Currently, the price of Bitcoin is stuck around 77150. I believe everyone has seen that after the market broke through the 77700 mark some time ago, it dipped to a low of 76350, then rebounded slightly for a correction. Many people see this rebound and think the bulls are warming up and that the market will rise, but I want to tell everyone, this rebound is purely a technical correction, it is not a reversal signal at all.

From the four-hour chart, the core issue is very obvious: the bullish volume continues to be weak, showing no momentum for an upward attack, while the bearish volume is gradually increasing, and selling pressure is accumulating.

Some friends may be confused. Since the market is weak, why hasn't there been a continuous big drop? This is actually easy to understand. Yesterday, the BTC spot ETF institutions still bought against the trend with 220 million funds, and long-term holders are also accumulating by buying the dips, which temporarily supports the market and prevents a deep crash.

However, everyone must be clear that long-term funds cushioning the market does not imply that the short-term market will rise. Currently, the daily chart has shown a very standard volume-price divergence pattern: rising without volume, price under pressure, the price has been oscillating for several days without breaking through the key resistance level upwards.

In trading, we must remember a core rule: the market will always move towards the direction of least resistance. Currently, the bulls have no power to attack, and the bears are continuing to accumulate strength, the optimal short-term trend is a consolidation drop and a corrective decline.

Moreover, in the latter half of this week, a series of important data releases will directly accelerate the market change, with each one being a key catalyst affecting BTC's movement.

First, tonight is Wednesday, at 20:15, the August ADP employment data will be released, which is a key precursor signal for Friday’s non-farm data. In July, ADP employment only increased by 44,000, significantly lower than market expectations. If tonight’s August data continues to weaken, it will provide slight support for BTC in the short term, but it will only be a temporary buffer and will not change the overall weak trend. At 2 AM, the Fed will also release the Economic Beige Book to give the latest economic assessment for the September FOMC meeting. Once the Beige Book releases signals of economic stabilization, market interest rate hike expectations will further heat up, continuously suppressing the coin price.

The biggest variable for this week’s market will definitely be the August non-farm employment data released on Friday at 20:30. Currently, the market expects new jobs of 55,000 to 65,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Remember two key ranges: if the data comes in below expectations, the market may rebound to test the 80,000 mark; if the data exceeds expectations, BTC will likely enter a deep correction, directly probing the 75,000 to 76,000 range, and may even touch the low of 73,500.

In addition to internal data, external macro risks exacerbate the situation. Currently, the U.S.-Iran conflict is escalating continuously, and Trump has confirmed new airstrikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, completely igniting geopolitical risks in the Middle East. As a result, WTI crude oil has stabilized above 88 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil is approaching the 93-dollar mark. Oil prices are soaring, directly pushing global inflation expectations higher.

Currently, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has soared to 57% to 67%, and the continuing increase in rate hike expectations exerts strong macro pressure on Bitcoin, which is also a core external factor hindering the market's rise.

Finally, let’s return to the market. The core internal driving force behind this downturn and market change is also the fundamental logic for our bearish view.

First, there is a serious shortage of incremental buying in the market; without new funds entering the market, the market naturally lacks the strength to rise;

Second, profit-taking continues to exit from the high positions, with short-term profits being cashed out;

Third, there is a large amount of trapped positions in the range of 80,000 to 83,000, and the heavy pressure from above is strong, thus any rebound will face selling pressure;

Fourth, bearish positions in the futures market are continuously gaining strength, with short positions accumulating, further suppressing the market.

So, to summarize: internal bearish accumulation, exhausted buying, external data being unfavorable, and macro pressure combined, a short-term decline in BTC is highly probable.

The subsequent target for the movement is very clear: the first correction target looks at 73,500, the second target looks at 71,500. Once it falls into this range, the downside space will be very limited, and there is no need to panic excessively.

Trading itself is a gradual process; meals must be eaten bite by bite, and markets must be walked step by step. From now on, we will not guess tops or bottoms and will closely follow data and market trends, adjusting as we go and accurately grasping the rhythm of each wave of market movement.

Quality content is not easy; please like, share, and follow for synchronized operations. (Public account: Big Bull Says Market)

Market reviews do not constitute investment advice; cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries high risks; please manage your positions reasonably.

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