2026-09-03 ｜ Bitcoin Market Analysis

Author｜Yanyu

BTC has dropped and then risen in the past two days: it fell from a high of 81,520 to 76,204, a drop of nearly 6.5%. Subsequently, it rebounded above 77,598, regaining the $77,500 mark. The sentiment is also lively: the net inflow of the US spot BTC ETF was $101 million in one day, with mainstream coins rising across the board, led by XRP. However, on the other hand, large long positions are still being liquidated, and the US non-farm employment report is about to be released. Is this rebound a stabilization or a continuation of the decline? Today, we will break down the market, capital, and news.

01 Market: Rebounded after dipping to 76,200, 1-hour golden cross but still in death cross on 4-hour

BTC fell from 81,520 to 76,204.5, a retracement of about 6.5%, then rebounded to 77,598, standing back above 77,500, shifting from sharp decline to repair in the short term.

Short-term signals are leaning warm: 1-hour MACD golden cross (DIF 128.1 greater than DEA 117.9, histogram +20.3), and the 15-minute is flat near the zero line, with a clear weakening of downward momentum.

However, the medium term is still not fully repaired: 4-hour MACD is still in death cross (DIF 1792.8 less than DEA 2014.3, histogram -442.9), and the price is still below the 4-hour EMA7 (78,309.9).

Conclusion: Short-term rebound confirmed, medium-term adjustment has not ended. This rebound can currently only be classified as a repair, whether it can upgrade to a reversal depends on the ability to break above pressure.

02 Key Levels: 77,000 is support, 78,500 is the watershed

• Support below 77,099—76,621: 15-minute Bollinger middle/lower band, the first line of short-term support.

• Life line below 76,204.5: recent low, also the life line of this pullback; if lost, it signals a deeper adjustment.

• Resistance above 77,875.9: high point of this rebound.

• Water divide above 78,484—78,500: 1-hour Bollinger middle band (78,484) and near the 4-hour EMA7 (78,309.9), is the most important position in the short term; only standing back here counts as a renewed strength.

• Resistance above 79,158.5: 1-hour Bollinger upper band; further up, look at 79,863.5 (1 hour ago high) and 81,520 (4 hours ago high, the overall ceiling).

Conclusion: Currently at 77,598, watch whether it can effectively hold above 78,500, and keep an eye on 76,200 below which cannot be lost.

03 News: ETF inflow of $101 million + Macroeconomic event window

First, let's look at the positives (capital + sentiment):

• Single-day net inflow of $101 million for ETFs: of which IBIT accounts for a large part (single-day net inflow of $115 million), institutional funds are flowing back, historically, ETF fund inflows have a significant positive correlation with BTC prices.

• Mainstream coins all surged: Bitcoin returned above $77,500, and over the past 24 hours, all mainstream tokens have risen, with XRP leading, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite.

• Regulations are continuously improving: The G20 finance ministers' meeting supports the regulatory pathway for digital assets, and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued new guidelines to expand virtual asset trading services.

• Interest rate cut expectations are warming: The expectation for a Fed rate cut in September is near 66%, with liquidity expectations favorable for risk assets.

Now let's consider the risks:

• Large long positions are still being cleared: Huang Licheng's ETH long position was liquidated, and MACHI's ETH long was partially liquidated, accumulating losses exceeding $27.52 million; even Strategy's counterpart whale is also liquidating BTC and ETH. Leverage risks have not been fully released.

• Non-farm data is about to be released: The US non-farm employment report is the biggest macro event variable this week, the quality of the data will directly amplify market fluctuations, and it is recommended to control positions before and after the announcement.

04 Conclusions and Operational References (for reference only, not investment advice)

Comprehensive judgment: Short-term repairs + ETF inflows have provided emotional support, but medium-term adjustments and leverage clearings have not completed, and non-farm data is the biggest variable. Currently, it is more suitable to respond within the range, neither chasing highs nor cutting losses.

Bullish approach: Stabilizing after a pullback to 77,000—76,200, with the 1-hour golden cross continuing, lightly take a long position, stop loss below 76,000, targets 77,875, 78,484, 79,158.

Bearish approach: Pressured after rebounding to 78,484—79,158, with a 4-hour closing in the red, lightly take a short position, stop loss above 79,863, targets 77,099, 76,204.

Core discipline: Fluctuations will be significantly amplified before and after the release of non-farm data, positions must be light, and stop losses must be set.

The above content is a technical logical inference based on market screenshots and publicly available information, for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, contract trading carries significant risks, please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance, strictly control positions, and set stop losses.

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