Yesterday's market trend basically operated within the fluctuation range we previously provided.
Since last week, we have emphasized that the support area to focus on is below 76,600—75,500. After the price tested this area the night before last, I personally took a buy position near 76,800.
Subsequently, the price rebounded to around 77,600, which is also the pressure point we have repeatedly reminded of.
So near 77,600, it is necessary to reduce positions or move stop losses for buy orders. The reason is simple: this position has not truly broken through and stabilized.
After noon yesterday, we attempted a short-term sell order again, and ultimately the price retreated downwards, reaching a low of around 76,100, basically achieving the second take-profit target.
However, it is important to note that this decline did not truly open up space below.
1. Hourly Chart: Limited Rebound Strength, 77,400 Remains Short-term Resistance
From the hourly chart perspective, after a dip near 76,150, the price recovered.
However, during the rebound process, the price never effectively broke through the previous resistance area.
Currently, there are two key levels to focus on in the short term:
77,400—77,800: Upper Resistance Area
Among them, 77,400 is a relatively direct short-term resistance; if it can stabilize above for an hour, the short-term structure will improve.
However, to truly continue the rebound upwards, a breakthrough and stabilization above 77,800 are still needed.
At present, after the price rebound, it shows more of a sideways consolidation, and the direction has not been completely chosen.
Therefore, at this stage, it cannot simply be defined as a unilateral decline. More accurately, it is:
Within the fluctuation range, the short-term focus is slightly downward.
2. 4-Hour Chart: Closing Price Determines Short-term Direction
The 4-hour level is currently more critical.
The price previously broke down through the important level of around 76,800 but quickly recovered thereafter.
This indicates that while there was selling pressure below, bears did not form a sustained breakdown.
The next focus should be on the 4-hour closing price:
If it can return above 76,900—77,000, the short-term structure will noticeably improve.
If it can further break through 77,400 or even 77,800, then the rebound has a chance to continue extending upward.
Conversely, if the price falls back below 76,900 and continues to weaken, then the fluctuation range may continue to seek support downwards.
Therefore, at present, the most important thing is not to predict, but to wait for the closing confirmation.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnoses, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account“Bitcoin Spring”,join the community for strategies!
3. Daily Chart: Continuous Decline, but Bears Still Haven't Truly Opened Space
Since reaching a temporary high on August 28, the daily chart has been in a continuous decline for several days.
However, there is a very important phenomenon:
Although the price has dipped, the daily candlestick body has not truly broken below the key area.
Yesterday's candlestick also showed a clear lower shadow, recovering after dipping.
Therefore, currently, the daily chart is more about high-level digestion rather than entering a clear bearish trend.
If it truly wants to confirm the opening of space downwards, it must at least see 77,000 being effectively broken and sustained confirmation.
For a larger upward structure to genuinely weaken, it still requires observation around 71,000—72,000, which is the 50% area of the previous rise.
Currently, there is still significant space away from this position.
Thus, the conditions for discussing "large-scale top" are not sufficient yet.
4. Weekly Chart: Still Bullish, but Top Risks Must Be Prevented
The weekly chart has not yet completely destroyed the bullish structure.
However, problems also exist.
Previous highs have not been effectively broken, and there has recently been a high-level decline structure. If this week’s closing price still cannot return to the key resistance area, potential top formations must be guarded against.
Thus, we should not completely ignore risks just because the daily chart has not truly broken down.
The most reasonable approach now remains:
Maintain cautious optimism in the larger cycle, handling the smaller cycle according to the range.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnoses, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account“Bitcoin Spring”,join the community for strategies!
5. Moving Averages: 77,800 is Currently the Most Clear Resistance
From the MA moving averages perspective, the 5-day and 7-day lines are currently concentrated around 77,800.
Moreover, the daily chart has had two consecutive candlesticks below the short-term moving averages.
Thus, 77,800 is not just a simple integer resistance level, but also a resonance pressure formed by short-term moving averages.
If the price can break through and stabilize above 77,800 later, the significance of the short-term rebound will be significantly enhanced.
