It is still a day of turmoil between the United States and Iran. Just yesterday, when the war was starting to resume, the market was quite troubled. Today, on the other hand, the market is much more rational, with all three major U.S. stock indices closing higher: the Dow rose by 0.6%, while the S&P and Nasdaq each rose by 0.5%; oil prices also did not continue to spiral out of control, with Brent closing at $95.63 and WTI at $91.01.

This round of exchanges of fire is actually quite significant, marking the most intense escalation since July. The U.S. targeted locations along Iran's southern coast, and Iran subsequently attacked several bases housing U.S. troops. The market is now beginning to price the resumption of conflicts separately from the actual reduction in oil supply.

On that day, only four ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, below the average of 13 ships over the past ten days, with transportation still hampered. On the other hand, the U.S. claimed that around 17 million barrels of oil still passed through the strait on Monday, with Iraq also increasing its exports. This information has reassured the market that supply remains tight, but has not completely cut off, and the tail risks that were a concern yesterday have not continued to expand for now.

The rebound in U.S. stocks and the decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to around 4.78% also indicate that funds did not continue to trade as if there would be a complete cut in Middle Eastern energy supplies. What could push risk premiums higher again is a further decline in the volume passing through the Strait of Hormuz or significant damage to large oil and gas facilities.

However, recently, Bitcoin's stability has indeed been quite good, much stronger than I expected, which also indicates that investor sentiment for buying bitcoin:native is still quite stable. The focus this week is on Friday's non-farm payroll data, and the rest is just waiting for stability between the U.S. and Iran.

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