Brothers, the journey in the rivers and lakes is not afraid of distance, encountering kindred spirits along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiangye.

⚠️ The following is only a technical logical deduction of the market and serves for communication reference, not constituting any investment advice. The market is highly volatile, and contracts must strictly control positions and set stop-losses.

Tonight at 20:30, the major non-farm payrolls are the real defining star of this week. In the past 48 hours, the market has been extremely volatile: Bitcoin surged violently from 77,000 to 82,280, just a line away from the previous weekly high of 82,800; Ethereum rose from 2,377 to 2,528, and gold climbed to 4,510. However, after the peak, there was a rapid pullback, with bulls and bears fiercely battling at high levels.

Interestingly, mining tycoon Jiang Zhuoer cleared 100% of his BTC position at 82,050 and went short, aiming for 70,000 to 72,000. On one hand, there is continuous net inflow into ETFs for three days, giant whales frantically accumulating, and the double bottom confirmed at 77,000 creating a bullish base; on the other hand, there are big players clearing positions going short, short-term comprehensive overbought conditions, and a resistance wall of 1 million coins from 82,000 to 83,000. Tonight's non-farm payrolls will be the lifeline determining the direction.

1. Bullish Base: Fourfold Signal Resonance, Bottom Structure Much More Solid Than in May

First, let’s explain the logic behind the bulls; this wave of increase isn't without reason.

First, a substantial breakout in 4-hour volume, gradually increasing trading volume. Yesterday had four consecutive 4-hour bullish candles, with increasing trading volume. After reaching 82,000, there was a slight volume drop, but compared to the recent overall situation, it is still at a high level. On September 3rd, the daily trading volume of Bitcoin significantly expanded, forming a standard breakout pattern. After stabilizing above 80,000, market fervor for buying returned, reactivating the previously exhausted bulls.

Second, confirmation of the triple bottom at 77,000 with continually rising lows. The market structure is very clear, with the 77,000 level testing three times without effectively breaking down, and the lows rising continuously, stabilizing at 80,000. Compared to the 82,000 wave in May, this bottom structure is much more solid.

Third, continuous net inflows into ETFs and large whales accumulating assets. On September 3rd, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 358 million in a single day, with just BlackRock's IBIT alone contributing 269 million; this week has seen three consecutive days of inflows, completely reversing last Friday's outflow. Not only are ETFs buying, but large whales are also synchronously accumulating at lower levels: medium-sized whales have net bought 73,300 BTC over the past 60 days, the highest since April 21; super whales have increased their holdings by 43,300 during the same period. Institutional funds are indeed positioning themselves.

Fourth, retail investors are selling, chips are concentrating from the weak to the strong. Interestingly, small micro-wallets have been reducing their holdings, continually shifting chips from small retail investors to larger accounts and whale wallets. Historically, when such a phenomenon of concentrated chips occurs, a major level of market movement often follows.

The macro environment is also supportive: ADP data is favorable, unemployment claims data has boosted confidence, and Federal Reserve committee member Waller is "dovish," leading to a decline in the dollar and a plunge in U.S. Treasury yields. Expectations for a rate hike in September are decreasing, with spot gold and silver rebounding strongly, and all three major U.S. stock indices closing up, indicating a comprehensive rebound in risk assets.

Bullish Summary: Volume breakout + triple bottom + ETF inflow + whale accumulation + macro dovish remarks, five signals resonating together, forming a solid bullish base. 82,000 is a watershed; if it stabilizes with volume, the target looks towards 83,000 to 84,000; 83,000 to 84,000 is the bull market confirmation line, and only if it stabilizes with volume in this range can we say this is not simply a bounce but a trend reversal.

2. Bearish Signals: Big Players Clearing Positions Going Short, High-Risk Levels Cannot Be Ignored

However, just because the bullish base is solid does not mean one can blindly chase high prices. The bearish signals equally deserve attention.

First, Jiang Zhuoer cleared all his BTC at 82,050 and went short. Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Litecoin mining pool, cleared all BTC holdings at 82,050 and immediately went short, focusing on the 70,000 to 72,000 dollar range. His core reasoning is that ETF fund performance has weakened, with the first instance of outflow, but BTC still stubbornly pushed up to the upper edge of the 81,500 range, which in his trading framework is a typical high-risk signal of "weak funds yet rising prices."

It needs to be said objectively here: Jiang Zhuoer’s operation is a personal account choice, and there is currently no third-party verification of his position scale, leverage, and trading path. It cannot be directly equated with "miners collectively escaping the top." However, as a figure with a voice in the mining community, going all-in short at this position itself is a sentiment signal worth noting.

Second, 82,000 to 83,000 forms a wall of 1 million coins for liquidation pressure. The area above 82,000 to 83,000 is the 500-day moving average position and also serves as a liquidation pressure wall for old holders, with approximately 1.05 million BTC stuck at this position waiting to exit, creating considerable pressure. The rapid drop after BTC surged to 82,280 in the early morning indicates significant selling pressure at this position.

Third, the market is currently fully overbought, and a pullback will follow such a spike. From 77,000 to 82,280, it gained over 5,000 points in two days, with all cycles entering severely overbought territory. The 1-hour KDJ and RSI have turned down at high levels, forming a double top pattern. The likelihood of continuing to rally without a pullback to digest is very low.

Bearish Summary: Big players clearing positions to go short + 82,000 liquidation pressure wall + fully overbought short-term conditions, high-risk levels cannot be ignored. If it fails to break through 82,000 to 83,000, it will likely pull back to 80,000 to 78,000 to re-confirm support.

3. Core Contradiction: Solid Bullish Base vs Short-Term High-Risk, Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls Determine Direction

Currently in the market, both bulls and bears have hard logic, and neither can persuade the other.

