valued at approximately $6.88 million, accounting for 0.65% of circulating volume.
io.net (IO) will unlock 13.28 million tokens on September 11, valued at approximately $1.74 million, accounting for 3.32% of circulating volume.
About Us
Hotcoin Research is the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for you. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Research Reports," we analyze market trends for you; through our exclusive section "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + Expert Dual Screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Every week, our researchers will also meet with you via live broadcast to interpret trends and predict future movements. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct their investments based on a complete understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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