This morning's market can be described in one sentence: the bulls have completely taken control. Bitcoin surged strongly by $3,000 in 24 hours, directly breaking through the $81,000 mark. At the same time, the news that OpenReserve received a banking license from the U.S. national bank and raised $25 million led by a16z injected strong impetus into the entire cryptocurrency market. The combination of these two heavyweight pieces of news sends a very clear signal that traditional finance and regulators are accelerating the acceptance of cryptocurrency assets; this is no longer a self-indulgence of a marginal market, but the beginning of systemic allocation by mainstream capital. In the U.S. stock market, Strategy and Robinhood saw gains of over 10%, and cryptocurrency concept stocks surged across the board, indicating that market risk appetite has been completely ignited.

The current time is September 4th, 10:59 AM, with the latest price of Bitcoin at 80,823 USDT, a 24-hour increase of 3.7%. The fear and greed index has risen to 74, clearly in the greed zone, indicating that market sentiment has shifted from previous hesitation to actively chasing long positions. Bitcoin's market share remains high at 59.28%, and this market trend is still dominated by Bitcoin, with altcoins' independent market trends yet to fully unfold.

From a multi-cycle perspective, the daily MA5 and MA10 have formed a golden cross support near 79,000. The MACD histogram remains positive at 21.82, and the RSI is at 58.17, leaving plenty of room before reaching overbought levels, which indicates that the upward trend at the daily level is far from over. The 4-hour level is even stronger, with the MACD histogram at 464.50 and continuing to expand. Although the RSI has reached 75.30 and entered overbought territory, in a strong trending market, overbought conditions can persist, and should not serve as a sole basis for reversal. The 1-hour level shows short-term cooling signals, with the MACD just forming a death cross, the histogram at negative 39.35, and the RSI retreating from highs to 70.52, indicating that upward momentum at the hourly level is beginning to exhaust. The 15-minute RSI has dropped to 31.80, suggesting there could be a technical rebound in the short term, but the MA30 at 81,221 is creating short-term resistance, making the smaller timeframe weak.

Using the Qinglan TPV system to validate the current signals, the 1-hour EMA55 is at 79,036.58, and the current price of 80,823 is about 2.26% above EMA55. The last 8 1-hour candle close prices have all stood above EMA55, with zero cross-throughs, which does not meet the conditions for a range-bound area, representing a standard one-sided bullish trend area. According to the system rules, if the price closes above EMA55 for several consecutive candles, the trend direction is clearly bullish. However, it is important to note that the 1-hour MACD histogram is continuously shrinking and has formed a death cross, with the RSI falling from its highs, indicating that short-term momentum is diminishing. This does not meet the momentum exhaustion confirmation requirements in the system for long positions. In other words, the overall bullish outlook is fine, but the current hourly level is in a resting stage after a rise, making it not the optimal point for chasing long positions. The ideal time to go long is to wait for the price to retrace near EMA55 to show signs of stabilization, such as a bottoming pattern or long lower shadow, while the MACD histogram resumes a positive value or shortens the trend stop; this would make entering safer.

On-chain funding is also confirming the sustainability of this upward trend. The fact that OpenReserve has obtained a banking license means compliance pathways are further opening up, reducing barriers for institutional funds to enter. The Ethena programmatic buyback has started, with ENA rising over 10% in a single day, and the token buyback mechanism is reducing market selling pressure. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has dropped to 50%, and expectations for alleviated liquidity pressures are also supporting risk asset valuations. However, it should be noted that Polymarket has launched 20x leverage perpetual contracts, which could divert some spot funds into the derivatives market. Meanwhile, Abraxas Capital is increasing its ETH spot holdings while also preparing for short hedging, indicating that institutions remain cautiously optimistic. This kind of long-short hedging operation suggests that the market will not experience a smooth straight ascent; sharp fluctuations during the process are inevitable.

Regarding key defense and attack levels, the first resistance level above looks at the 81,500 to 82,000 area, which is a previous area of intensive transactions and an integer psychological level; a breakthrough here may accelerate toward 83,000. The first support level below is at the 80,000 integer mark, serving as the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. As long as the daily close does not drop below 80,000, the bullish structure will not be broken. Stronger support lies in the 79,000 to 79,200 area, which is near the 1-hour EMA55; this position is the last line of defense for the bulls and also the trend boundary defined by the Qinglan TPV system. As long as the price maintains above it, all pullbacks will be viewed as shakeouts rather than reversals.

In terms of trading strategy, the direction is clearly bullish, but do not chase highs in the short term. Aggressive traders can wait for the price to retrace to the 80,000 to 80,300 range, observe for bottoming patterns or long lower shadow stabilization signals in the 15-minute level before trying small long positions, setting a stop loss below 79,600, and targeting 81,500 as the first target, moving the stop loss to hold if it breaks through and aiming for 83,000. More conservative traders should wait for the price to retrace to the 79,000 to 79,300 area, which is near the 1-hour EMA55, confirming that the support is effective before entering long positions, with a stop loss set at 78,500 and targeting 82,000 to 83,000. If the price directly breaks through 82,000 with volume and the 15-minute level does not break on a retracement, it can also be seen as an opportunity to chase the breakout long, with a stop loss set below 81,500. It is particularly important to note that the current 1-hour RSI is still above 70. If the price repeatedly stalls between 81,000 and 81,500 and the MACD histogram continues to weaken, a short-term pullback to the 80,000 mark to confirm support may occur, so do not blindly chase long at this position with heavy positions.

In terms of risk warnings, the statement by Federal Reserve Governor Waller regarding the strong inflation in August potentially supporting rate hikes is currently the biggest potential negative. If inflation data exceeds expectations, the market may quickly retract, so it is crucial to strictly control positions and stop losses.

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