Today, the war between the United States and Iran has begun to escalate, especially as the United States has started to strike at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard within Iran in response to attacks on its ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran certainly will not stand by; after the escalation of the conflict, US stocks and cryptocurrencies are falling, and oil prices are starting to rise. WTI has already surpassed $90, and the market is beginning to reprice this war. It is estimated that it will take until this round of fighting is over before things gradually calm down.

The rise in oil prices is likely to significantly push the concerns the US currently has about an interest rate hike in September. Although I still do not believe the US will raise rates in September, if oil prices continue to rise, even if there is no rate hike in September, there will be a risk of rate hikes in October or December. Additionally, the yield on Japan's 10-year bonds has surpassed 3%, which exacerbates the situation for the US risk market.

As for oil, I am not too worried at the moment, after all, the rise has a ceiling and won’t keep rising uncontrollably. Currently, I have raised the liquidation prices for WTI and Brent to over $120. Moreover, the rise in oil prices may likely promote Iran to charge for the Strait of Hormuz and open up oil transport to certain countries, which should already be planned.

Bitcoin is slightly troublesome; I have two dual-currency maturities tomorrow and the day after, with tomorrow's maturity being a $75,000 test and the day after being a $74,000 position in my own account. From the current outlook, the probability of reaching $75,000 tomorrow is not high. In the face of escalating war, I can only continue to push lower, but if the war ends, a rebound will come quickly.

Right now, it’s mainly about waiting for the midterm elections; for everything else, I can only maintain a strategy of buying on dips and will not predict the peaks, nor do I have the capability to do so.

@Gate Crypto, US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold, CFD, one-stop trading for prediction markets

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。