From the low point of $1,384 in early 2026, it rebounded all the way up to nearly $2,500, an increase of over 70%. Many people started shouting that "the bull is back." But just as everyone was in high spirits, the market suddenly turned downward, forming a standard M-shaped pattern in the short term, with the current price dropping back to around $2,377, a daily decline of 1.66%.
1. Daily Trend: Rehabilitative Rebound After a Plunge

First, let's broaden the perspective to see where ETH currently stands.

In July 2025, after ETH reached a peak of $4,957.67, it began a brutal decline, crashing down to the low point of $1,384 in early 2026, with a maximum decline of over 72%, causing countless bulls to be liquidated.

Subsequently, the market stabilized around $1,384, starting a rehabilitative rebound, and the current price is around $2,377, marking a rebound of about 72% from the low point.

But note that the nature of this rebound is repair after a crash, not the start of a new bull market. From the daily Bollinger Bands perspective, the price is still operating below the middle band, and the large-scale downward trend has not been completely reversed. MACD is operating below the zero axis; although DIF and DEA were once close, they have recently widened downwards again, and green bars continue to be released, indicating that bearish strength on the daily level is still present.

2. Short-term Warning: 15-Minute M Head is Confirming a Break

Narrowing the cycle down to 15 minutes, the danger signals become clearer.

After ETH attempted to break $2,490 without success, it formed a standard double top (M head) pattern:

• Left top around $2,490, the first wave peak was blocked

• Retracement to $2,381 forming the neckline

• Right top around $2,480, failed on the second attack, high point slightly lower than the left top

• The current price has fallen below the $2,381 neckline, confirming the effectiveness of the break

The M head is a classic bearish reversal pattern, and once confirmed, the measured target for the decline is in the range of $2,270-$2,280. In other words, if the neckline at $2,381 cannot be quickly reclaimed, there is approximately $100 of downward space for ETH in the short term.

Looking at the indicators, the KDJ J value has already fallen to around 6, entering a severely oversold area, which means a technical rebound can occur at any time in the short term, but the nature of the rebound is more likely to be confirmation of a pullback after the break, rather than a trend reversal.

3. Key Positions in the Bull-Bear Game

Currently, ETH is in a very delicate position, with both bulls and bears contesting several key price levels:

Table

4. What to Do Next?

If you hold long positions

The current M head is confirming a break, and it is recommended to use $2,381 as the dividing line for long and short positions. If the price cannot quickly reclaim above $2,400, consider reducing positions or stopping losses; do not hold on stubbornly. The overall daily trend remains weak, and holding against the trend carries considerable risk.

If you want to short

After confirming the M head, it presents a good opportunity for short positions. Enter when the price struggles in the range of $2,381-$2,400 during a pullback, set stop losses above $2,420, and target $2,270-$2,280. However, pay attention to the potential short-term rebound due to the J value being oversold; do not chase shorts at the lowest point.

If you are observing

It is advised to patiently wait for clearer signals. Either wait for the price to effectively break below $2,381 and then confirm the pullback to follow the shorts, or wait for the price to again stabilize above $2,400 after invalidating the M head before considering longs. Do not rush to enter before the direction is clear.

5. Conclusion

ETH has rebounded from $1,384 to around $2,500, and the 70% increase has already consumed much of the oversold rebound momentum. The current daily trend remains bearish, and the short-term 15-minute M head is confirming a break, making the probability of a downward movement greater in the short term.

But also note that the severely oversold KDJ indicates that a rebound could occur at any time; do not blindly chase shorts at low levels. In terms of operation, control your positions well, strictly carry stop losses, follow the trend without going against the market.

The market never lacks opportunities; preserving capital and waiting for clearer signals before taking action is the key to long-term survival.
safew ETHxx1207

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。