Bullish cards: Continuous ETF inflow, whale accumulation, 77,000 triple bottom, macro dovish signals, solid bottom structure, medium to long-term bullish bias. Bearish cards: 82,000 million coin pressure wall, fully overbought short-term conditions, big players clearing positions to go short, high-risk pullback.

The core contradiction is: the large cycle bullish trend has opened up, but the short-term position is too high and needs a pullback to digest; tonight's non-farm payroll data will be the key to determining whether we will pull back first and then rise, or directly break through to new highs.

If the non-farm data is dovish (employment below expectations, wages fall), expectations for rate cuts will further rise, and BTC will likely volume breakout above 82,800, initiating a rally towards the 83,000 to 84,000 bull market confirmation line. If the non-farm data is hawkish (employment above expectations, wages rebound), expectations for rate hikes will increase, and BTC will likely surge and fall back, pulling back to the 80,000 to 78,000 range to re-confirm support.

The core principle for operations: do not chase highs, do not guess tops, wait for data. Before the data is released, operate with light positions and strictly set stop-losses; after the data is released, follow the trend.

4. Technical Analysis and Operation Strategies for Three Varieties

Bitcoin

• Market

  : Highest at 82,280 in the early morning, currently pulling back to 80,880, and is correcting the 1-hour overbought condition. 77,000 triple bottom confirmed, 80,000 is important support, 81,500 is daily high pressure, 82,800 is weekly high, 83,000 to 84,000 is bull market confirmation line.

• Long Position (Main Strategy, Waiting for Pullback)

  : Stabilize at the 80,000 to 79,400 range with a stop loss at 78,800 and aim for a target of 81,500→82,000; if broken, look for 82,800→83,500.

• Short Position (Betting on Pullback, Light Position)

  : If it rebounds and stalls in the 81,300 to 82,000 range, with a long upper shadow and engulfing bearish candle, attempt a light short position with a stop loss above 82,300, targeting 80,000→79,000; if it breaks down, look for 78,000.

• Follow-Up After Non-Farm

  : If data is dovish, a volume breakout above 82,800 and stabilization, look to add longs on the right side, aiming for 83,500→84,000; if data is hawkish, break below 79,000, look short, targeting 78,000→77,000.

  

• Ethereum

• Market

  : Highest at 2,528 in the early morning, currently retreating to 2,510, with 2,520 to 2,530 as a strong pressure zone. 2,475 is short-term support, 2,445 is an accumulation level, and 2,400 to 2,380 is strong support.

• Long Position (Main Strategy, Waiting for Pullback)

  : Stabilize on a pullback in the 2,475 to 2,445 range, layout multiple long positions, with a stop loss at 2,420, targeting 2,525→2,550; if broken, look for 2,600.

• Short Position (Betting on Pullback, Light Position)

  : If it rebounds and stalls in the 2,505 to 2,520 range, attempt a light short position, with a stop loss above 2,535, targeting 2,430→2,400; if broken, look for 2,380.

  

Gold

• Market

  : Continuously rising under the influence of the Federal Reserve's dovish remarks, highest at 4,510 at midnight, currently at 4,470. The 4-hour support level is between 4,427 and 4,435; as long as it doesn't effectively break below, one can participate in long positions.

• Long Position (Main Strategy)

  : Stabilize on a pullback at 4,427 to 4,435 range, layout long positions with a stop loss at 4,416, targeting 4,495→4,515; if broken, hold.

• Short Position (Only for Very Short-Term Betting)

  : If it rebounds to 4,510 to 4,515 and stalls, attempt a light short position with a stop loss at 4,530, targeting 4,470→4,435.

5. Key Price Levels Summary

6. Non-Farm Payrolls Night Trading Discipline

1. Do Not Chase Highs

   : Absolutely do not chase longs around 82,000; chasing highs has a poor risk-to-reward ratio and is easily swept by a pullback.

2. Do Not Guess Tops

   : Although there is selling pressure from 82,000 to 83,000, do not place heavy bets on the top until the bullish trend is broken; shorts can only be lightly bet.

3. Wait for Data

   : Before tonight's 20:30 non-farm release, hold light positions, strictly enforce stop-losses, and adjust following the data release.

4. Buy on Pullback

   : The overall bullish base in the larger cycle is solid; pullbacks to 80,000 to 79,400 (Bitcoin) and 2,475 to 2,445 (Ethereum) provide better long opportunities.

5. Follow Up on Breakthroughs

   : If non-farm data is dovish, Bitcoin stabilizes after volume breakout above 82,800; add longs with targets at 83,500 to 84,000 for the bull market confirmation line.

Stern Summary: This wave of bullish rise has a firm base—continuous ETF inflows, whale accumulation, triple bottom at 77,000, and macro dovish signals, affirming a medium to long-term bullish pattern. However, after a spike to 82,280, it is fully overbought, with heavy liquidation pressure at the 82,000 to 83,000 range, and Jiang Zhuoer's clearing to go short is also a sentiment signal worth noting. Tonight's non-farm is the defining star; if the data is dovish, breakout beyond 82,800 looks toward 83,000 to 84,000; if hawkish, pullbacks to 80,000 to 78,000. In terms of operation, avoid chasing highs, do not guess tops, wait for data, buy on supportive pullbacks, and light short around resistance levels, strictly maintaining stop-losses throughout.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is only a technical logical deduction of the market, and is for reference and exchange, not constituting any investment advice. The financial market is highly volatile; contract trading is extremely risky. Please trade rationally, strictly control positions, self-manage stop-losses, and take responsibility for gains and losses.

Thank you all for your trust and companionship. The market changes rapidly, and steady compounding is the long-term way to go. I am Jiangye, see you next time.

For real-time changes in the market, feel free to communicate and follow up together. Three lines: jyx9188

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