Conversely, if it cannot stabilize, the price is likely to continue digesting within the fluctuation range.
More importantly, consider the 20-day moving average on the daily chart.
This moving average is still an important reference for judging the medium-term direction.
As time progresses, the 20-day moving average and the middle track of the Bollinger Bands gradually approach current prices, and a directional choice is likely to emerge in the coming days.
6. Bollinger Bands: Volatility is Being Compressed
The Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart have noticeably narrowed, with prices fluctuating around the middle track.
This indicates that short-term volatility is being compressed, making it difficult to determine the true direction solely based on the hourly chart.
The 4-hour chart also shows pressure, with the middle track about near 77,800.
Thus, from the Bollinger structure perspective, 77,800 remains a very important breakthrough level.
If the price continues to consolidate sideways, with the daily middle track gradually nearing, a directional choice will increasingly approach in the coming days.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnoses, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account“Bitcoin Spring”,join the community for strategies!
7. MACD: 4-Hour Downward Momentum Begins to Weaken
The hourly MACD is currently showing a rebound but remains below the zero axis.
The 4-hour MACD previously formed a death cross; however, bearish momentum still exists but has shown a certain degree of contraction.
This means:
The 4-hour chart is still bearish, but the speed of decline is slowing.
The daily MACD is still in the adjustment phase.
However, since it is still quite far from the zero axis, this death cross itself cannot be directly interpreted as a significant trend reversal at a larger scale.
The weekly MACD still maintains relative strength.
Hence, there are obvious divergences across different timeframes currently.
8. DMI and RSI: Short-term Direction Still Not Fully Confirmed
The DMI is currently more prominent at the 4-hour level.
Bears are dominant at the 4-hour level, and trend strength has increased; therefore, the 4-hour is currently relatively weak.
However, the trend strength on the hourly chart is markedly insufficient, failing to form an independent direction.
While the daily chart remains bullish, the bullish advantage is gradually weakening.
The RSI has also not provided particularly clear signals.
The hourly RSI is in neutral territory, and the 4-hour RSI has not yet regained the 50 mark.
Therefore, the best approach now is not to prematurely guess the direction but to continue waiting for the price to provide an answer.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnoses, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account“Bitcoin Spring”,join the community for strategies!
9. The Two Levels That Truly Need Attention Right Now
Integrating all timeframes, the current structure is actually very clear.
Upper Resistance
77,400—77,800
Here, 77,400 is the short-term resistance, while 77,800 is the more important breakthrough level.
If it can effectively break through and stabilize above 77,800, the rebound is expected to continue.
Lower Support
76,600—75,500
This is the support area we have been focusing on since last week.
As long as this area is not effectively broken, it can still be interpreted as fluctuating digestion rather than a large-scale trend reversal.
Among them, 76,800 is currently a more direct short-term support.
10. Today's Core Judgment
Thus, integrating the hourly, 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts:
Bitcoin has not yet left the fluctuation range.
On the technical front, a change has indeed emerged—
The price's focus has begun to slightly shift downward.
The reason is that 77,800 has formed a clear resistance while the rebound strength is temporarily insufficient.
However, at the same time, lower support still exists, and the daily chart has not completed a true breakdown.
Therefore, we cannot simply define the market as "starting to decline significantly."
A more accurate judgment is:
High-level consolidation, short-term focus is downward, waiting for key levels to complete directional choice.
The next key directions to watch are:
To the upside, focus on 77,400—77,800, especially whether 77,800 can effectively stabilize.
To the downside, observe whether 76,800 can hold and whether the supporting area of 76,600—75,500 is genuinely breached.
If 77,800 breaks through and stabilizes, the short-term rebound structure will be strengthened.
If 76,800 is effectively broken and further breaches 75,500, then the market logic will need to be reassessed.
So, at this stage, the most important thing is not to rush to judge the bullish or bearish, but to:
Wait for levels, wait for closing, wait for direction.
The market is still in a fluctuating phase, so respond according to the range; only follow the trend after a true breakthrough.
Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnoses, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account“Bitcoin Spring”,join the community for strategies!
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