Brothers, the current market situation has left the bears stunned, with whales and ETFs aggressively accumulating at low levels. Now that BTC has reached a new high, many in the background are asking if we are going to see a direct shift upward?

To be honest, the position has reached a critical point, but whether it can effectively stabilize at 82000 largely depends on today's non-farm employment data to ignite the market.

Let's first look at the volume situation. On the 4-hour level, the bullish strength has clearly emerged, with four consecutive 4-hour bullish candles yesterday, and the trading volume has gradually increased. After rushing to 82000, the volume slightly retraced, but overall remains high compared to recent figures. In contrast, the bears were completely crushed in the 77000-78000 range, and are now basically in a passive position of being beaten. Looking at the daily chart, the trading volume on September 3 significantly expanded, creating a standard breakout pattern. After stabilizing above 80000, the market's enthusiasm for chasing higher has returned, and the bulls have been reactivated from their previous exhaustion.

The market structure is also very clear, the triple bottom at 77000 has been confirmed, with low points continuously rising, firmly holding 80000. The area around 82000-83000 is the 500-day moving average and acts as a selling pressure wall for old holders, with approximately 1.05 million BTC stuck at this position waiting to be sold, creating considerable pressure.

Now, let's look at the on-chain funds. The spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, with a net inflow of 358 million on September 3 alone, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing 269 million. This week marks three consecutive days of inflows, completely reversing last Friday's outflow situation. Not only are institutional ETFs buying, but whales are also synchronously accumulating coins at low levels. Mid-sized whales have net bought 73300 BTC over the past 60 days, reaching the highest since April 21; super whales increased their holdings by 43300 BTC during the same period, with institutional funds clearly planning their positions.

Interestingly, retail investors, on the other hand, are selling. Those small wallets have been continuously reducing their holdings, and the chips are transferring from small retail investors to large accounts and whale wallets. Historically, the phenomenon of chips concentrating from the weak to the strong often leads to a significant market rally. Continuous inflows from ETFs, collective accumulation by whales, and retail selling being absorbed are three resonating signals, firmly establishing the bullish foundation.

Speaking about my own judgment, the overall bias is bullish in the short term, but 82000 is a watershed moment. If we can stabilize here with volume, the target will look toward 83000-84000; if we can't break through, we will likely retrace to 80000-78000 to confirm support again.

Compared to the 82000 peak in May, this time we have three bottom tests at 77000, compounded by whales and ETFs continuously entering, which solidifies the bottom structure much more strongly. Remember, 83000-84000 is thebull market confirmation line; only when we stabilize above this range with volume can we say this rally is not just a simple rebound, but a trend reversal.

In terms of operations, the medium to long-term strategy needs to be adjusted; do not continue to wait for a deep pullback to 73500-71000. The strategy changed to: accumulate long positions in batches at the 80000-78000 retrace; additionally, if we see a volume break above 83500, then we will chase long positions, signaling a confirmation of a bull market. In the short term, it is highly probable that there will be a retracement to 80000, and a comfortable buying opportunity will arise upon the retrace.

Quality content is not easy to come by, please like, share, and follow for synchronized operations. (Public account: Big Bull Market Commentary)

Market recap does not constitute investment advice; cryptocurrency is volatile, and contract trading carries high risks, so please manage your positions wisely.

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