In the first two days of September, the overall pace is still relatively smooth.

1. Bitcoin: 77700 has already formed short-term pressure.

Yesterday we positioned long trades around 77000—77250, and the market moved relatively smoothly.

After the price approached 77700, I also hinted in advance that we could take some profits, executed in real-time.

Subsequently, the price dropped again, and some friends even asked:

Should we still hold the long position at 77000?

My answer remains very clear:

In a fluctuating market, if the structure isn’t broken, treat it according to the fluctuating mindset.

Why?

Since the previous low of 64500, Bitcoin has experienced continuous fluctuations, bottoming out at 62500 and 62800 before completing an upward move.

After rising to around 81400, it re-entered a high-level consolidation period.

So, the most important thing right now is not to rush to judge whether the "bull market has ended" or "a breakout is imminent," but to first see clearly:

Whether the high-level oscillation structure has been broken.

Currently, it appears that there is already noticeable pressure around 77700.

From a 1-hour perspective, the price has touched this area twice without effectively breaking upward, rising, falling, and testing again; the possibility of oscillation still exists in the short term.

Therefore, the current thought process is very simple:

Shorts at highs and longs at lows, repeat trades around this range.

Currently, focus on:

77700—76200

If it breaks above 78000, continue to focus on the pressure around 78300.

If it drops below 76200, then focus on the support at 75600.

And if the market directly breaks through the key position, there’s no need to panic.

For example, around 78130, this itself is a previously high area; if an effective breakout occurs later, we will readjust our strategy based on the market structure.

2. ADP is relatively weak; the real test is still non-farm.

Yesterday’s ADP data was relatively weak.

Simply put, ADP mainly reflects the employment situation in the U.S. private sector, and it is not the same data as Friday's U.S. non-farm employment report.

After ADP weakened yesterday, gold reacted relatively significantly, but Bitcoin and Ethereum did not show particularly strong unilateral trends.

This also indicates that the market is really waiting for Friday's non-farm report.

It’s important to note:

There is no "inevitably opposite" rule between ADP and non-farm data.

So don’t directly predict that if ADP is weak, non-farm must also be weak.

Before the non-farm data is released, I still insist:

Don’t bet on the results in advance; first, watch how the prices move.

If employment data continues to perform strongly, the market's expectation for interest rate cuts may be suppressed, and risk assets may still face short-term pressure.

But if the data shows clear weakness, the market may re-trade easing expectations.

So what’s really worth attention is not just the data itself, but:

After the data is released, whether the prices truly break through key positions.

3. Gold: 4455—4480 is the next key observation area.

Now let’s look at gold.

From the 4-hour structure, gold started to fall from around 4282, reaching a low near 4000, followed by a rebound.

Currently, the price has rebounded to near the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement, while also approaching the upper track of the descending channel.

These two positions overlapping together constitute a relatively obvious pressure zone.

Therefore, I am not rushing to chase long positions in gold at the moment.

If the subsequent rebound reaches:

4455—4480

This area, I will focus on observing short opportunities.

Of course, to truly confirm that gold is regressing significantly, we still need to see if the price can return to the interior of the descending channel and further break below 4373.

Once 4373 is lost, the descending structure will be further confirmed.

4. The most important thing now is not prediction, but waiting for the break.

Whether it’s Bitcoin or gold, the most significant feature right now is very obvious:

Fluctuations.

In a fluctuating market, the worst thing is to insist on guessing a final direction in advance.

Chasing long when it rises and chasing short when it falls often results in being hit from both sides.

My current thought process is still very simple:

If the range hasn’t broken, trade according to the range;

If a key position breaks, follow the trend.

Focus on Bitcoin 77700—76200;

For the upper range, pay attention to 78000—78300;

For the lower range, pay attention to 75600.

For gold, focus on 4455—4480, and for the lower side, pay attention to 4373.

This Friday's non-farm report is the real test that the market needs to observe closely moving forward.

The market will not give us answers early just because we are anxious.

So rather than guessing, it’s better to wait.

Wait for it to fluctuate, wait for it to choose, wait for it to break.

I only trade in markets that I understand.

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